本文關(guān)鍵詞：CPI與我國(guó)旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性相互關(guān)系研究　出處：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： CPI 旅游上市公司 成長(zhǎng)性 相互關(guān)系

【摘要】：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變動(dòng)的因素有很多,與人們最相關(guān)的就是物價(jià),因?yàn)榻陙?lái)通貨膨脹對(duì)人們的影響越來(lái)越大。而反映通貨膨脹的指標(biāo)就是居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù),即CPI。居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)作為一個(gè)重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),反映了整個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況,與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行有著密不可分的關(guān)系。如今,人們?cè)絹?lái)越感覺(jué)到通貨膨脹對(duì)生活的影響,因此,研究居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)與旅游企業(yè)的關(guān)系就更具有其實(shí)際意義。本研究以我國(guó)旅游上市公司為研究對(duì)象,在借鑒前人經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論和成長(zhǎng)性理論的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)構(gòu)建模型,分析物價(jià)指數(shù)與旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性的相互關(guān)系。 本選題的研究目的：(1)本研究試圖探討居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)的變化與旅游上市公司的成長(zhǎng)性是否具有關(guān)系,有關(guān)系的話,是正向還是負(fù)向,是否顯著。(2)分析旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性的變化是否對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)有影響,有何影響。(3)對(duì)所選的旅游上市公司進(jìn)行分類,即酒店類、景區(qū)類和綜合類旅游上市公司,分析居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)對(duì)不同種類的旅游上市公司影響情況如何。(4)通過(guò)對(duì)CPI與旅游行業(yè)上市公司成長(zhǎng)性相互關(guān)系的研究,較為清晰的了解到CPI怎么影響行業(yè)內(nèi)旅游上市公司的成長(zhǎng)概況,投資者可以通過(guò)分析宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境狀況,對(duì)投資對(duì)象和投資策略進(jìn)行選擇,這便為投資者的投資選擇提供了一定的參考依據(jù)。 本選題的研究過(guò)程：(1)從國(guó)內(nèi)外兩個(gè)層面對(duì)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、旅游上市公司、成長(zhǎng)性的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理分析。(2)對(duì)2002-2010年居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì),通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外CPI、成長(zhǎng)性理論以及我國(guó)旅游上市公司相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的整理,在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,借助SPSS數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)工具,對(duì)所選取的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行歸類,然后采用合適的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)構(gòu)建上市公司成長(zhǎng)性的評(píng)價(jià)體系。(3)在構(gòu)建旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性評(píng)價(jià)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,引入控制變量公司規(guī)模,期間費(fèi)用率,企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并提出假設(shè)；通過(guò)回歸分析研究?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)、旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性、公司規(guī)模、期間費(fèi)用率、企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)性。(4)為了更進(jìn)一步證實(shí)CPI與旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性之間的關(guān)系,對(duì)二者進(jìn)行了格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。 本選題研究結(jié)論：(1)本研究通通過(guò)構(gòu)建評(píng)價(jià)體系,得出旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性得分,從得分情況可以看出,酒店類旅游行業(yè)上市公司的成長(zhǎng)性最好,景區(qū)類旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性次之,綜合類旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性較差。(2)模型以公司成長(zhǎng)性作為被解釋變量,CPI為解釋變量,回歸模型結(jié)果顯示,我國(guó)物價(jià)指數(shù),即CPI的變化對(duì)旅游上市公司的成長(zhǎng)性有顯著的負(fù)向影響。(3)以旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性作為解釋變量,CPI為被解釋變量,對(duì)CPI與旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性進(jìn)行線性回歸分析。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),二者之間并沒(méi)有顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系。(4)在更進(jìn)一步研究二者之間的關(guān)系時(shí),筆者對(duì)二者進(jìn)行了格蘭杰結(jié)果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)CPI與旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性只存在單向的因果關(guān)系,即CPI是引起旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性的格蘭杰原因,而旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性不是引起CPI的格蘭杰原因。 本研究的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)：(1)在研究?jī)?nèi)容選擇方面：將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)引入了旅游上市公司的研究。雖然國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)企業(yè)成長(zhǎng)性研究關(guān)注度較高,但對(duì)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)與旅游上市公司成長(zhǎng)性之間的關(guān)系研究略顯不足。(2)在成長(zhǎng)性體系構(gòu)建方面：豐富了成長(zhǎng)性評(píng)價(jià)體系。本研究構(gòu)建了旅游行業(yè)上市公司成長(zhǎng)性評(píng)價(jià)模型,并利用這一模型對(duì)旅游行業(yè)上市公司的成長(zhǎng)性進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)。這在一定程度上豐富了企業(yè)成長(zhǎng)性評(píng)價(jià)理論。
[Abstract]:There are many factors of macroeconomic changes, and the most relevant people is the price, because in recent years the inflation influence on people more and more. And the indicator of inflation is the consumer price index, the CPI. consumer price index as an important macroeconomic index, reflects the macroeconomic situation, there are a close relationship with the macroeconomic operation. Now, more and more people feel the impact of inflation on life, therefore, study on the relationship between consumer price index and tourism enterprises have more practical significance. In this study, China's tourism listed companies as the research object, based on the previous theory of economics and the theory of growth through constructing the model, analyze the relation between the price index and tourism growth of listed companies.
