本文選題：大型工程項目 + 財務(wù)風(fēng)險��； 參考：《長沙理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為拉動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的三駕馬車之一，投資拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)最為顯著。為了遏制金融危機(jī)的肆虐，我國分別于2008年、2012年啟動投資的計劃大部分投向基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、水利交通事業(yè)等民生行業(yè)，其中不乏為數(shù)眾多的大型工程建設(shè)項目。大型工程項目的財務(wù)風(fēng)險隨著項目規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大而急劇增加，工程項目各個相關(guān)利益者之間財務(wù)風(fēng)險的傳導(dǎo)也使得總體風(fēng)險進(jìn)一步加劇。存在巨大的籌資風(fēng)險，極大的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險和市場風(fēng)險，一旦風(fēng)險爆發(fā)，最后都將引發(fā)巨大財務(wù)后果。對項目風(fēng)險管理、風(fēng)險監(jiān)控提出了新的挑戰(zhàn)。大型工程項目特點(diǎn)有：投資規(guī)模大，建設(shè)周期長，經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險大；技術(shù)復(fù)雜，有巨大的技術(shù)風(fēng)險性；具有綜合戰(zhàn)略地位和特殊的資源要求，建設(shè)難度大；在社會發(fā)展和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有重要的戰(zhàn)略地位；永久性工程，一旦開始，具有不可逆轉(zhuǎn)性；效益突變性大。實(shí)施過程中財務(wù)風(fēng)險的監(jiān)控是大型工程項目風(fēng)險管理的重中之重。如何預(yù)警與防范監(jiān)控大型工程項目的財務(wù)風(fēng)險，系統(tǒng)的探究財務(wù)風(fēng)險形成過程與傳導(dǎo)機(jī)理，成為亟待研究的課題。 本文以風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)理論、財務(wù)監(jiān)控理論、工程項目管理理論、系統(tǒng)理論為指導(dǎo)，首先，界定了大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)的涵義，分析了大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)隨機(jī)性、突發(fā)性、依存性、聯(lián)動性和非可逆性的特征；其次，分析了大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)的構(gòu)成要素：風(fēng)險源、風(fēng)險流、風(fēng)險載體、風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)路徑、風(fēng)險閾值、風(fēng)險事件與風(fēng)險子系統(tǒng)；再次，揭示了大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)機(jī)理及風(fēng)險表征；第四，探究了大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)的動態(tài)過程和傳導(dǎo)規(guī)律；第五，從大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)的構(gòu)成要素入手，從監(jiān)控大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險源、提高風(fēng)險閾值以抑制延緩風(fēng)險迸發(fā)釋放、監(jiān)控引導(dǎo)財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)路徑、密切監(jiān)控財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)過程等方面提出大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)的有效監(jiān)控措施；最后，構(gòu)建了大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)評價指標(biāo)體系，以32家主營業(yè)務(wù)為建筑工程的上市公司2008-2011年的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，運(yùn)用回歸分析等方法對大型工程項目財務(wù)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)進(jìn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)分析并提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:As one of the troika that stimulates China's economic growth, the effect of investment-driven economic growth is most remarkable. In order to contain the raging financial crisis, most of the investment projects started in 2008 and 2012 were invested in infrastructure construction, water conservancy and transportation, and other people's livelihood industries, among which there are a large number of large-scale construction projects. The financial risk of large engineering project increases rapidly with the expansion of project scale, and the transmission of financial risk among the relevant stakeholders of the project makes the overall risk more serious. There are huge financing risks, great economic risks and market risks. Once the risks erupt, they will eventually lead to huge financial consequences. New challenges to project risk management and risk monitoring are presented. The characteristics of large-scale engineering projects are: large scale of investment, long construction period, large economic risk, complex technology, huge technical risk, comprehensive strategic position and special resource requirements, and great difficulty in construction. It plays an important strategic role in social development and national economy. The monitoring of financial risk is the most important part of risk management in large engineering projects. How to forewarn and prevent the financial risks of large engineering projects and systematically explore the formation process and transmission mechanism of financial risks has become an urgent task to be studied. Under the guidance of risk transmission theory, financial monitoring theory, engineering project management theory and system theory, this paper firstly defines the meaning of financial risk transmission of large engineering project, and analyzes the randomness of financial risk transmission of large engineering project. Secondly, it analyzes the components of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects: risk source, risk flow, risk carrier, risk transmission path, risk threshold. Risk event and risk subsystem; thirdly, it reveals the financial risk transmission mechanism and risk characterization of large engineering projects; fourth, explores the dynamic process and transmission law of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects; fifth, Starting with the constituent elements of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects, the financial risk sources of large engineering projects are monitored, the risk threshold is raised to restrain the release of risks, and the path of financial risk transmission is guided by monitoring and guiding. The effective monitoring measures for financial risk transmission of large engineering projects are put forward in the aspects of close monitoring of financial risk transmission process, and finally, the evaluation index system of financial risk transmission for large engineering projects is constructed. Based on the financial data of 32 listed companies whose main business is construction engineering during 2008-2011, the empirical evidence of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects is analyzed by means of regression analysis and some policy suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F285

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