本文選題：成本估算　切入點：民用飛機　出處：《南京航空航天大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：民用飛機研制是一項復雜的系統(tǒng)工程，具有研制周期長、復雜程度高、技術(shù)難度大、不確定因素多等特點，決定了民用飛機研制過程需要大量的資金投入。然而，民用飛機研制的成功，不僅僅體現(xiàn)為技術(shù)的成就，更需要商業(yè)和運營的成功，因此，有效地控制研制成本成為其中至關(guān)重要的一環(huán)。 本文以民用飛機研制成本估算為主要內(nèi)容開展研究，，構(gòu)建民用飛機成本因素指標體系，并重點構(gòu)建研制階段和小批量生產(chǎn)階段的民用飛機成本估算模型。首先，在系統(tǒng)總結(jié)國內(nèi)外最新成本估算方法的基礎(chǔ)上，深入剖析了民用飛機研制過程并建立了民用飛機成本關(guān)鍵特征指標體系，采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析和自相關(guān)性方法選擇特征參量。其次，結(jié)合調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)、空缺數(shù)據(jù)插值、DAPCA IV成本估算模型和偏最小二乘法生成民用飛機研制階段和小批生產(chǎn)階段的成本數(shù)據(jù)；基于GM(0,N)模型和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡構(gòu)建了民用飛機機體研制成本估算模型；基于偏最小二乘方法構(gòu)建機體研制成本估算模型，考慮其他特征參量不變的情況下，構(gòu)建了民用飛機機體研制各影響因素與研制成本的函數(shù)關(guān)系，運用所求得的函數(shù)關(guān)系分析了各影響因素的敏感性。第三，重點針對飛機發(fā)動機系統(tǒng)采購成本進行研究，構(gòu)建基于遺傳算法的發(fā)動機研制成本綜合估算模型；通過增加多個說明性變量，改進Rand公司的DAPCA IV成本估算模型，通過反復計算、驗算和相關(guān)性分析，得到了民用飛機發(fā)動機生產(chǎn)成本、機體工時成本、材料成本等關(guān)鍵指標的修正DAPCAIV成本估算模型。并基于實際數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析，驗證了所構(gòu)建模型的精度與有效性。最后，運用Matlab中的GUI界面設計初步開發(fā)了民用飛機成本估算系統(tǒng)，該系統(tǒng)可以初步實現(xiàn)成本數(shù)據(jù)生成、民機飛機研制成本估算、小批生產(chǎn)成本估算等模塊功能。研究成果對我國民用飛機研制成本估算和成本管理工作具有一定的應用價值。
[Abstract]:The development of civil aircraft is a complex system engineering, with the characteristics of long development cycle, high complexity, high technical difficulty and many uncertain factors, which determines that the development process of civil aircraft needs a lot of capital investment. The success of civil aircraft development is not only the achievement of technology, but also the success of business and operation. Therefore, it is very important to control the development cost effectively. In this paper, the cost estimation of civil aircraft is studied, the index system of civil aircraft cost is constructed, and the cost estimation model of civil aircraft is constructed in the development stage and small batch production stage. On the basis of systematically summarizing the latest cost estimation methods at home and abroad, the development process of civil aircraft is deeply analyzed and the key characteristic index system of civil aircraft cost is established. The method of grey correlation analysis and autocorrelation is used to select the characteristic parameters. Secondly, the cost data of civil aircraft development stage and small batch production stage are generated by interpolation of DAPCA IV cost estimation model and partial least square method combined with investigation data. Based on GM0N) model and BP neural network, the cost estimation model of civil aircraft airframe is constructed, and the model based on partial least square method is constructed, and other characteristic parameters are not changed. The functional relationship between the factors influencing the development of civil aircraft airframe and the development cost is constructed, and the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed by using the obtained functional relationship. Thirdly, the research is focused on the purchasing cost of the aircraft engine system. A comprehensive cost estimation model of engine development based on genetic algorithm is constructed, and the cost estimation model of DAPCA IV of Rand Company is improved by adding several explanatory variables, and the cost estimation model of DAPCA IV is improved by repeated calculation, checking calculation and correlation analysis. The modified DAPCAIV cost estimation model for the key indexes of civil aircraft engine production cost, airframe man-hour cost and material cost is obtained. Based on the actual data, the accuracy and validity of the proposed model are verified. The cost estimation system of civil aircraft is developed with the GUI interface design in Matlab. The system can generate cost data and estimate the development cost of civil aircraft. The research results have certain application value to the cost estimation and cost management of civil aircraft development in China.
【學位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F406.72;F426.5

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