The purpose of this research: (1) this study attempts to explore the changes of consumer price index and the growth of the tourism listed company is, anything, is positive or negative, is significant. (2) analysis of changes in the growth of tourism listed companies have influence on macroeconomic indicators of consumption what is the impact of price index. (3) the classification of tourism listed companies selected, namely Hotel, scenic spot and comprehensive travel company, analysis of consumer price index of tourism listed companies of different types of influence situation. (4) of the CPI and the tourism listed companies growth relationship the study, more clear understanding of how to influence the growth of CPI in the tourism industry of listed companies, investors can through the analysis of the macroeconomic environment, the selection of investment and investment strategy, it is The investor's choice of investment provides a certain reference basis.
The process of the research: (1) from home and abroad from two aspects of the consumer price index, tourism listed companies, the growth of literature analysis. (2) descriptive statistics on the 2002-2010 consumer price index, through to the domestic and foreign CPI, growth theory and related literature of Chinese tourism listed companies the arrangement, on the basis of previous studies, using SPSS statistical tools, the financial indexes selected are classified, and then construct a growth evaluation system of listed companies using the appropriate financial indicators. (3) based on the growth evaluation system of the construction of tourism listed companies, the introduction of control variables in company size, period costs rate of business risk, and put forward the hypothesis; through regression analysis of the price index, the growth of tourism listed companies, the company scale, the expense ratio, correlation between business risk business. (4) for The relationship between CPI and the growth of the listed tourist companies is further confirmed, and the Grainger causality test is carried out for the two parties.
The conclusion of this research: (1) this study through the construction of evaluation system, the score of growth of tourism listed companies, from the score can be seen, the growth of the hotel industry listed companies the best scenic spot of the tourist growth of the listed company of comprehensive tourism poor growth of listed companies (2). The model of growth as explanatory variables in the company, CPI as the explanatory variable, the regression model showed that the price index in China, namely, the change of CPI on the growth of tourism listed companies has a significant negative effect. (3) the tourism listed company growth as explanatory variables, CPI as explanatory variables, the the growth of CPI and tourism listed companies by the linear regression analysis. The results showed that no significant correlation between the two. (4) in the further study of the relationship between the two, the author has carried on the examination of the relationship between the two results of Grainger, It is found that CPI has only one causal relationship with the growth of tourism listed companies, that is, CPI is the Grainger reason that causes the growth of tourism listed companies, and the growth of tourism listed companies is not the cause of CPI's Grainger.
The innovation of this study: (1) in the aspect of the selection of research content: macroeconomic indicators into the research of tourism listed companies. Although domestic and foreign scholars study on the growth of enterprises to a higher degree of concern, but the relationship of a consumer price index and tourism growth of listed companies between the (2) construction. In the aspect of growth system: rich growth evaluation system. This study constructs tourism industry growth evaluation model of listed companies, and the growth of tourism listed companies were evaluated by using this model. It enriches the enterprise growth evaluation theory to a certain extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F592.6

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本文編號(hào)：1440465