本文選題：中國(guó)糧食安全 + 谷物生產(chǎn)　； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文試圖深入分析中國(guó)的糧食安全問(wèn)題。自1996年以來(lái),中國(guó)中央政府看重糧食安全問(wèn)題,并把許多資源及時(shí)間集中于設(shè)計(jì)最優(yōu)的解決方案。到目前為止,中國(guó)采取了幾個(gè)重要措施,例如保護(hù)耕地面積、控制城市面積的迅猛增長(zhǎng)、鼓勵(lì)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的研究與開(kāi)發(fā)、培訓(xùn)農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力等等。這些項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)取得了較好的效果,但是中國(guó)社會(huì)的發(fā)展,即城市化、收入增加導(dǎo)致的飲食結(jié)構(gòu)的改變、人口的增加等因素繼續(xù)阻礙著糧食安全問(wèn)題的解決。這項(xiàng)研究通過(guò)谷物的需求與供給兩方面分析來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)未來(lái)糧食安全前景。首先,根據(jù)歷史潮流,筆者預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)對(duì)谷物的未來(lái)凈需求——包括直接需求又包括間接需求。筆者接著分析中國(guó)谷物供給與生產(chǎn)情況。為了分析糧食安全,筆者采用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)回歸模型以了解影響谷物生產(chǎn)的因素。本文主要的結(jié)論有兩個(gè)：第一,中國(guó)在小型農(nóng)用設(shè)備的過(guò)度投資,導(dǎo)致它們對(duì)谷物生產(chǎn)有負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；第二,中國(guó)可以通過(guò)投資于大中型農(nóng)用設(shè)備提高谷物生產(chǎn)量。同時(shí),中國(guó)可以通過(guò)保護(hù)栽種面積與化肥的有效使用進(jìn)一步保障糧食安全。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to analyze China's food security in depth.Since 1996, China's central government has focused on food security and focused much of its resources and time on designing optimal solutions.So far, China has taken several important measures, such as protecting cultivated land area, controlling the rapid growth of urban area, encouraging research and development of agricultural technology, training agricultural labor force, and so on.These projects have achieved good results, but the development of Chinese society, that is, urbanization, income increase resulting in changes in dietary structure, population growth and other factors continue to hinder the solution of food security.The study predicts China's future food security prospects through grain demand and supply analysis.First, according to the historical trend, the author predicts the future net demand for grain in China, including direct demand and indirect demand.The author then analyzes the situation of grain supply and production in China.In order to analyze grain security, the author adopts econometric regression model to understand the factors affecting grain production.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the overinvestment of small-scale agricultural equipment in China leads to a negative correlation between them and grain production; second, China can increase grain production by investing in large and medium-sized agricultural equipment.At the same time, China can further ensure food security by protecting the planting area and the effective use of fertilizer.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.1

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本文編號(hào)：1738507