本文選題：高速公路 + BOT　； 參考：《南京理工大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：風險管理作為項目管理的內容之一,對項目管理的整體性和最終的目標實現(xiàn)有著極大的影響。在采取BOT項目融資的方式進行項目建設時,其風險管理的過程是受到諸多因素影響的。諸如國內外政治、經濟因素的改變,項目參與方之間的協(xié)調合作,投融資的結構選擇,項目資金的來源等問題都會對項目的建設進程產生影響,這些問題同樣會影響到項目的運營成本和運營期的經濟強度,以上問題只有通過正確地對項目風險進行識別、評估、分析并在此基礎上通過合理的風險分擔實現(xiàn)對風險的動態(tài)控制,才能夠得到徹底的解決。目前在風險評估中面對參與決策主體過多、決策意見模糊復雜而量化困難、或者決策意見量化結果失真等問題,學術界提出的解決辦法還不是很充分和系統(tǒng),本文由這一問題展開,希望能對BOT項目的風險管理提供建議。 本文從項目整體視角出發(fā),對BOT模式的高速公路項目風險因素進行了分析識別,概述了不同風險主體所面臨的主要風險。綜合了項目融資決策過程中的各方因素,從項目整體出發(fā),考慮參與項目的各利益相關方,有代表性地選取風險評估指標,運用模糊多屬性決策的原理設計了一個BOT項目的風險評估排序模型。該模型使用了動態(tài)多目標決策的方法,并結合本文案例,使用本文建立的風險排序模型幫助其解決決策問題。本模型比之傳統(tǒng)模型,其優(yōu)勢在于結構更為簡單,便于理解,決策信息量在評估過程中得到了充分的體現(xiàn),而且在計算上有較高的可行度,同時避免了之前模型中的評價指標權重設立問題,最大限度地保持專家意見的客觀完整性。最后通過具體項目中的風險評估計算演示了如何為高速公路項目BOT融資決策提供依據。對BOT項目中的風險及其分擔主體進行了分析,并對當前風險分擔的原則進行了歸納總結,在當前學者研究的基礎上,通過案例總結和資料梳理對BOT項目風險分擔合同的設置機制進行了分析,并對其實施機制提出了建議。
[Abstract]:As one of the contents of project management, risk management has great influence on the integrity of project management and the realization of its ultimate goal. The risk management process of BOT project financing is influenced by many factors. Problems such as changes in political and economic factors at home and abroad, coordination and cooperation among project participants, structural choice of investment and financing, and sources of project funds will all have an impact on the construction process of the project. These problems will also affect the operating cost and economic intensity of the project. The above problems can only be identified and evaluated by correctly identifying and evaluating the risks of the project. On the basis of analyzing and realizing the dynamic control of risk through reasonable risk sharing, it can be solved thoroughly. At present, faced with the problems of too many participants in decision making, fuzzy and complex decision opinions and difficult quantification, or distortion of quantitative results of decision opinions in risk assessment, the solutions put forward by the academic circles are not very sufficient and systematic. This paper starts with this problem and hopes to provide advice for risk management of BOT project. From the view of the whole project, this paper analyzes and identifies the risk factors of expressway project based on BOT mode, and summarizes the main risks faced by different risk subjects. Synthesizing all the factors in the decision-making process of project financing, considering the stakeholders involved in the project, selecting the risk assessment index representative from the project as a whole. Based on the principle of fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making, a BOT project risk evaluation ranking model is designed. The method of dynamic multi-objective decision making is used in this model, and the risk ranking model established in this paper is used to solve the decision problem. Compared with the traditional model, the advantage of this model is that the structure is simpler and easier to understand, the decision information is fully reflected in the evaluation process, and the calculation is more feasible. At the same time, the problem of setting up the weight of evaluation index in the former model is avoided, and the objective integrity of expert opinion is maintained as far as possible. Finally, the paper demonstrates how to provide the basis for the BOT financing decision of expressway project through the risk assessment calculation in the specific project. This paper analyzes the risk and its main body in BOT project, and summarizes the principles of risk sharing at present. This paper analyzes the setting mechanism of BOT project risk sharing contract through case summary and data combing, and puts forward some suggestions on its implementation mechanism.
【學位授予單位】：南京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F272.3;F542

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本文編號：1915668