本文選題：國(guó)際旅游業(yè) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易��； 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著服務(wù)貿(mào)易在全球范圍內(nèi)的蓬勃發(fā)展，學(xué)者們逐漸關(guān)注對(duì)國(guó)際服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平的理論和實(shí)證研究。近年來，國(guó)際旅游業(yè)在國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展中表現(xiàn)得尤為突出，成為拉動(dòng)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要?jiǎng)恿�。本文以傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易相關(guān)理論為基礎(chǔ)，結(jié)合國(guó)際旅游業(yè)的自身特點(diǎn)，研究了影響中美國(guó)際旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平的主要因素。本文試圖以計(jì)量模型的實(shí)證結(jié)果為依據(jù)，為促進(jìn)中美國(guó)際旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展提出建議。 本文一開始主要是梳理、總結(jié)和評(píng)價(jià)現(xiàn)有的相關(guān)國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)，并在此基礎(chǔ)上明確本文的寫作有哪些創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足之處。隨后介紹一些相關(guān)的理論基礎(chǔ)，包括對(duì)國(guó)際旅游業(yè)和產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的概念界定，產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生動(dòng)因的整理，以及服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的介紹。然后先是分別介紹中國(guó)和美國(guó)國(guó)際旅游服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，再就中美雙邊國(guó)際旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展進(jìn)行分析和評(píng)價(jià)，從靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)的角度利用G-L指數(shù)和MIIT指數(shù)分析了中美國(guó)際旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的水平。之后就是文章的重點(diǎn)部分，主要是按照模型構(gòu)建、實(shí)證過程以及實(shí)證結(jié)果分析的順序進(jìn)行，在模型構(gòu)建的過程中，用G-L指數(shù)作為測(cè)算因變量產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平的指標(biāo)，分別引入人均收入差異（AGDP）、市場(chǎng)規(guī)模差異（ASIZE）、貨物貿(mào)易密集度（TCD）、服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放度（OP）、外商直接投資（FDI）、航空運(yùn)輸質(zhì)量差異（ATRAN）、貿(mào)易不平衡度（DMM）7個(gè)影響因素作為自變量。然后采用最小二乘估計(jì)法（O-L），運(yùn)用Eviews6.0計(jì)量軟件對(duì)這8個(gè)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行回歸。之后對(duì)回歸結(jié)果進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)、隨機(jī)干擾性的序列相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)以及單位根檢驗(yàn)，并嘗試進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)。雖然由于受到小樣本變量的限制，無法對(duì)其進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期均衡的檢驗(yàn)，但是其回歸結(jié)果還是有一定的意義。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，人均收入差異（AGDP）、服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放程度(OP)以及貿(mào)易不平衡度（DMM）與中美國(guó)際旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，市場(chǎng)規(guī)模差異（ASIZE）和外商直接投資（FDI）與中美國(guó)際旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。文章最后對(duì)前面的理論和實(shí)證研究進(jìn)行總結(jié)，主要得出以下結(jié)論：中國(guó)和美國(guó)都是國(guó)際旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易的大國(guó)；中美雙邊旅游服務(wù)貿(mào)易總額大，，但是發(fā)展不平衡，中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期處于貿(mào)易逆差狀態(tài)，且貿(mào)易差額在近幾年不斷加大；中美國(guó)際旅游服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展波動(dòng)較大；中美國(guó)際旅游服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易發(fā)展前景較好。最后為促進(jìn)中美國(guó)際旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展提出了四點(diǎn)建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of service trade in the world, scholars pay more and more attention to the theoretical and empirical research on the level of intra-industry trade in international service industry. In recent years, international tourism has become the main driving force for the development of the tertiary industry, especially in the development of international service trade. Based on the traditional theory of intra-industry trade and the characteristics of international tourism, this paper studies the main factors that affect the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States. Based on the empirical results of the econometric model, this paper attempts to give some suggestions for promoting the development of international tourism service trade between China and the United States. The first part of this paper is to sort out, summarize and evaluate the existing domestic and foreign literature, and on the basis of this, it is clear what innovative points and shortcomings of this writing. Then it introduces some related theoretical bases, including the definition of the concepts of international tourism and intra-industry trade, the collation of the causes of intra-industry trade, and the introduction of intra-industry trade effects in services. Then, first of all, it introduces the current situation of the development of international tourism services in China and the United States, and then analyzes and evaluates the development of international tourism between China and the United States. Using G-L index and MIIT index, this paper analyzes the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States from the static and dynamic point of view. Then it is the key part of the article, mainly according to the order of model construction, empirical process and empirical results analysis. In the process of model construction, the G-L index is used as the index to measure the level of intra-industry trade in dependent variables. As independent variables, seven influencing factors, such as per capita income difference, market size difference, trade intensity of goods, service trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), air transport quality difference and trade imbalance (DMMM), are introduced respectively. Then the eight time series data are regressed by using the least square estimation method and the Eviews6.0 software. Then the regression results are tested by statistical test, random interference sequence correlation test and unit root test, and cointegration test is attempted. Because of the limitation of small sample variables, it is impossible to test their long term equilibrium, but the regression results still have some significance. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between the difference of per capita income and the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States, the degree of openness of service trade and the degree of trade imbalance (DMMM). The difference of market size between ASIZE and FDI (FDI) is positively correlated with the level of intra-industry trade between China and the United States. In the end, the paper summarizes the previous theoretical and empirical studies, and draws the following conclusions: China and the United States are both big countries in international trade in tourism services, and the total amount of bilateral trade in tourism services between China and the United States is large, but the development of bilateral trade in tourism services is not balanced. China is in the state of trade deficit for a long time, and the trade balance has been increasing in recent years; the development of intra-industry trade between China and the United States has fluctuated greatly; the prospect of intra-industry trade of Sino-American international tourism service industry is better. Finally, four suggestions are put forward to promote the development of international tourism trade between China and the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.68;F592;F597.12

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