【摘要】：基于高分辨率遙感影像解譯得到新疆喀什市2002年與2013年兩期土地利用歷史數據,通過對兩期影像進行處理、分類、精度驗證以及對CLUE-S模型和Markov模型進行精度驗證,利用CLUE-S模型和Markov模型相結合的方法對研究區(qū)喀什市未來土地利用變化進行兩種不同情景的模擬預測,系統(tǒng)分析了兩種不同情景下土地利用變化的時空特征。結果表明:CLUE-S模型和Markov模型的相互結合使用成功克服了單一模型的不足,能夠對喀什市未來土地利用情況進行良好的模擬。因此,在設計的兩種情景模擬預案下,喀什市未來的建設用地均將持續(xù)增加,并以消耗大量的耕地資源為代價,并且約束情景模型Ⅱ城鎮(zhèn)規(guī)劃節(jié)約集約用地和基本農田保護預案是喀什市未來土地利用變化的推薦預案。
[Abstract]:Based on the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images, two periods of land use historical data were obtained from 2002 and 2013 in Kashi, Xinjiang. Through processing, classification, accuracy verification and accuracy verification of CLUE-S model and Markov model, two periods of images were processed, classified and verified. Two different scenarios of land use change in Kashi city were simulated and forecasted by using CLUE-S model and Markov model. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use change in two different scenarios were analyzed systematically. The results show that the combination of CLUE-S model and Markov model successfully overcomes the shortage of single model and can simulate the future land use of Kashi city. Therefore, under the two scenarios designed, the future construction land in Kashi will continue to increase, at the cost of consuming a large amount of cultivated land resources. And the constraint scenario model 鈪，

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