本文選題：城市公交 + 等車滿意度　； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),我國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程不斷加快,大量人員涌入城市,城市交通系統(tǒng)負(fù)擔(dān)越來(lái)越沉重。如果沒(méi)有科學(xué)的規(guī)劃和管理,城市化加速的背后必然會(huì)引起交通堵塞、出行緩慢、環(huán)境污染等一系列問(wèn)題。據(jù)理論界學(xué)者的研究和國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明優(yōu)先發(fā)展公交系統(tǒng)可以有效地解決交通擁堵和緩解空氣污染等問(wèn)題。 優(yōu)先發(fā)展公交,提高公交系統(tǒng)的整體服務(wù)水平,從而吸引更多的出行者選擇公交方式出行已是我國(guó)許多城市完善交通系統(tǒng)努力的方向。公交系統(tǒng)是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的綜合系統(tǒng),許多學(xué)者研究中將公交服務(wù)質(zhì)量系統(tǒng)劃分為等車質(zhì)量、旅途質(zhì)量、場(chǎng)站服務(wù)質(zhì)量和信息質(zhì)量等。本文基于前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)公交乘客等車滿意度進(jìn)行深入研究；探討乘客等車滿意度的影響因素；建立乘客等車滿意度模型,挖掘影響因素與滿意度之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系。 本文研究可以歸納為四個(gè)方面： 1、以成都公交為背景,基于RP和SP相結(jié)合的方法,設(shè)計(jì)成都市乘客公交等車滿意度調(diào)查問(wèn)卷；采用多階段抽樣的調(diào)查方法,重點(diǎn)考察了成都市企業(yè)上班族和學(xué)生兩個(gè)群體的公交出行行為,并進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。 2、運(yùn)用因子分析方法對(duì)影響乘客等車滿意度的所有因素進(jìn)行分析,找出變量間共同的因子成分,對(duì)影響因素進(jìn)行歸類；利用因子均值和重要性排名找出對(duì)乘客等車滿意度影響最重要的因子——等車時(shí)間。 3、通過(guò)調(diào)查得到的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)探索等車時(shí)間與等車滿意度之間的函數(shù)基本形式；利用ORIGIN軟件對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行擬合,構(gòu)建等車時(shí)間與等車滿意度的降指數(shù)模型；定義時(shí)間偏離度概念,通過(guò)函數(shù)變換得到時(shí)間偏離度與等車滿意度之間的函數(shù)關(guān)系符合展望理論的基本假設(shè)。 4、參考點(diǎn)選取的不同會(huì)直接影響乘客等車滿意度的心里感受。因此本文考察了等車時(shí)間參考點(diǎn)的形成和變換規(guī)律,建立參考點(diǎn)影響因素的多元線性回歸模型,得到“職業(yè)”、“預(yù)計(jì)發(fā)車間隔”、“電子站牌1站時(shí)間”、“一般等車時(shí)間”等4個(gè)變量組合顯著預(yù)測(cè)了等車時(shí)間參考點(diǎn)。 本文通過(guò)實(shí)證研究的方法探索影響乘客等車滿意度的理論模型,得到的結(jié)論可以為公交集團(tuán)運(yùn)營(yíng)策略的完善和公交服務(wù)的提高提供決策參考。
[Abstract]:With the growth of economy, the process of urbanization in China is speeding up, a large number of people are pouring into cities, and the burden of urban transportation system is becoming more and more heavy. Without scientific planning and management, the acceleration of urbanization will inevitably lead to traffic congestion, slow travel, environmental pollution and a series of problems. According to the research of theorists and the experience of developed countries, the priority bus system can effectively solve the problems of traffic congestion and air pollution mitigation. Giving priority to the development of public transport, improving the overall service level of the public transport system, so as to attract more travelers to choose public transport mode travel has been the direction of many cities in our country to improve the transportation system. Bus system is a complex integrated system. Many scholars divide the quality of bus service system into waiting quality, travel quality, station service quality and information quality. Based on the previous studies, this paper makes a thorough study on the satisfaction of bus passengers waiting for vehicles; discusses the factors affecting the satisfaction of passengers waiting for vehicles; establishes a model of satisfaction of passengers waiting for vehicles; and excavates the internal relationship between the factors and satisfaction. This paper can be summed up into four aspects: 1, Chengdu bus as a background, based on RP and SP combination of the design of Chengdu passenger bus satisfaction questionnaire, the use of multi-stage sampling survey method, This paper focuses on the bus travel behavior of the two groups of office workers and students in Chengdu, and carries out statistical analysis. 2. Using factor analysis method to analyze all the factors that affect the satisfaction of passengers waiting for cars. Find out the common factor components among variables, classify the influencing factors; use factor mean and importance ranking to find out the most important factor on passenger waiting satisfaction. 3. Using BP neural network to explore the basic form of the function between waiting time and waiting vehicle satisfaction, using ORIGIN software to fit the data, build the waiting time and waiting vehicle satisfaction index model, define the concept of time deviation, The functional relationship between the degree of time deviation and the degree of satisfaction of waiting vehicles is obtained by functional transformation. 4. The choice of reference points will directly affect the psychological feelings of passengers' satisfaction with waiting for vehicles. In this paper, the formation and transformation of waiting time reference points are investigated, and the multivariate linear regression model of the influence factors of reference points is established, and the "occupation", "estimated departure interval", "the time of the first stop of the electronic station" are obtained. The combination of "general waiting time" and other four variables significantly predicted the waiting time reference points. In this paper, the theoretical model of passenger waiting satisfaction is explored by empirical research, and the conclusion can be used as a reference for the improvement of bus group operation strategy and bus service.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F572;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2071941