本文選題：鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心　切入點(diǎn)：貨運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的不斷深化和運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的日益加劇,鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸迫切需要調(diào)整服務(wù)功能、提升服務(wù)水平。而鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心作為鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要組成部分,能夠在充分借助既有場(chǎng)站設(shè)施設(shè)備進(jìn)行貨物流通加工作業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用鐵路運(yùn)輸能力加快貨物周轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)輸。鐵路總公司十分重視鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心的規(guī)劃建設(shè),并于2015年8月出臺(tái)《鐵路物流基地布局規(guī)劃及2015～2017年建設(shè)計(jì)劃》(鐵總計(jì)統(tǒng)[2015]232號(hào))。因此,合理地規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心對(duì)發(fā)揮鐵路運(yùn)輸優(yōu)勢(shì)、提升物流系統(tǒng)運(yùn)作效率具有重要意義。本文在大量查閱國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,采用理論研究與實(shí)地調(diào)研相結(jié)合的方法,從以下四個(gè)方面對(duì)鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃問(wèn)題展開了研究:(1)對(duì)鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心的基本概念進(jìn)行了闡述并對(duì)其類型進(jìn)行了劃分,在分析鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心的功能設(shè)置、常運(yùn)貨物品類、功能區(qū)劃分以及基本業(yè)務(wù)流程的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃的基本思路。(2)對(duì)鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心貨運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)的基本步驟進(jìn)行了闡述,描述了鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心的吸引范圍,并設(shè)計(jì)了基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析的區(qū)域鐵路貨運(yùn)量影響因素指標(biāo)選取方法和基于IOWA算子的區(qū)域鐵路貨運(yùn)量組合預(yù)測(cè)模型。在進(jìn)行鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心貨運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)首先采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法對(duì)初選的影響因素指標(biāo)進(jìn)行關(guān)聯(lián)度分析,并選取關(guān)聯(lián)度較強(qiáng)的影響因素指標(biāo)作為預(yù)測(cè)模型的影響因素指標(biāo);其次采用灰色預(yù)測(cè)GM(1,1)對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)年度區(qū)域鐵路貨運(yùn)量的影響因素指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),采用灰色預(yù)測(cè)GM(1,h)、多元線性回歸預(yù)測(cè)以及BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)三種方法對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)年度區(qū)域鐵路貨運(yùn)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),然后采用IOWA算子通過(guò)精度計(jì)算并排序?qū)⑷N預(yù)測(cè)方法組合起來(lái)對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)年度區(qū)域鐵路貨運(yùn)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè);最后描述了鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心承擔(dān)區(qū)域鐵路貨運(yùn)量的估算方法。(3)對(duì)鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了研究,給出了不同功能區(qū)面積的計(jì)算方法,在研究現(xiàn)有功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃方法的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃要求提出了鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃的改進(jìn)SLP方法。在進(jìn)行鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃時(shí)首先將鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心的到發(fā)場(chǎng)、調(diào)車場(chǎng)、出入口以及規(guī)劃區(qū)域外界的影響因素等均假設(shè)為功能區(qū):其次分析并量化各功能區(qū)之間的物流相關(guān)性和細(xì)化的非物流相關(guān)性;然后以物流中心內(nèi)外部貨物搬運(yùn)總成本最小、各功能區(qū)之間的綜合相關(guān)性系數(shù)之和最大以及物流中心土地利用率最高為目標(biāo)建立鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心功能區(qū)布局多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型,并設(shè)計(jì)了遺傳算法求解模型的基本步驟;最后描述了最優(yōu)功能區(qū)布局方案應(yīng)用于實(shí)際工程的調(diào)整過(guò)程。(4)利用本文提出的理論和方法,在對(duì)西安新筑鐵路現(xiàn)代物流中心規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)其功能區(qū)布局規(guī)劃問(wèn)題進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,驗(yàn)證了本文理論研究的可行性。
[Abstract]:With China's supply side structural reforms continue to deepen and transport the aggravation of the market competition, it is urgent to adjust the railway freight transportation service function, improve the service level. And the railway modern logistics center as an important part of railway transportation network, can be in full with both base station facilities and equipment for processing the flow of goods the use of the railway transport capacity, speed up the turnover of goods transport. The railway company attaches great importance to the planning and construction of railway logistics center, and the introduction of "railway logistics base layout and construction plan for 2015~2017 years in August 2015 (total iron series No. [2015]232). Therefore, rational planning and design of railway modern logistics center to play the advantages of rail transport, has an important significance to improve the operational efficiency of the logistics system. Based on a great number of domestic and foreign related research paper of railway modern logistics center Offer the basis, using the methods of theoretical research and empirical research, launched the study of railway modern logistics center function area layout planning problem from the following four aspects: (1) elaborates the basic concept of the modern railway logistics center and its types were classified and arranged in the analysis of railway modern logistics center the function of ordinary goods category, basic function division and basic business process, puts forward the basic ideas of modern railway logistics center function area layout planning. (2) the basic steps to forecast freight volume of railway modern logistics center are described, describes the rail logistics center attracting scope, and design the regional railway freight volume based on Grey Relational analysis of influence factor selection method and regional railway freight volume forecasting model based on the combination of IOWA operators. In Modern Railway Logistics Grey correlation analysis of influencing factors on primary method of correlation analysis the freight volume forecasting center, and select the strong correlation factors as the influencing factors of the prediction model; secondly using grey prediction GM (1,1) index of influencing factors on the design of annual regional railway freight volume forecasting by grey prediction of GM (1, H), multiple linear regression and BP neural network prediction method to predict the three annual regional design of railway freight volume, and then use the IOWA operator by calculating precision and sorting the three kinds of prediction method are combined to predict the annual regional design of railway freight volume; calculation method of railway modern logistics center bear the regional railway freight volume finally described. (3) of railway modern logistics center function area layout planning problem is discussed and given different function areas Area calculation method, based on the existing functional areas layout planning methods, combining with the modern railway logistics center function area layout planning requirements this paper proposes an improved SLP method of railway modern logistics center function area layout planning. In the functional areas layout planning of railway modern logistics center will be the first railway modern logistics center to field. Yard entrance as well as the impact of Regional Planning outside factors are assumed to be functional areas: second analysis and non logistics correlation between each functional area of logistics and refinement of the quantitative correlation; and then to the logistics center and cargo handling to minimize total cost, the comprehensive correlation coefficient between each functional zone and the largest land and logistics center the highest utilization rate is established for the purpose of railway modern logistics center function area layout multi-objective optimization model, and designed a genetic algorithm to solve the model The basic steps; and finally describes the adjustment process of optimal function area layout scheme applied to the practical engineering. (4) by using the theory and method proposed in this paper, based on the Xi'an new construction planning and design of railway modern logistics center of the field of research, the empirical research on the functional areas layout planning problem, verify the theory the feasibility of the research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.13;F259.2;F532

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