【摘要】：為了達到合理使用土地的目的,使有限的土地資源能夠進行優(yōu)化配置,繼而可以滿足人類不斷增長的需要,以及地區(qū)的社會持續(xù)發(fā)展,使其達到供需平衡的狀態(tài),因此對其近況的深入探討和評價是十分重要的。本文以沈陽市為研究對象,采用生態(tài)足跡的方法,定量分析沈陽市目前土地資源利用的發(fā)展狀態(tài),對沈陽市的生態(tài)足跡進行研究,并利用GM(1,1)模型預測之后6年時間內(nèi)沈陽市土地生態(tài)足跡的走勢,同時運用目前土地生態(tài)管理學的內(nèi)容和模型提出相應的建議。通過研究,得到如下結(jié)果:(1)在2014年,沈陽市的人均生態(tài)足跡數(shù)值達到1.54公頃。而該地區(qū)人均生態(tài)承載力為0.51公頃�？鄢�12%的生物多樣性保護,沈陽市生態(tài)赤字為1.09公頃,表明在2014年沈陽市土地發(fā)展情況不是很樂觀。(2)2005-2014年,沈陽市人均生態(tài)足跡整體呈上升趨勢,說明在這期間,沈陽市對生態(tài)生產(chǎn)性土地的需求有所增加。另外,通過計算,在2005-2014年之間沈陽市萬元GDP的生態(tài)足跡水平總體上有減小趨向,說明沈陽市在這十年的過程中萬元GDP的生態(tài)足跡的需求減小,這也說明其生態(tài)資源的利用效率在上升。(3)根據(jù)確定的預測函數(shù),可推斷出沈陽市的人均生態(tài)足跡將持續(xù)增加,在2020年將上升到2.26公頃。其生態(tài)足跡的不斷增加,意味著人們對物質(zhì)生產(chǎn)性用地的需求量也在隨著時間的變化不斷增加。由于人類活動的強度不斷提高,且不斷挑戰(zhàn)著其區(qū)域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的承受能力,會給該地區(qū)帶來更為嚴重的問題。造成這種情況的主要原因是人口過于密集、消費觀念的轉(zhuǎn)變、對土地資源的過度開發(fā)利用以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構不合理。對于沈陽市而言,所提出的建議要從四個方面進行考慮:調(diào)整人口分布,提高人口素質(zhì);轉(zhuǎn)換生產(chǎn)消費方法,增強持續(xù)的發(fā)展意識;保護土地資源,提高土地利用率;發(fā)揮東北老工業(yè)基地的優(yōu)勢,提高資源和能源的使用效率。
[Abstract]:In order to achieve the purpose of rational use of land, to optimize the allocation of limited land resources, and then to meet the growing needs of human beings, and to achieve a balance between supply and demand for sustainable social development in the region, Therefore, it is very important to discuss and evaluate the recent situation. This paper takes Shenyang as the research object, adopts the ecological footprint method, quantitatively analyzes the development state of the present land resources utilization in Shenyang, and studies the ecological footprint of Shenyang. The trend of land ecological footprint in Shenyang during the next 6 years was predicted by using GM (1 / 1) model, and the corresponding suggestions were put forward by using the content and model of land ecological management at present. The results are as follows: (1) in 2014, the ecological footprint per capita in Shenyang reached 1.54 ha. The per capita ecological carrying capacity of this area is 0.51 ha. After deducting 12 percent of biodiversity conservation, Shenyang's ecological deficit is 1.09 hectares, which indicates that the land development situation in Shenyang in 2014 is not very optimistic. (2) from 2005 to 2014, the overall per capita ecological footprint of Shenyang showed an upward trend, indicating that during this period, Shenyang's demand for ecologically productive land has increased. In addition, from 2005 to 2014, the ecological footprint level of 10 thousand yuan GDP in Shenyang decreased, which indicated that the demand of ecological footprint of 10 thousand yuan GDP in Shenyang decreased during this decade. This also indicates that the utilization efficiency of ecological resources is increasing. (3) according to the predicted function, it can be inferred that the ecological footprint per capita will continue to increase in Shenyang, and will rise to 2.26 hectares in 2020. The increasing ecological footprint means that the demand for material and productive land is increasing with time. Because of the increasing intensity of human activities and the challenge to the bearing capacity of its regional ecosystem, it will bring more serious problems to the region. The main causes of this situation are the overpopulation, the change of consumption concept, the over-exploitation and utilization of land resources and the unreasonable industrial structure. As far as Shenyang is concerned, the suggestions should be considered from four aspects: adjusting population distribution, improving population quality, changing production and consumption methods, strengthening sustainable development consciousness, protecting land resources and improving land utilization ratio. Give play to the advantage of northeast old industrial base, improve the use efficiency of resource and energy.
【學位授予單位】：沈陽師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2

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