本文選題：高鐵項(xiàng)目 + 國(guó)際工程　； 參考：《東南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著2009年高鐵“走出去”戰(zhàn)略、2013年“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略構(gòu)想,以及2016年“中國(guó)制造2025”戰(zhàn)略的提出,中國(guó)高鐵“走出去”面臨著寶貴的發(fā)展機(jī)遇。目前,中國(guó)已與30多個(gè)國(guó)家簽署了高鐵合作意向書或協(xié)議書。但與此同時(shí),國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也給中國(guó)高鐵承包商造成了災(zāi)難性損失。遺憾的是,政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并未引起足夠的重視,很多中國(guó)高鐵承包商的海外開拓風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃,甚至就沒有政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的考量。因此,有必要對(duì)中國(guó)高鐵“走出去”的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定性和定量研究,使中國(guó)高鐵在規(guī)避政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的前提下更好地走入國(guó)際市場(chǎng)。本文的研究是在對(duì)國(guó)際工程市場(chǎng)中中國(guó)高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素識(shí)別的基礎(chǔ)上,分析海外高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成機(jī)理,提出海外高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法并構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的對(duì)策體系。首先,通過文獻(xiàn)綜述和案例識(shí)別國(guó)際工程市場(chǎng)中中國(guó)高鐵項(xiàng)目的6種政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件,進(jìn)而通過16個(gè)海外高鐵項(xiàng)目案例的詳細(xì)數(shù)據(jù),借助扎根理論,識(shí)別出影響政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的26個(gè)高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素。再而,運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究和案例推理構(gòu)建高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型,分析因素之間的相互影響關(guān)系以及因素引發(fā)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件,并導(dǎo)致一定后果的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成機(jī)理。之后,在政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成機(jī)理分析的基礎(chǔ)上得到了政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成路徑,將這些路徑匯總得到國(guó)際工程市場(chǎng)中中國(guó)高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響圖,其中以企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)特性、文化差異、國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性、國(guó)際政策變化、腐敗、黨派之爭(zhēng)、項(xiàng)目需求程度為8個(gè)獨(dú)立結(jié)點(diǎn),政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為價(jià)值結(jié)點(diǎn),成為模糊影響圖評(píng)價(jià)的基礎(chǔ),通過專家咨詢和世界銀行等數(shù)據(jù)庫的資料確定獨(dú)立結(jié)點(diǎn)的頻率狀態(tài)以及緊前結(jié)點(diǎn)對(duì)緊后結(jié)點(diǎn)的模糊函數(shù),并以新馬高鐵項(xiàng)目為例分析模糊影響圖評(píng)價(jià)方法的有效性和可操作性。最后,從政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成路徑出發(fā),在源頭政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素、過程政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素、和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生的三個(gè)階段從國(guó)家、企業(yè)、項(xiàng)目層面提出防范對(duì)策控制海外高鐵項(xiàng)目的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文的研究結(jié)果一定程度上豐富了國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其管理的研究體系,構(gòu)建的海外高鐵項(xiàng)目政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)及對(duì)策體系能夠?yàn)橹袊?guó)高鐵承包商開拓海外市場(chǎng)應(yīng)對(duì)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供可行且有效的決策支持。
[Abstract]:With the "going out" strategy in 2009, the strategic concept of "Belt and Road" in 2013 and the "made in China 2025" strategy in 2016, China's high-speed rail "going out" faces valuable development opportunities. At present, China has signed letters of intent or agreements with more than 30 countries on high-speed rail cooperation. At the same time, political risks on international markets have caused disastrous losses for Chinese high-speed rail contractors. Unfortunately, political risk has not been taken seriously enough, and many Chinese high-speed rail contractors' overseas development risk management plans have not even been taken into account. Therefore, it is necessary to qualitatively and quantitatively study the political risk of China's high-speed rail "going out", so that China's high-speed rail can better enter the international market on the premise of avoiding political risks. Based on the identification of political risk factors of Chinese high-speed rail projects in the international engineering market, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of political risks in overseas high-speed rail projects. The political risk evaluation method of overseas high-speed railway project is put forward and the corresponding countermeasure system is constructed. First of all, through literature review and case identification of six political risk events of Chinese high-speed rail projects in the international engineering market, and then through the detailed data of 16 overseas high-speed rail projects, with the help of rooted theory, Identify 26 high-speed railway project political risk factors that affect political risk events. Then, the paper uses literature research and case-based reasoning to construct the explanatory structure model of the political risk of the high-speed rail project, analyzes the mutual influence between the factors and the political risk events caused by the factors, and leads to the formation mechanism of the political risk with certain consequences. After that, on the basis of the analysis of the formation mechanism of political risk, the formation path of political risk is obtained, and the influence chart of political risk of Chinese high-speed rail project in international engineering market is obtained, which is based on the characteristics of enterprise management and cultural differences. International competition, international economic stability, international policy change, corruption, party contention, the degree of project demand is 8 independent nodes, political risk is the value node, which becomes the basis of fuzzy impact map evaluation. The frequency state of independent nodes and the fuzzy function between the former node and the back node are determined by expert consultation and the data of database such as the World Bank. The effectiveness and maneuverability of the evaluation method of fuzzy impact diagram are analyzed with the example of Xinma-Malaysia High Speed Railway Project. Finally, starting from the formation path of political risk, at the source of political risk influencing factors, process political risk influencing factors, and political risk events occurring in the three stages from the country, enterprises, Project level proposed preventive measures to control the political risks of overseas high-speed rail projects. To some extent, the research results of this paper have enriched the research system of political risk and management of international engineering projects. The political risk evaluation and countermeasure system of overseas high-speed rail projects can provide feasible and effective decision support for Chinese high-speed rail contractors to open up overseas markets to deal with political risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F532;F125

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