本文選題：land + use��； 參考：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2016年03期

【摘要】：Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following:(1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989 2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989 2000 to 3.96% during 2000 2010.(2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989 2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland.(3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dra-matically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted.(4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed.(5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.
[Abstract]:Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following:(1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989 2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989 2000 to 3.96% during 2000 2010.(2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989 2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland.(3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dra-matically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted.(4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed.(5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m脳300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.
【作者單位】： College
【基金】：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41171088,No.41571087
【分類號】：F301.2;P901

【共引文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李菊;于萍萍;;西藏山南浪卡子縣卡熱鄉(xiāng)耕地利用現狀調查[J];河北農業(yè)科學;2011年08期

2 劉英,趙榮欽;土地利用/覆蓋變化研究的現狀與趨勢[J];河北師范大學學報;2004年03期

3 張有智;吳黎;;三江平原濕地動態(tài)變化及驅動力分析[J];黑龍江農業(yè)科學;2010年12期

4 陸忠軍;;三江平原土地利用狀況的時空特征分析[J];黑龍江農業(yè)科學;2011年06期

5 白麗明;白利彥;孫銘陽;;大慶市土地利用動態(tài)變化分析與預測[J];黑龍江環(huán)境通報;2010年04期

6 俞文政;劉丹;祁英香;史軍;;共和縣耕地利用變化驅動力模型建立及驅動因子分析[J];Agricultural Science & Technology;2009年04期

7 赤旦多杰;淡樂蓉;;青海湖地區(qū)耕地利用變化驅動力模型與驅動因子分析(摘要)(英文)[J];Agricultural Science & Technology;2009年06期

8 童紹玉;魯永新;;云南省耕地垂直空間轉移規(guī)律及其驅動力分析(英文)[J];Agricultural Science & Technology;2011年01期

9 昌遠蘭;劉成武;;近60年來湖北省耕地資源變化特征分析(摘要)(英文)[J];Agricultural Science & Technology;2011年03期

10 肖寶玉;我國土地利用覆被變化驅動力研究進展[J];海南師范學院學報(自然科學版);2004年01期

【二級參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前2條

1 陳佑啟,楊鵬;國際上土地利用/土地覆蓋變化研究的新進展[J];經濟地理;2001年01期

2 黃慶旭;何春陽;史培軍;趙媛媛;楊洋;劉洪友;;城市擴展多尺度驅動機制分析——以北京為例[J];經濟地理;2009年05期

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 ;Effects of information feedback on an asymmetrical two-route scenario[J];Chinese Science Bulletin;2009年18期

2 TENG Fei;XU Shuang-Qing;;Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impacts on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts[J];Advances in Climate Change Research;2012年04期

3 Triloki Singh;Raghavendra Chaubey;;An interacting two-fluid scenario for dark energy in a Bianchi type-I cosmological model[J];Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics;2012年05期

4 ;An alternative evolution scenario for OAO 1657-415 and IGR J18483-0311[J];Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy);2010年S1期

5 ;Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model[J];Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences);2005年11期

6 王海云;謝禮立;陶夏新;李捷;;Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault[J];Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration;2006年01期

7 Jonathan Mitchley;Martin F.Price;Joseph Tzanopoulos;;Integrated Futures for Europe’s Mountain Regions: Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Human Livelihoods[J];Journal of Mountain Science;2006年04期

8 ;Statefinder Parameters for Coupled Quintessence Scenario in a Power Law Case[J];Communications in Theoretical Physics;2005年09期

9 丁哲;;Genetic approach for Cell-by-Cell dynamic spectrum allocation in the heterogeneous scenario[J];High Technology Letters;2010年04期

10 楊明川;;A novel 3-D spatial temporal channel model for high mobility HAPS-based communications scenario[J];High Technology Letters;2009年04期

相關會議論文 前3條

1 ;Scenario planning Approach to Disruption Identification for Public Transport System[A];第五屆（2010）中國管理學年會——管理科學與工程分會場論文集[C];2010年

2 ;Research on Knowledge Reuse Based on Knowledge Scenario[A];全國第十屆企業(yè)信息化與工業(yè)工程學術年會論文集[C];2006年

3 陳紹龍;;R-Parity Breaking via Type Ⅱ Seesaw,Gravitino Dark Matter and e~± Excess[A];Seminar on Cosmology and Dark Matter 2009[C];2009年

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 郭雅;車載網絡中基于拓撲、地理以及網絡編碼感知的自組網路由協議研究[D];華中科技大學;2012年

，

本文編號：1992645