【摘要】：在工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進程中,農村勞動力不斷向城市和非農部門轉移,務農勞動力減少對我國糧食生產造成一定影響。分析農村勞動力轉移與糧食生產方式、糧食產出及生產成本之間的變化關系,探究農村勞動力轉出后保障糧食生產的配套政策具有重要意義。論文對現(xiàn)有的理論和文獻進行了梳理,應用發(fā)展經濟學中關于農村勞動力轉移的經典理論,對已有研究的內容框架進行了分析。通過實地調研并歸納典型案例,分析了不同發(fā)展階段典型地區(qū)農村勞動力轉移的特點以及當地糧食生產的變化特征。為宏觀、定量把握農村勞動力轉移對我國糧食生產的影響,本文搜集整理了1978年—2012年全國31個省區(qū)的數據,按主產省和非主產省劃分,通過應用模型進行分析,結果表明農村勞動力轉移對糧食產出的影響微弱,而起顯著影響的因素為播種面積,其次分別為化肥使用量、機械化程度。為分析農村勞動力轉移與糧食投入要素之間的變化關系,本文還運用農產品成本收益數據進行了研究。結果表明,農村勞動力轉移致使糧食生產中的人工成本上漲,且其占糧食生產成本的比重越來越高,與產出增長相比較,勞動力轉移對糧食生產成本的影響更加顯著。論文還研究了工業(yè)化進程中日本農村勞動力轉移,結果表明勞動力快速轉移導致日本農戶出現(xiàn)分化,兼業(yè)農戶大量出現(xiàn),以及糧食播種面積和產量減少,糧食生產地位下降。為保障該國糧食生產,日本不斷完善社會化服務,大力普及農業(yè)機械,加強教育和培訓,并提高糧食價格與農業(yè)工資。綜合以上研究,本文結論是,農村勞動力轉移對糧食生產方式有兩方面的影響,積極方面主要表現(xiàn)為促進了土地規(guī)模經營和農業(yè)社會化服務的發(fā)展,但同時導致勞動力數量減少、老齡化問題較為突出;農村勞動力轉移對糧食產出并沒有太大的影響,但會引起人工成本上漲,這已成為推動糧食生產成本上漲的重要因素。在未來種糧勞動力減少、人工費用上漲的態(tài)勢下,穩(wěn)步推進農業(yè)生產,提高種糧收益是亟需解決的問題。為此本研究提出了加快適度規(guī)�；洜I、推進農業(yè)機械化、完善社會化服務、加強農村人才隊伍建設等政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the rural labor force is constantly transferred to the urban and non-agricultural sectors, and the reduction of the agricultural labor force has a certain impact on the grain production in China. It is of great significance to analyze the relationship between the transfer of rural labor force and grain production mode, grain output and production cost, and to explore the supporting policies for ensuring grain production after the rural labor force is transferred out. This paper combs the existing theories and literature, and analyzes the content frame of the existing research by applying the classical theory of rural labor force transfer in development economics. Through field investigation and induction of typical cases, this paper analyzes the characteristics of rural labor force transfer and the changing characteristics of local grain production in typical areas of different development stages. In order to quantitatively grasp the impact of rural labor force transfer on grain production in China, this paper collects and collates the data of 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2012, divides them into main and non-major production provinces, and analyzes them by applying the model. The results showed that the influence of rural labor force transfer on grain output was weak, and the significant influence factors were sowing area, followed by fertilizer usage and mechanization degree. In order to analyze the changing relationship between rural labor force transfer and grain input factors, this paper also uses the data of agricultural products cost and income to study. The results show that labor transfer in rural areas leads to the increase of labor cost in grain production, and its proportion in grain production cost is increasing. Compared with output growth, labor transfer has more significant effect on grain production cost. The paper also studies the transfer of rural labor force in Japan during the process of industrialization. The results show that the rapid transfer of labor force leads to the differentiation of Japanese farmers, the emergence of a large number of part-time farmers, the decrease of grain planting area and yield, and the decline of the status of grain production. In order to ensure the country's grain production, Japan has continuously improved socialized services, vigorously popularized agricultural machinery, strengthened education and training, and raised food prices and agricultural wages. Synthesizing the above research, this paper concludes that the rural labor transfer has two effects on grain production, and the positive aspects are mainly to promote the development of land scale management and agricultural socialized service. But at the same time, the number of labor force is reduced, the aging problem is more prominent; The transfer of rural labor has little effect on grain output, but it will lead to higher labor cost, which has become an important factor in pushing up grain production cost. Under the situation of decreasing labor force and increasing labor cost in the future, it is urgent to solve the problem of promoting agricultural production steadily and increasing the income of grain planting. Therefore, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as speeding up moderate scale management, promoting agricultural mechanization, perfecting socialized service and strengthening the construction of rural talents.
【學位授予單位】：中國農業(yè)科學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.6;F326.11

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