基于實物期權理論的農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)并購投資決策研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-27 10:12
【摘要】：在市場競爭日趨激烈的今天,并購是企業(yè)增強自身競爭力,實現(xiàn)自身發(fā)展的重要方法。作為企業(yè)的一項長遠戰(zhàn)略投資,并購的決策過程具有很大的不確定性與不可逆性,傳統(tǒng)的企業(yè)并購決策往往忽視了這些不確定性和不可逆性,進而導致其決策不是最優(yōu)的。實物期權注重對投資決策的不確定性進行管理,將實物期權方法引入企業(yè)并購決策中,有助于幫助企業(yè)決策者進行正確全面的分析問題,作出最佳的決策。 本文首先對農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)的概念、特征等方面進行了簡介,然后對傳統(tǒng)的企業(yè)并購決策理論進行了概述,詳細的介紹了并購的概念、形式、動因以及現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)法、時點價值評估法、相當價值評估法等傳統(tǒng)并購價值評估的方法,并對它們進行了橫向的比較,指出各種方法的優(yōu)點和不足,為將實物期權方法引進企業(yè)并購決策中的必要性打下了現(xiàn)實基礎。然后詳細介紹了期權和實物期權的概念及分類,實物期權的特點和作用,為將實物期權方法引進企業(yè)并購決策中的必要性打下了理論基礎。接著對企業(yè)并購中的實務期權特征進行了分析,證明把實物期權方法引進企業(yè)并購決策中具有可行性。接著介紹了如何利用實物期權的方法對企業(yè)并購進行價值評估、風險管理和戰(zhàn)略管理。最后在一個案例對農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)并購決策進行了實物期權方法的運用。 由于企業(yè)并購決策具有靈活性,標的資產(chǎn)價值具有波動性,并購的風險和收益具有不對稱性,并購過程包含著多種實物期權,而傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)并購投資決策方法隱含著一系列理想化的假設,認為投資環(huán)境是確定的,投資成本是可逆的,投資收益率是可預測的,進而企業(yè)可以采取剛性的決策準則,忽略了企業(yè)投資環(huán)境的復雜性,技術、市場的不確定性以及投資的不可逆性,因此傳統(tǒng)的企業(yè)并購決策理論都不能很好的指導企業(yè)并購決策。而以實物期權理論為基礎的企業(yè)并購投資決策,將金融期權方法應用于項目投資實踐,投資不確定性以及投資成本的不可逆性得到充分考慮,使得決策者通過延時決策最大化企業(yè)價值。本文的研究一定程度上更新了傳統(tǒng)的投資決策觀念,為企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略投資者和高層管理人員提供了理論基礎和新的思路。
[Abstract]:In the increasingly fierce market competition, M & A is an important method for enterprises to enhance their own competitiveness and achieve their own development. As a long-term strategic investment of enterprises, the decision-making process of M & A has great uncertainty and irreversibility. The traditional decision of M & A often ignores these uncertainties and irreversibility, which leads to the decision is not optimal. Real options pay attention to the uncertainty management of investment decision. It is helpful to help the decision makers to analyze the problem correctly and comprehensively and make the best decision by introducing the real option method into the M & A decision. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of agricultural enterprises are introduced, then the traditional theory of M & A decision is summarized, and the concept, form, motivation and cash flow discount method of M & A are introduced in detail. Time point value evaluation method, equivalent value evaluation method and other traditional M & A valuation methods are compared horizontally, and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods are pointed out. It lays a realistic foundation for the necessity of introducing real option method into M & A decision. Then, the concept and classification of option and real option are introduced in detail, and the characteristics and functions of real option are introduced in detail, which lays a theoretical foundation for the necessity of introducing real option method into enterprise M & A decision. Then it analyzes the characteristics of practical options in M & A, and proves that it is feasible to introduce the real option method into M & A decision. Then it introduces how to use real options to evaluate the value of M & A, risk management and strategic management. Finally, in a case, the real option method is applied to agribusiness M & A decision. Because of the flexibility of enterprise M & A decision, the volatility of the underlying asset value, the asymmetry of the risks and benefits of M & A, the process of M & A includes many real options. However, a series of idealized assumptions are implied in the traditional decision-making method of M & A investment, which holds that the investment environment is determined, the investment cost is reversible, the investment return rate is predictable, and the firm can adopt rigid decision criteria. The complexity of enterprise investment environment, the uncertainty of technology, market and the irreversibility of investment are ignored, so the traditional decision theory of M & A can not guide the decision of M & A. Based on the real option theory, the financial option method is applied to the project investment practice, the uncertainty of investment and the irreversibility of investment cost. It makes the decision maker maximize the enterprise value through the delay decision. To some extent, the research in this paper has updated the traditional concept of investment decision-making and provided a theoretical basis and a new way of thinking for strategic investors and senior managers.
【學位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F324;F271
本文編號：2392907
[Abstract]:In the increasingly fierce market competition, M & A is an important method for enterprises to enhance their own competitiveness and achieve their own development. As a long-term strategic investment of enterprises, the decision-making process of M & A has great uncertainty and irreversibility. The traditional decision of M & A often ignores these uncertainties and irreversibility, which leads to the decision is not optimal. Real options pay attention to the uncertainty management of investment decision. It is helpful to help the decision makers to analyze the problem correctly and comprehensively and make the best decision by introducing the real option method into the M & A decision. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of agricultural enterprises are introduced, then the traditional theory of M & A decision is summarized, and the concept, form, motivation and cash flow discount method of M & A are introduced in detail. Time point value evaluation method, equivalent value evaluation method and other traditional M & A valuation methods are compared horizontally, and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods are pointed out. It lays a realistic foundation for the necessity of introducing real option method into M & A decision. Then, the concept and classification of option and real option are introduced in detail, and the characteristics and functions of real option are introduced in detail, which lays a theoretical foundation for the necessity of introducing real option method into enterprise M & A decision. Then it analyzes the characteristics of practical options in M & A, and proves that it is feasible to introduce the real option method into M & A decision. Then it introduces how to use real options to evaluate the value of M & A, risk management and strategic management. Finally, in a case, the real option method is applied to agribusiness M & A decision. Because of the flexibility of enterprise M & A decision, the volatility of the underlying asset value, the asymmetry of the risks and benefits of M & A, the process of M & A includes many real options. However, a series of idealized assumptions are implied in the traditional decision-making method of M & A investment, which holds that the investment environment is determined, the investment cost is reversible, the investment return rate is predictable, and the firm can adopt rigid decision criteria. The complexity of enterprise investment environment, the uncertainty of technology, market and the irreversibility of investment are ignored, so the traditional decision theory of M & A can not guide the decision of M & A. Based on the real option theory, the financial option method is applied to the project investment practice, the uncertainty of investment and the irreversibility of investment cost. It makes the decision maker maximize the enterprise value through the delay decision. To some extent, the research in this paper has updated the traditional concept of investment decision-making and provided a theoretical basis and a new way of thinking for strategic investors and senior managers.
【學位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F324;F271
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