【摘要】：隨著生活水平不斷提高，人們對(duì)公交客運(yùn)的要求越來越高，這時(shí)具有快速、舒適等特點(diǎn)的出租車的需求正好滿足了出行者高層次的需求，，它已成為城市客運(yùn)交通系統(tǒng)的一個(gè)重要補(bǔ)充。出租車作為城市客運(yùn)交通系統(tǒng)中重要一環(huán)，在系統(tǒng)中應(yīng)當(dāng)占有多大的分擔(dān)率，政府每年的投放量該如何控制，如何才能使城市的客運(yùn)交通系統(tǒng)更加完善，更好地促進(jìn)出租車行業(yè)健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展，現(xiàn)在已成為一個(gè)越來越被關(guān)注的課題。 大連作為一個(gè)走在發(fā)展前列的城市，出租車行業(yè)在近幾年發(fā)展卻比較緩慢，本文以大連市為例，通過歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)大連市出租車的運(yùn)力規(guī)模進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)和修正。但隨著大連地鐵即將建成，在未來要根據(jù)這一種重要影響因素，控制好出租車投放量，避免在大連地鐵建成之后，出現(xiàn)投放量過大而導(dǎo)致空載率過高的現(xiàn)象。本文先對(duì)影響客運(yùn)總量的因素進(jìn)行了一一分析，然后運(yùn)用SPSS軟件對(duì)未來的客運(yùn)總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，再通過建立出租車分擔(dān)率模型，分別計(jì)算出地鐵建成前后出租車不同的分擔(dān)率，再通過供需平衡法來計(jì)算出租車合理的運(yùn)力規(guī)模，然后對(duì)此運(yùn)力規(guī)模進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析，并對(duì)出租車行業(yè)提出了建議。 現(xiàn)在大多數(shù)城市地鐵已經(jīng)建成或即將建成，這對(duì)出租車市場(chǎng)會(huì)造成不小的沖擊，在面對(duì)這種情況，如何更加合理的推算出出租車的運(yùn)力規(guī)模是非常重要的。大多數(shù)研究并沒有把地鐵這一重要影響因素加入到模型中，這對(duì)于合理計(jì)算出租車運(yùn)力規(guī)模是不準(zhǔn)確的，本文在模型中加入這一重要影響因素，從而更加合理的計(jì)算出租車運(yùn)力規(guī)模。論文旨在為大連市出租車行業(yè)提供理論依據(jù)，為出租車運(yùn)力規(guī)模調(diào)控提供科學(xué)合理的數(shù)學(xué)模型。通過對(duì)論文預(yù)測(cè)模型中參數(shù)、數(shù)據(jù)和決策的合理分析和適當(dāng)標(biāo)定，結(jié)合大連市實(shí)際情況、未來出租車行業(yè)的發(fā)展方向和在綜合交通系統(tǒng)中的定位，運(yùn)用客運(yùn)總量預(yù)測(cè)模型和出租車分擔(dān)率模型做出適合本地實(shí)情的正確決策，維護(hù)出租車行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of living standards, people have higher and higher requirements for public transport. At this time, the demand for taxis with the characteristics of speed and comfort just meets the needs of travelers at a high level. It has become an important supplement to the urban passenger transport system. As an important part of the urban passenger transportation system, how much share should the taxi take in the system, how to control the amount of the annual government, and how to make the city's passenger transport system more perfect? Better promote the taxi industry healthy and stable development, has become a more and more concerned topic. Dalian, as a city in the forefront of development, taxi industry in recent years has been relatively slow development, this paper takes Dalian as an example, through historical data to evaluate and revise the scale of taxi capacity in Dalian. However, with the completion of Dalian Metro, it is necessary to control the number of taxis according to this important influence factor in the future, to avoid the phenomenon of excessive quantity and high no-load rate after the completion of Dalian Metro. In this paper, the factors that affect the total amount of passenger transportation are analyzed one by one, then the future total amount of passenger transportation is predicted by using SPSS software, and then the different sharing rates of taxis before and after the completion of the subway are calculated by establishing the taxi share rate model. The reasonable capacity scale of taxi is calculated by the method of balance of supply and demand, then the capacity scale of taxi is evaluated and analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward to the taxi industry. Now most city subway has been built or is about to be built, which will have a great impact on the taxi market. In the face of this situation, how to calculate the scale of taxi capacity more reasonably is very important. Most of the studies do not include the subway as an important factor in the model, which is not accurate for the reasonable calculation of taxi capacity, this paper adds this important influence factor to the model. Thus more reasonable calculation of taxi capacity scale. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for the taxi industry in Dalian and to provide a scientific and reasonable mathematical model for the scale control of taxi capacity. Through reasonable analysis and proper calibration of parameters, data and decision-making in the prediction model of the paper, combined with the actual situation of Dalian City, the future development direction of taxi industry and its orientation in the integrated transportation system are discussed. In order to maintain the healthy development of taxi industry, the forecast model of total passenger transportation and the model of taxi share rate are used to make the correct decision suitable for the local situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F572.7

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