本文選題：航運(yùn)企業(yè) + 外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別�。� 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著航運(yùn)價(jià)格、燃料油價(jià)格、匯率和利率水平的大幅度波動(dòng),我國(guó)航運(yùn)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)面臨著較大的外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn),這些外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的直接后果是我國(guó)航運(yùn)企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績(jī)出現(xiàn)前所未有的低迷,如長(zhǎng)航鳳凰的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率超過(guò)100%,各航運(yùn)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率出現(xiàn)負(fù)值,如何控制這些外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)上的影響已成為我國(guó)航運(yùn)企業(yè)亟待解決的問(wèn)題,如果不能有效利用外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制手段或方法管理這些外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn),我國(guó)航運(yùn)企業(yè)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展必然受到嚴(yán)重威脅。 在現(xiàn)行的航運(yùn)企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制研究中,大部分只是集中于某個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),沒(méi)有很好的將航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)聯(lián)系起來(lái),沒(méi)有提出完整的識(shí)別、評(píng)估和控制航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法。本文利用專(zhuān)家打分識(shí)別航運(yùn)企業(yè)面臨的外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn),基于航運(yùn)企業(yè)特有的金融特色,將金融行業(yè)的外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、評(píng)估和管理理論方法運(yùn)用到航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中,形成了具有航運(yùn)金融特色的外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方法和理論。本文的重點(diǎn)內(nèi)容是航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別與評(píng)估、外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系及航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制研究。首先利用圖形描述外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的波動(dòng)趨勢(shì),利用模糊層次分析法(F-AHP)識(shí)別外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重。收集歷年航運(yùn)價(jià)格、燃料油價(jià)格、匯率和利率水平數(shù)據(jù),再利用偏離風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、趨勢(shì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和絕對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算出航運(yùn)價(jià)格、燃料油價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、匯率波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和利率波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),將四類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)求和,計(jì)算外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值。 準(zhǔn)確識(shí)別和評(píng)估航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的前提下,分析航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)理,建立外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)四個(gè)指標(biāo)與航運(yùn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)關(guān)系,再?gòu)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)路徑提出控制外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)方法,最后利用金融衍生工具提出控制航運(yùn)企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的策略及方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the large fluctuation of shipping price, fuel oil price, exchange rate and interest rate level, the shipping enterprises in our country are facing great external risks.The direct consequence of these external risks is the unprecedented downturn in the financial performance of our shipping enterprises. For example, the assets and liabilities ratio of Cheung Hang Phoenix exceeds 100, and the profit growth rate of various shipping enterprises is negative.How to control these external risks and their financial impact has become an urgent problem for our shipping enterprises. If we can not effectively use external risk control means or methods to manage these external risks,The long-term and stable development of shipping enterprises in China is bound to be seriously threatened.In the current research on risk control of shipping enterprises, most of them only focus on some financial risk or market fluctuation risk, which does not link shipping enterprises' external risks with their financial risks, and does not provide a complete identification.Methods of assessing and controlling the external risks of shipping enterprises.In this paper, experts are used to identify the external risks faced by shipping enterprises, and based on the unique financial characteristics of shipping enterprises, the external risk identification, evaluation and management methods of financial industry are applied to the external risk management of shipping enterprises.Formed the shipping finance characteristic external risk control method and the theory.This paper focuses on the identification and evaluation of external risks of shipping enterprises, the relationship between external risks and financial risks, and the study on the control of external risks of shipping enterprises.Firstly, the fluctuation trend of external risk source is described by graph, and the weight of external risk index is identified by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP).Collect data on shipping prices, fuel oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the years, and then use deviation risk, trend risk and absolute risk to calculate shipping prices, fuel oil price volatility risk, exchange rate volatility risk and interest rate volatility risk,The four types of risk are weighted and summed to calculate the value of external risk.On the premise of accurately identifying and evaluating the external risks of shipping enterprises, the transmission mechanism of external risks of shipping enterprises is analyzed, and the transmission relationship between the four indexes of external risks and the financial risks of shipping enterprises is established.Then, the paper puts forward the method of controlling external risk transmission from the risk transmission path, and finally puts forward the strategy and method of controlling the external risk of shipping enterprises by using financial derivatives.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F552.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 葉厚元;鄧明然;;企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的六種方式及其特征[J];管理現(xiàn)代化;2005年06期

2 李國(guó)平;;現(xiàn)代金融背景下企業(yè)的外匯期貨套期保值可行性分析[J];高職論叢;2008年04期

3 王琪,李宜軍;航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其規(guī)避策略淺析[J];水運(yùn)管理;2002年04期

4 曾昭舜;國(guó)際航運(yùn)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)中的航運(yùn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[J];水運(yùn)管理;1999年05期

5 邵瑞慶;國(guó)際航運(yùn)業(yè)融資決策系列研究之四──國(guó)際航運(yùn)的收入與成本(下)[J];水運(yùn)管理;1994年09期

6 羅虎;;美元指數(shù)與國(guó)際航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)[J];水運(yùn)管理;2006年04期

，

本文編號(hào)：1766795