【摘要】：工程項(xiàng)目前期的投資估算是優(yōu)選方案以及資金籌措的依據(jù),同時(shí)對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目總成本的控制有著至關(guān)重要的作用。以往投資估算方法的簡(jiǎn)單滯后性導(dǎo)致估算誤差較大、結(jié)果不夠準(zhǔn)確,因而尋找貼合工程實(shí)際、更為科學(xué)有效的投資估算方法來(lái)保證工程項(xiàng)目投資估算的準(zhǔn)確度是急需解決的問(wèn)題。 本文以公路交通項(xiàng)目為例,以全生命周期顯著性造價(jià)理論(WLCS)和已完類似工程為基礎(chǔ),通過(guò)對(duì)公路工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn)分析,依據(jù)擁有訓(xùn)練樣本的不同情況建立相應(yīng)的非線性投資估算模型來(lái)擬合工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)與其各影響因素之間的非線性關(guān)系,從而對(duì)公路交通項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行造價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)。首先利用粗糙集(RS)的屬性約簡(jiǎn)特性來(lái)挖掘工程數(shù)據(jù),提取建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的工程特征,克服以往尋找有效工程特征方法的主觀性,從而證明該方法的科學(xué)有效性。面對(duì)擬建工程項(xiàng)目的訓(xùn)練樣本數(shù)量的不同,分別采用不同的非線性投資估算方法。若訓(xùn)練樣本的數(shù)量一定,采用模糊聚類FC估算方法對(duì)擬建項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行造價(jià)估算,通過(guò)實(shí)例驗(yàn)證該方法是有效可行的。而面對(duì)大量訓(xùn)練樣本的情況,則采用智能集成估算方法,主要包括粗糙集—神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(RS-BP)估算法、蟻群—神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(ACO-BP)估算法以及粒子群—徑向基網(wǎng)絡(luò)(PSO-RBF)估算法。RS-BP估算法是用粗糙集首先對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輸入變量作約簡(jiǎn)預(yù)處理,然后利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練預(yù)測(cè)。ACO-BP與PSO-RBF估算法是利用群智能對(duì)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,從而得到智能集成估算方法。通過(guò)案例仿真證明該算法更加貼合工程實(shí)際,大大加快訓(xùn)練速度,降低誤差,提高工程造價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)精度,體現(xiàn)了該算法的科學(xué)性與優(yōu)越性。在以上方法基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用虛擬技術(shù)建立投資方案虛擬可視化模型,使投資方案直觀形象展現(xiàn)在決策者面前。
[Abstract]:The investment estimation in the early stage of the project is the basis for the optimal selection of the project and the raising of funds. At the same time, it plays an important role in the control of the total cost of the project. In the past, the simple lag of investment estimation method resulted in large estimation error and inaccuracy of the result, so it is practical to find a fitting project. More scientific and effective investment estimation method to ensure the accuracy of project investment estimation is an urgent problem. This paper takes the highway transportation project as an example, based on the life-cycle significant cost theory (WLCS) and similar projects, through the analysis of the characteristics of highway construction projects. According to the different conditions with training samples, the corresponding nonlinear investment estimation model is established to fit the nonlinear relationship between the project cost and its influencing factors, so as to predict the cost of highway traffic projects. Firstly, the attribute reduction characteristic of rough set (RS) is used to mine engineering data, to extract the engineering features of construction projects, to overcome the subjectivity of the previous methods of finding effective engineering features, and to prove the scientific validity of this method. In the face of the different training samples of the proposed project, different nonlinear investment estimation methods are used. If the number of training samples is constant, the method of fuzzy clustering FC estimation is used to estimate the cost of the proposed project. The example shows that this method is effective and feasible. In the case of a large number of training samples, intelligent ensemble estimation method is used, including rough set neural network (RS-BP) estimation method. Ant Colony Neural Network (ACO-BP) estimation and Particle Swarm Radial basis Network (PSO-RBF) estimation. The RS-BP estimation method uses rough set to preprocess the input variables of the network. ACO-BP and PSO-RBF estimate method is to optimize the neural network by using swarm intelligence, and then the intelligent integrated estimation method is obtained. The simulation results show that the algorithm is more suitable to the engineering practice, greatly speeds up the training speed, reduces the error, and improves the accuracy of the project cost prediction, which reflects the scientific nature and superiority of the algorithm. On the basis of the above methods, the virtual visualization model of investment scheme is established by using virtual technology, so that the visual image of investment scheme can be displayed in front of decision makers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石家莊鐵道大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F542

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