【摘要】：入境旅游是我國(guó)的三大旅游市場(chǎng)(入境游、出境游、境內(nèi)游)之一,近年來(lái)隨著入境旅游業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展,其對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用凸顯。目前,國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)我國(guó)入境旅游影響因素的數(shù)據(jù)選取上主要以某一省、市的入境旅游數(shù)據(jù)或中國(guó)入境旅游總體數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),采用抽樣調(diào)查方法、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法、雙對(duì)數(shù)模型估計(jì)等研究方法對(duì)我國(guó)入境旅游需求影響因素進(jìn)行分析；國(guó)外學(xué)者一般以收入、人口、匯率為主要變量,通過(guò)建立經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)學(xué)模型(如ARIMA模型、LLC模型等)分析入境旅游需求的影響因素。本文主要以2010年中國(guó)入境旅游接待量超過(guò)100萬(wàn)人次的部分省、直轄市、自治區(qū)為研究對(duì)象,綜合各省、市的研究結(jié)果,分析我國(guó)入境旅游的影響因素。首先,分析中國(guó)旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展條件,進(jìn)而從國(guó)際旅游需求趨勢(shì)、季節(jié)影響、旅游價(jià)格趨勢(shì)三方面對(duì)中國(guó)入境旅游進(jìn)行分析。其次,將所研究省、市的入境游客數(shù)量作為被解釋變量,匯率、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、相對(duì)價(jià)格作為解釋變量,構(gòu)建各省、市的入境旅游需求模型。最后,分類別對(duì)各省、市入境旅游需求模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。 本文分別對(duì)相同客源國(guó)省、市和不同客源國(guó)省、市的入境旅游模型進(jìn)行面板協(xié)整分析和模型估計(jì),得到如下結(jié)論：綜合相同客源國(guó)省、市和不同客源國(guó)省、市的面板協(xié)整和模型估計(jì)結(jié)果,各省、市與其各自客源國(guó)的相對(duì)價(jià)格(PR2)、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、匯率是影響我國(guó)入境旅游需求的三大主要因素。其中,各省份入境旅游需求也受到其某一客源因入境旅游人數(shù)的影響。1997年的亞洲金融危機(jī)、2001年的美國(guó)9.11恐怖襲擊事件和2003年的非典性肺炎在不同程度、不同范圍影響我國(guó)的入境旅游需求。
[Abstract]:Inbound tourism is one of the three major tourist markets in China (inbound, outbound and domestic). In recent years, with the vigorous development of inbound tourism, it has played an important role in promoting the economic development of our country. At present, on the basis of the inbound tourism data of a certain province or city or the general data of China's inbound tourism, the domestic scholars mainly choose the data of the factors affecting the inbound tourism in China, and adopt the sampling survey method and the grey relational analysis method. Double logarithmic model estimation and other research methods are used to analyze the influencing factors of inbound tourism demand in China. Foreign scholars generally take income, population and exchange rate as the main variables. The economic mathematical model (such as Arima model and LLC model) is established to analyze the influence factors of inbound tourism demand. In this paper, some provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions which received more than 1 million inbound tourists in China in 2010 are taken as the research objects. Based on the research results of provinces and cities, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of inbound tourism in China. Firstly, it analyzes the developing conditions of China's tourism industry, and then analyzes China's inbound tourism from three aspects: the trend of international tourism demand, the seasonal influence, and the trend of tourism price. Secondly, the number of inbound tourists in the provinces and cities studied is taken as the explanatory variable, the exchange rate, GDP and relative price are taken as the explanatory variables, and the model of inbound tourism demand of the provinces and cities is constructed. Finally, the model of inbound tourism demand of provinces and cities is tested by classification. In this paper, the panel cointegration analysis and model estimation of the inbound tourism models of the same tourist country, city and different tourist source country and city are carried out, and the following conclusions are obtained: synthesizing the same tourist source country province, city and different tourist source country province, According to the results of the panel cointegration model, the relative price (PR2), GDP and exchange rate of each province, city and their respective guest countries are the three main factors that affect the demand for inbound tourism in China. Among them, the demand for inbound tourism in various provinces is also affected by the number of inbound tourists from a certain source of tourists. The Asian financial crisis in 1997, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States and SARS in 2003 were in varying degrees. The different scope affects the inbound tourism demand of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F592;F224

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