【摘要】：土地資源是一種有限的資源，隨著我國社會經(jīng)濟的高速發(fā)展，土地資源的數(shù)量和質(zhì)量均呈下降趨勢，與此同時土地資源的有限性也使其越來越不能滿足社會經(jīng)濟增長對土地的需求。因此，土地整理項目工作被國家作為一種戰(zhàn)略層面的部署受到越來越多的運用。在具體的土地整理項目實施及評價過程中，既有的研究成果已經(jīng)能夠?qū)ν恋卣眄椖康目冃Ш徒Y(jié)果進行評價，但在評價的內(nèi)容上還不夠全面，在評價的方法上還不夠科學。因此，如何對土地整理項目進行更為系統(tǒng)和科學的評價具有一定意義。 本文以土地整理項目的績效評價為核心對土地整理項目全過程進行研究，首先，根據(jù)土地整理理論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論原則，從過程和結(jié)果全系統(tǒng)、政府與群眾雙視角構(gòu)建了土地整理項目績效評價的因果關(guān)系圖模型，并以此作為整個模型構(gòu)建的基本。其次，結(jié)合所要研究的項目區(qū)特點，有針對性的選擇了過程、經(jīng)濟、社會和生態(tài)四方面內(nèi)容作為項目子系統(tǒng)，通過區(qū)分狀態(tài)變量、速率變量、輔助變量和常量，依據(jù)系統(tǒng)動力學模型建模原則和特點，構(gòu)建了各自的系統(tǒng)流程圖模型，并標明了存在的反饋循環(huán)回路。然后，利用歷史數(shù)據(jù)，擬合出成長曲線、邏輯斯蒂曲線等SPSS函數(shù)，并在VENSIM軟件中用DYNAMO語言轉(zhuǎn)化成系統(tǒng)動力學方程，并進行運行的校對和檢驗。最后，利用本文建立的土地整理項目系統(tǒng)動力學模型，結(jié)合所要研究的工程實例，進行項目績效的評價與預(yù)測，為分析決策和項目建議提供支持。本文工程實例績效評價的結(jié)果是滿意的，基本符合并達到了工程建設(shè)的要求和目的，并預(yù)測在未來幾年中會持續(xù)產(chǎn)生良好績效影響。同時文中績效研究是基于系統(tǒng)動力學模型分析的，與以往模型相比，一是系統(tǒng)動力學模型分析具有動態(tài)特征，能進行實時反饋調(diào)節(jié)，更加貼近現(xiàn)實系統(tǒng)；二是應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動力學模型進行評價不僅能展示過去，評價現(xiàn)在，，更能預(yù)測項目未來情況。
[Abstract]:Land resources are a kind of limited resources. With the rapid development of our country's social economy, the quantity and quality of land resources are decreasing. At the same time, the limited land resources also make it more and more unable to meet the social and economic growth demand for land. Therefore, land consolidation project is used more and more as a kind of strategic deployment. In the process of implementation and evaluation of land consolidation projects, the existing research results have been able to evaluate the performance and results of land consolidation projects, but the contents of the evaluation are not comprehensive enough, and the evaluation methods are not scientific enough. Therefore, how to carry on more systematic and scientific evaluation of land consolidation project has certain significance. This paper studies the whole process of land consolidation project based on the performance evaluation of land consolidation project. Firstly, according to the principles of land consolidation theory and sustainable development theory, the whole system of process and result is introduced. The causality graph model of land consolidation project performance evaluation is constructed from the perspective of government and the masses, and it is the basic of the whole model construction. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the project area to be studied, the process, economic, social and ecological aspects are selected as the project subsystem, by distinguishing the state variable, the rate variable, the auxiliary variable and the constant. According to the modeling principles and characteristics of system dynamics model, the flow chart models of each system are constructed, and the existing feedback loop is indicated. Then, using historical data, SPSS functions such as growth curve and logistic curve are fitted out, and the system dynamic equations are transformed into system dynamic equations by DYNAMO language in VENSIM software, and the running proofreading and verification are carried out. Finally, the system dynamics model of land consolidation project is established in this paper, and the project performance evaluation and prediction are carried out in combination with the project example to provide support for the analysis and decision making and project proposal. The results of performance evaluation of engineering examples are satisfactory and meet the requirements and objectives of engineering construction. It is predicted that good performance impact will continue in the next few years. At the same time, the performance analysis is based on the system dynamics model analysis. Compared with the previous models, the system dynamics model analysis has dynamic characteristics, can be real-time feedback adjustment, more close to the real system; Second, the application of system dynamics model in evaluation can not only show the past, the evaluation of the present, but also predict the future of the project.
【學位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F301.2;N941.3

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