【摘要】：近年來,國際鐵礦石貿(mào)易激增極大地刺激了全球大型干散貨船隊(duì)特別是超大型礦砂船隊(duì)的發(fā)展,而淡水河谷40萬噸超大型礦砂船隊(duì)建設(shè)更是使干散貨船大型化問題成為航運(yùn)界討論和研究的熱點(diǎn)。在當(dāng)前干散貨船舶供需失衡和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇疲軟的背景下,研究大型干散貨船建造對(duì)航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)有如何影響,尤其是研究國際礦商主導(dǎo)大型干散貨船建設(shè)對(duì)航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)乃至國際海運(yùn)貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)的影響具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和理論價(jià)值。 首先,本文通過對(duì)全球干散貨船隊(duì)及船東的實(shí)證分析,得到干散貨船舶大型化發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀和特征,并利用時(shí)間序列法和趨勢(shì)外推法對(duì)未來幾年內(nèi)船舶大型化發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),研究及預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明未來幾年干散貨船隊(duì)加速大型化的趨勢(shì)將保持不變,而且將在很大程度上由國際礦商主導(dǎo)。然后,本文利用計(jì)量統(tǒng)計(jì)和費(fèi)用分析的方法研究干散貨船大型化的經(jīng)濟(jì)合理性,得到超大型干散貨船能夠適應(yīng)海運(yùn)需求增長(zhǎng),降低海運(yùn)成本,具有較強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)合理性的初步結(jié)論。接著,本文以國際礦商促使干散貨船過度大型化為前提研究在當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)條件下干散貨船超大型化對(duì)全球海運(yùn)市場(chǎng)、國際海運(yùn)貿(mào)易和國內(nèi)外港口建設(shè)的負(fù)面影響,研究表明一方面超大型干散貨船建設(shè)將加劇航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)供需失衡及港口能力過剩,另一方面淡水河谷的VLOC船隊(duì)建設(shè)旨在控制海運(yùn)貿(mào)易產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈獲取額外利潤(rùn)。最后,本文從航運(yùn)企業(yè)和航運(yùn)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈方面闡述了應(yīng)對(duì)船舶大型化的對(duì)策建議,我國干散貨運(yùn)輸企業(yè)需要積極參與船舶大型化,我國政府主管部門及相關(guān)企業(yè)需要共同維護(hù)我國鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈利益和鋼鐵貿(mào)易安全,促進(jìn)我國航運(yùn)和鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the surge in international iron ore trade has greatly stimulated the development of large dry bulk cargo fleets around the world, especially super-large ore fleets. The construction of Vale 400000 ton super large ore flotilla makes the large-scale dry bulk cargo ship become a hot topic in the shipping field. Against the background of the current imbalance between supply and demand of dry bulk ships and the weak global economic recovery, this paper studies how the construction of large dry bulk carriers will affect the shipping market. In particular, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study the influence of the construction of large dry bulk carriers led by international miners on the shipping market and even the international maritime trade market. First of all, through the empirical analysis of the global dry bulk fleet and shipowners, this paper obtains the status quo and characteristics of the large-scale development of dry bulk ships. The time series method and trend extrapolation method are used to predict the trend of large-scale development of ships in the next few years. The research and forecast results show that the trend of accelerating large-scale dry bulk cargo fleet will remain unchanged in the next few years. And will be largely dominated by international miners. Then, using the methods of econometric statistics and cost analysis, this paper studies the economic rationality of the large-scale dry bulk carrier, and obtains that the super-large dry bulk carrier can adapt to the increase of maritime demand and reduce the shipping cost. Have strong economic rationality of the preliminary conclusion. Then, based on the premise of oversize dry bulk carriers by international miners, this paper studies the negative effects of oversize dry bulk carriers on the global shipping market, international maritime trade and port construction at home and abroad under the current market conditions. On the one hand, the construction of super-large dry bulk carriers will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the shipping market and the excess port capacity. On the other hand, the construction of Vale's VLOC fleet is aimed at controlling the marine trade industry chain to obtain additional profits. Finally, this paper expounds the countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the ship size from the aspects of shipping enterprises and shipping industry chain. The dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises of our country need to take an active part in the ship enlargement. Our government departments and related enterprises need to jointly maintain the interests of China's iron and steel industry chain and the safety of iron and steel trade to promote the healthy development of our shipping and steel industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F550;U692.6

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 張婧姝;我國進(jìn)口鐵礦石適宜船型研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號(hào)：2306524