本文選題：外國(guó)入境旅游 + 旅游價(jià)格�。� 參考：《蘭州商學(xué)院》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：旅游業(yè)作為一種朝陽(yáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)，具有關(guān)聯(lián)度高、綜合性強(qiáng)等特點(diǎn)，對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)起到拉動(dòng)作用，尤其是入境旅游可以為國(guó)家?guī)?lái)較多的外匯收入，所有國(guó)家無(wú)一例外的支持發(fā)展入境旅游業(yè)。入境旅游是旅游業(yè)的重要組成部分，在外匯收入、經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)和形象宣傳等方面發(fā)揮著重要作用。80年代以來(lái)，中國(guó)入境旅游業(yè)得到了充分的發(fā)展，呈現(xiàn)出一種興旺的局面，使中國(guó)躋身于世界旅游大國(guó)行列。 本文從實(shí)踐角度入手，，通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外入境旅游需求研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行分析歸類綜述，并對(duì)中國(guó)入境旅游發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析。借鑒消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中消費(fèi)理論構(gòu)建了入境旅游需求的初步模型。并以2001-2009年中國(guó)入境旅游主要的20個(gè)客源國(guó)的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析。根據(jù)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析找出了影響外國(guó)入境旅游需求的關(guān)鍵因素，并提出了發(fā)展入境旅游的相應(yīng)對(duì)策與建議。全文主要分為五章： 第一章是緒論。主要內(nèi)容為本文研究的背景和意義，對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述簡(jiǎn)要介紹了文章的結(jié)構(gòu)框架。 第二章是入境旅游現(xiàn)狀分析。通過(guò)分析收集各項(xiàng)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)歸納整理中國(guó)入境旅游發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀�？疾彀ㄈ刖陈糜稳藬�(shù)的增長(zhǎng)情況，外匯收入以及構(gòu)成情況，入境游客結(jié)構(gòu)特征分析，并結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)旅游、入境旅游、外國(guó)入境旅游人數(shù)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。其中入境游客結(jié)構(gòu)特征的考察包括性別構(gòu)成、年齡構(gòu)成、以及原由目的構(gòu)成。通過(guò)對(duì)入境旅游現(xiàn)狀分析，找出了入境旅游在中國(guó)旅游中的特點(diǎn)。無(wú)論從人數(shù)還是消費(fèi)規(guī)模而言都遠(yuǎn)不及國(guó)內(nèi)旅游，同時(shí)旅游人數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)率來(lái)看，入境旅游人數(shù)受特殊事件波動(dòng)較大。 第三章為外國(guó)入境旅游需求建模。通過(guò)主要消費(fèi)理論的回顧，借鑒其經(jīng)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行入境旅游需求建模。考察的主要消費(fèi)理論有：凱恩斯的消費(fèi)理論、杜森貝利的消費(fèi)理論、弗里德曼的消費(fèi)理論、莫迪里安尼的消費(fèi)理論以及理性預(yù)期消費(fèi)函數(shù)。 第四章為實(shí)證分析部分，包括變量的選取以及數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)，根據(jù)需求建模歸納的影響旅游的因素，通過(guò)計(jì)量模型并進(jìn)行回歸分析。對(duì)于模型設(shè)定形式的確定、異方差以及共線性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。最后通過(guò)（PCSE估計(jì)）糾正異方差對(duì)面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行再次回歸。 第五章為結(jié)論與建議部分。借助回歸結(jié)果的分析，歸納出對(duì)于我國(guó)入境旅游旅游最重要的四個(gè)因數(shù)：國(guó)內(nèi)旅游人數(shù)、實(shí)際匯率、客源國(guó)的GNI以及中國(guó)的利率水平。
[Abstract]:As a sunrise industry, tourism has the characteristics of high correlation and strong comprehensiveness. It plays a driving role in the national economy. In particular, inbound tourism can bring more foreign exchange income to the country. All countries, without exception, support the development of inbound tourism. Inbound tourism is an important part of the tourism industry. It has played an important role in foreign exchange income, economic construction and image publicity since 1980s. Since the 1980s, China's inbound tourism industry has been fully developed, showing a prosperous situation. Put China in the ranks of the world's largest tourist countries. From the perspective of practice, this paper analyzes and classifies the domestic and foreign literature on the demand for inbound tourism, and analyzes the present situation of the development of inbound tourism in China. Based on the consumption theory in consumer economics, this paper constructs a preliminary model of inbound tourism demand. The econometric analysis is carried out on the panel data of 20 major countries of inbound tourism in China from 2001 to 2009. Based on the econometric analysis, this paper finds out the key factors affecting the demand for foreign inbound tourism, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of inbound tourism. The full text is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is the introduction. The main content is the background and significance of this paper. The second chapter is the present situation analysis of inbound tourism. Through the analysis of the collection of statistical data summarized and sorted out the status quo of inbound tourism development in China. The investigation includes the growth of inbound tourist population, foreign exchange income and composition, the structural characteristics of inbound tourists, and the comparison of the number of inbound tourists, domestic tourism, inbound tourism and foreign inbound tourism. The structural characteristics of inbound tourists include sex composition, age composition and original purpose. By analyzing the present situation of inbound tourism, this paper finds out the characteristics of inbound tourism in Chinese tourism. Both the number of people and the scale of consumption are far less than domestic tourism, and the growth rate of the number of tourists, the number of inbound tourism fluctuates greatly by special events. The third chapter models the foreign inbound tourism demand. Based on the review of the main consumption theory, the model of inbound tourism demand is built based on its experience. The main consumption theories are Keynesian consumption theory, Dusenbelle consumption theory, Friedman's consumption theory, Modigliani's consumption theory and rational expectation consumption function. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, including the selection of variables and the test of the stability of the data, according to the demand modeling induction of factors affecting tourism, through the econometric model and regression analysis. The heteroscedasticity and collinearity of the model are tested. Finally, the panel data are regressed by correcting heteroscedasticity through (PCSE estimation). The fifth chapter is the conclusion and recommendation part. Based on the analysis of the regression results, the four most important factors for inbound tourism in China are summed up: the number of domestic tourists, the real exchange rate, the GNI of the source country and the interest rate level of China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州商學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F592;F224

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