發(fā)布時間：2018-01-11 13:41

  本文關鍵詞：人民幣國際化進程中匯率變動對經(jīng)濟增長的長短期影響研究　出處：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 人民幣國際化 匯率 經(jīng)濟增長 外商直接投資 進出口

【摘要】：隨著我國人民幣國際化進程的加快,人民幣國際化日益成為政府和大眾關注的焦點。人民幣在一定范圍內(nèi)已經(jīng)發(fā)揮著國際貨幣的作用,國際地位不斷上升。隨著人民幣國際化的推進,人民幣匯率的波動對我國經(jīng)濟各個方面都將產(chǎn)生越來越重要的影響。因此,深入研究人民幣國際化進程中匯率變動對經(jīng)濟增長的作用機制和路徑效果,不僅有助于加深理解匯率與中國宏觀經(jīng)濟增長的長短期關系,也對有效防范匯率風險、保證人民幣幣值穩(wěn)定、避免國際收支的過度失衡有重要作用,有助于從宏觀層面構建一個促進人民幣國際化穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的良性循環(huán)機制。本文研究內(nèi)容主要包括以下幾個方面:首先,基于人民幣國際化加入SDR邁出人民幣國際化進程實質(zhì)性步伐的時代背景下,梳理了國內(nèi)外學者研究現(xiàn)狀,對我國人民幣國際化進程以及人民幣國際化進程中的匯率變動特征進行分析;其次,理論分析匯率變動對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響機制,本文選擇實際GDP作為宏觀經(jīng)濟的研究指標,理論分析匯率對外商直接投資、進出口貿(mào)易的影響,進而推出匯率變動通過外商直接投資、進出口對經(jīng)濟增長的長短期影響機制;再次,在人民幣國際化進程中匯率變動的長短期趨勢分析的基礎上,通過向量自回歸模型研究匯率變動、外商直接投資、進出口以及經(jīng)濟增長之間的互動關系,并分析匯率變動對經(jīng)濟增長的長期效應和短期效應。最后,根據(jù)實證研究結論以及以往相關研究,結合人民幣國際化這一環(huán)境背景,為我國的匯率改革提出相應政策。通過研究表明:(1)人民幣國際化過程中匯率的變動具有長期上升的趨勢性特征。短期內(nèi)人民幣匯率波動性較強,呈現(xiàn)上升和下降的交替變化,目前人民幣表現(xiàn)出了一定程度的貶值態(tài)勢;(2)人民幣國際化進程中,匯率上升與進出口貿(mào)易具有顯著的負相關關系,但是人民幣升值對進口的影響時間要短于出口,因此長期看,人民幣升值可能會造成凈出口的下降。人民幣匯率變動對FDI的影響在短期和長期具有阻礙作用,但影響不顯著;(3)總體上講,人民幣匯率上升在短期可能會對經(jīng)濟增長具有一定的正向沖擊作用,但作用并不顯著,長期看會對經(jīng)濟增長帶來顯著的負向作用。本文認為在人民幣國際化進程中,在防范人民幣匯兌危機的基礎上,要更加重視因國際需求增加帶來的人民幣匯率持續(xù)上升的問題,并制定穩(wěn)定匯率、保持經(jīng)濟增長持續(xù)性相關措施。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of RMB internationalization in China, RMB internationalization has increasingly become the focus of attention of the government and the public. The RMB has played an important role in the international currency in a certain range. With the development of RMB internationalization, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will have more and more important influence on all aspects of our economy. Further study on the mechanism and path effect of exchange rate change on economic growth in the process of RMB internationalization is not only helpful to understand the long-term and short-term relationship between the exchange rate and China's macroeconomic growth. It also plays an important role in effectively preventing exchange rate risk, ensuring the stability of RMB currency and avoiding excessive imbalance of international payments. It is helpful to construct a virtuous circle mechanism to promote the RMB internationalization and stable development from the macro level. The research content of this paper mainly includes the following aspects: first of all. Based on the background of RMB internationalization entering SDR, this paper combs the current research situation of scholars at home and abroad under the background of the substantial step of RMB internationalization process. This paper analyzes the process of RMB internationalization in China and the characteristics of exchange rate change in the process of RMB internationalization. Secondly, theoretical analysis of the exchange rate changes on the macroeconomic impact mechanism, the actual GDP as the macroeconomic research indicators, theoretical analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment, import and export trade. Furthermore, the mechanism of long-term and short-term influence of foreign direct investment, import and export on economic growth is put forward. Thirdly, on the basis of long-term and short-term trend analysis of RMB exchange rate change in the process of RMB internationalization, this paper studies the interaction among exchange rate change, foreign direct investment, import and export and economic growth through vector autoregressive model. And analyze the long-term and short-term effects of exchange rate changes on economic growth. Finally, according to empirical research conclusions and previous relevant studies, combined with the background of RMB internationalization. This paper puts forward the corresponding policy for the exchange rate reform of our country. The research shows that the change of exchange rate in the process of RMB internationalization has a trend characteristic of long-term rise, and the volatility of RMB exchange rate is strong in the short term. Taking on the alternately change of rising and decreasing, the RMB is devaluing to a certain extent; In the process of RMB internationalization, the exchange rate rise has a significant negative correlation with import and export trade, but the impact of RMB appreciation on imports is shorter than that on exports, so in the long run. RMB appreciation may result in a decline in net exports. The impact of RMB exchange rate changes on FDI is hindered in the short and long term, but the impact is not significant. Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate may have a positive impact on economic growth in the short term, but the effect is not significant. In the long run, it will bring a significant negative effect on economic growth. This paper argues that in the process of RMB internationalization, it is based on the prevention of RMB exchange crisis. It is necessary to pay more attention to the issue of the RMB exchange rate rising as a result of increased international demand, and formulate measures to stabilize the exchange rate and maintain the sustainability of economic growth.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F124.1

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