本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 土地估值��； 參考：《東華大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近二十年來(lái),我國(guó)沒(méi)有一個(gè)行業(yè)能像房地產(chǎn)一樣引發(fā)人民廣泛的關(guān)注和激烈的討論,這種情況的出現(xiàn),首先是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)行業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要地位,它占國(guó)內(nèi)GDP的比重不斷上升,已成為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱;其次是這個(gè)行業(yè)的“事多”,投資過(guò)熱、庫(kù)存過(guò)高、土地拍賣(mài)價(jià)格創(chuàng)新高、政策調(diào)整等等,諸如此類(lèi)的話(huà)題無(wú)一不引起人們的廣泛議論,同時(shí)也為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)增加了更多不確定因素,房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)陡增。房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的主要參與者,它主要依靠房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)獲利,能否選擇合適的估值方法對(duì)土地進(jìn)行估值直接影響到企業(yè)是否能拿到土地,以及項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)的收益。在眾多房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目估值辦法中,假設(shè)開(kāi)發(fā)法是房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)常用的方法。但利用假設(shè)開(kāi)發(fā)法做投資分析時(shí)很難量化投資的靈活性和項(xiàng)目投資價(jià)值,容易導(dǎo)致測(cè)算結(jié)果的不準(zhǔn)確,因此不能科學(xué)的給房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)提供依據(jù)。實(shí)物期權(quán)能夠根據(jù)不可預(yù)測(cè)的因素為決策采取不同策略,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的投資決策具有實(shí)物期權(quán)的特征,國(guó)內(nèi)外專(zhuān)家學(xué)者對(duì)于將實(shí)物期權(quán)應(yīng)用在房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)取得了一定成果,也根據(jù)經(jīng)典的理論模型建立了一些用于房產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資決策的實(shí)物期權(quán)模型。在房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資決策過(guò)程中引入實(shí)物期權(quán)的理論和方法,能最大限度地測(cè)量投資過(guò)程中的不可預(yù)測(cè)的因素,增加企業(yè)的投資機(jī)會(huì),充分考慮投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提高企業(yè)在房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資中的成功率。對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)外專(zhuān)家學(xué)者提出的模型,如b-s模型,經(jīng)常是直接套用經(jīng)典的公式對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行定價(jià),對(duì)于模型的參數(shù),如預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流等,都認(rèn)為是確定值。但是根據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的不確定性,這樣的模型具有很大的局限性,不能完全滿(mǎn)足房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)決策的需要。基于以上因素,本文在假設(shè)開(kāi)發(fā)法模型和期權(quán)定價(jià)公式的基礎(chǔ)上,以國(guó)內(nèi)當(dāng)前環(huán)境下的房地產(chǎn)投資決策作為研究對(duì)象,針對(duì)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的不確定性,利用假設(shè)開(kāi)發(fā)法建立項(xiàng)目的現(xiàn)金流模型,并采用實(shí)物期權(quán)的black-scholes模型和二項(xiàng)式模型處理應(yīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的不確定性。在本文最后一部分還以金華市湖海塘項(xiàng)目為例,運(yùn)用假設(shè)開(kāi)發(fā)法和實(shí)物期權(quán)法對(duì)其進(jìn)行了投資決策分析,測(cè)算項(xiàng)目的土地價(jià)值,并與其實(shí)際開(kāi)發(fā)情況相比較。案例分析表明了新的模型在較大不確定性的投資決策中更具有科學(xué)性,具有較大的理論和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:In the past two decades, no industry in our country has aroused the same widespread concern and intense discussion as real estate. This kind of situation arises first of all because of the important position of this industry in the national economy. Its share in domestic GDP has been rising and has become a pillar of our national economic development. Next, it is the "many things" in this industry, the overheating of investment, the excessive inventory, the high land auction prices, the adjustment of policies, and so on. Such topics have caused widespread debate and added more uncertainty to the real estate market, with real estate investment risk soaring. As the main participants in the real estate market, real estate enterprises mainly rely on the real estate development to make profits. Whether they can choose the appropriate valuation method to evaluate the land will directly affect whether the enterprise can get the land, as well as the income of the project development. In many real estate development project valuation methods, hypothetical development method is commonly used in real estate enterprises. However, it is difficult to quantify the flexibility of investment and the investment value of the project by using the hypothetical development method, which leads to the inaccuracy of the calculation results, so it can not provide scientific basis for the real estate enterprises. Real options can take different strategies according to unpredictable factors, and real estate enterprises' investment decisions on real estate development projects have the characteristics of real options. Experts and scholars at home and abroad have made some achievements in the application of real options in the field of real estate development, and have also established some real options models for investment decisions of real estate development projects according to the classical theoretical model. Introducing the theory and method of real option in the investment decision-making process of real estate development project can measure the unpredictable factors in the investment process to the maximum extent, increase the investment opportunity of the enterprise, and fully consider the investment risk. Improve the success rate of investment in real estate development projects. For the models put forward by experts and scholars at home and abroad, such as b-s model, the classical formula is often applied directly to price the real estate development project, and the parameters of the model, such as expected cash flow, are considered to be definite values. However, according to the uncertainty of the domestic real estate market, this model has great limitations and can not fully meet the needs of the real estate enterprises. Based on the above factors, this paper takes the real estate investment decision under the current domestic environment as the research object, aiming at the uncertainty of the real estate project, based on the hypothetical development method model and the option pricing formula. The cash flow model of the project is established by using the hypothetical development method, and the black-scholes model and binomial model of real options are used to deal with the uncertainty of the project. In the last part of this paper, taking Jinhua Lake seawall project as an example, the investment decision is analyzed by using hypothetical development method and real option method, and the land value of the project is calculated and compared with the actual development situation. The case study shows that the new model is more scientific in investment decision-making with greater uncertainty and has great theoretical and practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.233.4

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