本文關(guān)鍵詞： 養(yǎng)老保險 農(nóng)民工 消費水平 實證分析　出處：《華東理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：眾所周知,養(yǎng)老保險對居民消費水平有著重要的影響,同時這也是國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)注的重點,養(yǎng)老保險一方面能夠保障居民未來退休后基本生活,減少未來不確定性風(fēng)險,改善未來收入預(yù)期,降低預(yù)防性儲蓄動機,進而有著擠出儲蓄,促進消費的作用,另一方面繳費型的養(yǎng)老保險減少了居民的當(dāng)期收入,當(dāng)期收入的減少勢必會對當(dāng)期消費產(chǎn)生一定的抑制作用。以往研究大都關(guān)注養(yǎng)老保險對城鎮(zhèn)居民或者農(nóng)村居民消費的影響,然而伴隨著我國城鎮(zhèn)化進程的不斷發(fā)展,逐漸涌現(xiàn)出農(nóng)民工這一特殊群體,農(nóng)民工群體不同于城鎮(zhèn)居民或者農(nóng)民居民,具有其自身的特殊性,農(nóng)民工從農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移到城市工作生活不僅是簡單的空間地理位置的轉(zhuǎn)移,還包括了消費方式的轉(zhuǎn)變,而農(nóng)民工在城市的消費水平是其自身融入城市的重要測量維度,其潛在的巨大的消費需求也是拉動城市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要動力,因而研究城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險對農(nóng)民工群體的消費影響對于促進農(nóng)民工的城市融合,推動城市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展以及城鎮(zhèn)化進程具有重要的意義。本文在回顧相關(guān)消費理論以及國內(nèi)外研究文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,使用2014年全國流動人口動態(tài)監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù),首先對農(nóng)民工個體特性及基本消費情況進行了描述性統(tǒng)計,然后采用赫克曼樣本選擇模型,在控制了樣本自選擇偏誤后,運用多元線性回歸的方法實證分析了城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險對農(nóng)民工家庭消費開支以及消費結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。結(jié)果表明,農(nóng)民工城市消費水平仍然較低,城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險對農(nóng)民工家庭消費支出具有顯著的促進作用,但是對其消費結(jié)構(gòu)并沒有起到改善作用,城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險對農(nóng)民工消費需求的釋放主要在食品消費支出方面,隨著食品消費支出的增加,其消費恩格爾系數(shù)也在增加；城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險對不同收入分組的影響不同,城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險能夠顯著促進中低等收入農(nóng)民工群體的消費支出,但是對于高等收入群體消費支出的影響不顯著,城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險對于新生代農(nóng)民工群體消費支出的促進作用大于老一代農(nóng)民工群體；城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險對于未來傾向于在城市發(fā)展的農(nóng)民工消費支出的影響更明顯。文章進一步從城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險能夠預(yù)防未來不確定性風(fēng)險,改善農(nóng)民工未來收入預(yù)期角度,城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險成為農(nóng)民工城市購房、子女教育等消費門檻的角度以及城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險能夠加強農(nóng)民工城市身份認(rèn)同進而促進城市消費的角度分析了城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險促進農(nóng)民工城市消費的作用機理,最后在研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出要進一步擴大養(yǎng)老保險制度的覆蓋面,降低其養(yǎng)老保險待遇領(lǐng)取門檻,使城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險制度真正發(fā)揮其對農(nóng)民工城市生活保障作用,降低未來不確定性風(fēng)險的相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:As we all know, endowment insurance has an important impact on the consumption level of residents, and it is also the focus of domestic and foreign scholars. On the one hand, pension insurance can protect the basic life of residents after retirement. Reduce the future uncertainty risk, improve the future income expectation, reduce the precautionary savings motivation, and then have the role of squeezing out savings and promoting consumption. On the other hand, the contributory pension insurance reduces the current income of residents. The reduction of current income is bound to have a certain inhibitory effect on current consumption. Previous studies have focused on the impact of old-age insurance on the consumption of urban residents or rural residents. However, with the continuous development of urbanization in China, migrant workers gradually emerged this special group, migrant workers are different from urban residents or farmers, with its own particularity. The transfer of migrant workers from rural areas to urban work and life is not only the transfer of simple spatial geographical location, but also includes the change of consumption mode. The consumption level of migrant workers in the city is an important measurement dimension of their own integration into the city, its potential huge consumption demand is also an important driving force to stimulate the development of urban economy. Therefore, the study of urban old-age insurance on the rural migrant workers group consumption impact on the promotion of urban integration of migrant workers. It is of great significance to promote the development of urban economy and the process of urbanization. Based on the review of relevant consumption theory and domestic and foreign research literature, this paper uses the national mobile population dynamic monitoring data in 2014. First, the individual characteristics of migrant workers and the basic consumption of statistics were described, and then the Heckman sample selection model was used to control the sample self-selection error. Using the method of multiple linear regression, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of urban enterprise workers' pension insurance on peasant workers' household consumption expenditure and consumption structure. The results show that the level of rural migrant workers' urban consumption is still relatively low. Urban enterprise employee pension insurance has a significant role in promoting the household consumption expenditure of migrant workers, but it does not play a role in improving the consumption structure of migrant workers. Urban old-age insurance mainly releases the consumption demand of migrant workers in food consumption expenditure, with the increase of food consumption expenditure, its consumption Engel coefficient is also increasing; The effects of urban old-age insurance on different income groups are different. Urban old-age insurance can significantly promote the consumption expenditure of middle and low income migrant workers, but the impact on higher income groups is not significant. The role of urban old-age insurance in promoting the consumption expenditure of the new generation of migrant workers is greater than that of the old generation of migrant workers. The impact of urban old-age insurance on the future development of rural migrant workers in the future consumer expenditure is more obvious. The article further from the urban pension insurance can prevent future uncertainty risks. Improve the perspective of future income of migrant workers, urban old-age insurance become migrant workers urban housing. The angle of consumption threshold such as children's education and the view that urban old-age insurance can strengthen the urban identity of migrant workers and thus promote urban consumption analyzes the mechanism of urban old-age insurance to promote the urban consumption of migrant workers. Finally, on the basis of the conclusion of the study, it is proposed to further expand the coverage of the old-age insurance system, and to lower the threshold of receiving pension benefits. So that the urban old-age insurance system can really play its role in ensuring the urban life of migrant workers and reduce the uncertainty risk in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67;F323.89

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本文編號：1456965