本文選題：農戶行為 + 土地利用�。� 參考：《地理科學進展》2016年10期

【摘要】：運用模擬平臺模擬農戶土地利用行為,對揭示農戶土地利用變化機制和調整土地利用決策具有重要意義。本文選擇生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)一鄉(xiāng)一業(yè)、一村一品典型村陜西省米脂縣姜興莊為例,以信念—愿望—意圖模型(BDI)為基礎,構建有限理性能力與資源(CR-BDI)模型。基于NetLogo平臺對CR-BDI模型和傳統BDI模型的模擬情況進行對比分析,結果表明:1CR-BDI模型更適于微觀尺度農戶土地利用決策研究。2014年該模型面積失誤率為6.78%,比傳統BDI模型低8.48%,空間準確率比傳統BDI模型高10.10%,2015年CR-BDI模型和傳統BDI模型的整體空間正確率分別為78.8%和69.2%;2CR指數有利于體現農戶的有限理性,與實際種植決策較為符合;3利用NetLogo平臺有利于直觀再現農戶土地利用行為,揭示土地利用變化的微觀機理,可作為研究土地利用變化互動機理的良好平臺。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to simulate the land use behavior of farmers by using the simulation platform to reveal the mechanism of land use change of farmers and to adjust the decision-making of land use. In this paper, based on the model of belief, wish and intention (BDI), a limited rational ability and resources (CR-BDI) model is constructed by selecting one village, one village and one typical village in Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, as an example, based on the model of belief, wish and intention (BDI). Based on NetLogo platform, the simulation of CR-BDI model and traditional BDI model is compared and analyzed. In 2014, the error rate of this model is 6.78, which is 8.48 lower than that of traditional BDI model, and the spatial accuracy is 10.10 higher than that of traditional BDI model. The overall error rate of CR-BDI model and traditional BDI model in 2015 is higher than that of traditional BDI model. The spatial accuracy rates were 78.8% and 69.2%, respectively. In accordance with the actual planting decision, the use of NetLogo platform is beneficial to the direct reproduction of farmers' land use behavior and reveals the microcosmic mechanism of land use change. It can be used as a good platform for studying the interactive mechanism of land use change.
【作者單位】： 西北大學城市與環(huán)境學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(41271103)~~
【分類號】：F326.1
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本文編號：2088119