本文選題：貿(mào)易公司　切入點(diǎn)：期貨　出處：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來，大宗商品價(jià)格的波動(dòng)幅度越來越大，這一點(diǎn)從大宗商品CRB指數(shù)上面得到了明顯體現(xiàn)，銅、棉花、原油等代表性商品都有超過50%以上的價(jià)格變化，給企業(yè)的經(jīng)營帶來了極大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和挑戰(zhàn)。另一方面，期貨市場蓬勃發(fā)展，交易額屢創(chuàng)新高，新品種陸續(xù)上市，越來越多的企業(yè)開始通過期貨市場進(jìn)行套期保值交易，以期規(guī)避價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但是期貨市場是一把“雙刃劍”，它雖然有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)沖的作用，運(yùn)用不好，也會(huì)傷及自身。從“株冶”、“國儲(chǔ)銅”等套保事件來看，國內(nèi)企業(yè)并沒有很好的利用好期貨工具。國內(nèi)規(guī)范化操作的大企業(yè)尚且如此，可想而知眾多中小企業(yè)在套期保值交易中更是跌了數(shù)不清的跟頭。簽于此，近年來國內(nèi)學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)企業(yè)套期保值工作進(jìn)行了深入研究，從各個(gè)方面對(duì)套期保值工作中可能出現(xiàn)的基差風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、保證金風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等進(jìn)行識(shí)別和防范，這其中又以最佳套保比例的研究比較多見。但是筆者經(jīng)走訪青島保稅區(qū)眾多橡膠貿(mào)易公司發(fā)現(xiàn)，絕大多數(shù)重大的虧損都是由于內(nèi)控制度的缺失和對(duì)市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的判斷不足引起的，因此本文著重從這兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行介紹和研究。 本文以青島TJ貿(mào)易公司為研究對(duì)象，首先從理論上分析了青島TJ貿(mào)易公司在套期保值工作中所可能遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)現(xiàn)階段青島TJ貿(mào)易公司已經(jīng)實(shí)施的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施做了說明，并結(jié)合筆者的工作實(shí)際，指出最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于內(nèi)控制度的缺失和市場行情的錯(cuò)誤判斷。然后根據(jù)學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)期貨市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的研究現(xiàn)狀，重新設(shè)計(jì)完善了青島TJ貿(mào)易公司套期保值工作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制流程和措施，其中對(duì)內(nèi)控制度和市場行情風(fēng)險(xiǎn)這兩方面做了重點(diǎn)分析和研究。在內(nèi)控制度方面，建議實(shí)行嚴(yán)格的資金和交易分隔制度，做好套期保值工作的重要基礎(chǔ)，明確期貨套期保值組織機(jī)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)和相關(guān)崗位職責(zé)，制定詳細(xì)的套保工作流程，并做好相應(yīng)的災(zāi)備工作。在市場行情風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方面，除了對(duì)常用的基本面、技術(shù)面行情分析理論做了一定介紹外，創(chuàng)新性的把分形理論運(yùn)用到期貨行情的判斷分析中來，指出所有的期貨價(jià)格走勢圖、所有時(shí)間維度都可以以“倒Z字形”進(jìn)行完全分解。并且指出在當(dāng)下國內(nèi)期貨市場里，5分鐘維度、30分鐘維度、日線維度是具有迭代生成關(guān)系的三個(gè)相鄰維度，在此基礎(chǔ)上指出期貨界熟知的順勢交易實(shí)際上是“辯證的順勢”，對(duì)認(rèn)識(shí)商品價(jià)格走勢內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)，順應(yīng)市場趨勢進(jìn)行交易起到了比較好的啟示作用。 本文通過對(duì)青島TJ貿(mào)易公司期貨套期保值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的研究，，全面打造了青島TJ貿(mào)易公司期貨套期保值工作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制體系，為青島TJ貿(mào)易公司在未來發(fā)展過程中控制期貨套期保值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定經(jīng)營奠定了基礎(chǔ)。同時(shí)對(duì)中小型貿(mào)易公司套期保值交易實(shí)踐起到了積極的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, commodity prices have fluctuated more and more, which is evident from the CRB index of commodities. Copper, cotton, crude oil and other representative commodities have all experienced price changes of more than 50%. On the other hand, the futures market has flourished, the volume of transactions has repeatedly reached new highs, and new varieties have been listed one after another. More and more enterprises have started hedging transactions through the futures market. With a view to avoiding the risk of price fluctuations. But the futures market is a "double-edged sword". Although it has the role of hedging against risks, it can hurt itself if it is not used well. From the perspective of "Zhuye" and "National Copper Reserve" and other hedging incidents, Domestic enterprises have not made good use of futures tools. Even so, large enterprises operating in the country have standardized operations. It can be imagined that many small and medium-sized enterprises have fallen by countless numbers in hedging transactions. Signed here, In recent years, the domestic academic circles have carried on the thorough research to the enterprise hedging work, from each aspect may appear in the hedging work the base difference risk, the margin risk and so on carries on the identification and the guard. But after visiting many rubber trading companies in Qingdao bonded area, the author found that most of the major losses were caused by the lack of internal control system and insufficient judgment on market risks. Therefore, this paper focuses on these two aspects of the introduction and research. This paper takes Qingdao TJ Trading Company as the research object, first of all, analyzes the risk that Qingdao TJ Trading Company may encounter in the hedging work, and explains the risk control measures that have been implemented by Qingdao TJ Trading Company at the present stage. Combined with the author's actual work, the author points out that the biggest risk lies in the absence of internal control system and the wrong judgment of the market price. Then, according to the current situation of the research on the risk control of the futures market in academic circles, It has redesigned and perfected the risk control process and measures of the hedging work of Qingdao TJ Trading Company, among which the internal control system and the market market risk have been analyzed and studied emphatically. In terms of the internal control system, It is suggested that a strict system of separation of funds and transactions be implemented, an important basis for hedging work should be done, the design of futures hedging organizations and related post responsibilities should be clarified, and a detailed hedging workflow should be drawn up. And do a good job of disaster preparedness. In the aspect of market market risk control, in addition to introducing the commonly used fundamental and technical market analysis theories, we have innovatively applied fractal theory to the judgment and analysis of futures prices. Pointing out that all futures price trends can be completely decomposed in the form of "inverted Z" in all time dimensions, and pointing out that in the current domestic futures market, the 5-minute dimension has a 30-minute dimension. The diurnal dimension is the three adjacent dimensions with iterative generation relationship. On this basis, it is pointed out that homeopathic trading, which is well known in the futures world, is actually "dialectical homeopathy", which is useful for understanding the internal structure of commodity price trend. Comply with the market trend of trading has played a relatively good role in inspiration. Based on the study of futures hedging risk control of Qingdao TJ Trading Company, this paper establishes a risk control system for futures hedging in Qingdao TJ Trading Company. It lays a foundation for TJ Trading Company to control futures hedging risk and realize stable operation in the future. It also plays a positive role in the practice of hedging transactions of small and medium-sized trading companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F724.6;F752;F740.45

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