本文選題：客運(yùn)站　切入點(diǎn)：客流量　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：交通運(yùn)輸是國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的大動(dòng)脈，市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展對(duì)勞動(dòng)力和資源的需求及市場(chǎng)化調(diào)配必然導(dǎo)致公路客運(yùn)量的飆升，但目前的客運(yùn)站建設(shè)無(wú)法滿(mǎn)足社會(huì)發(fā)展的需求，造成這一局面的原因固然有運(yùn)力不足的問(wèn)題，但瓶頸仍然是現(xiàn)代化的、綠色環(huán)保的公路客運(yùn)樞紐站建設(shè)不足。伴隨國(guó)家鐵路建設(shè)急行軍的步伐，天津市政府提出通過(guò)天津公路XZ客運(yùn)樞紐站的建設(shè)，帶動(dòng)天津西部城區(qū)發(fā)展，形成城市副中心的設(shè)想。因此對(duì)作為龍頭開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的XZ客運(yùn)站工程進(jìn)行管理學(xué)上的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)就尤為重要了。這有力地促進(jìn)了天津基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)的科學(xué)規(guī)劃，也對(duì)規(guī)范交通運(yùn)輸?shù)暮侠戆l(fā)展提供了技術(shù)支持。 本文在綜合分析當(dāng)前天津市已建成客運(yùn)站的運(yùn)行情況基礎(chǔ)上，以XZ客運(yùn)站建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為具體研究對(duì)象，結(jié)合天津地區(qū)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)特點(diǎn)，，合理運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)與社會(huì)評(píng)價(jià)相關(guān)理論，采用定性與定量相結(jié)合、宏觀(guān)與微觀(guān)相結(jié)合的方法，從客流量預(yù)測(cè)、財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)和社會(huì)評(píng)價(jià)方面對(duì)該項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分析。 利用線(xiàn)性回歸分析的方法，對(duì)天津市未來(lái)10年的公路客流量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。建立數(shù)學(xué)模型，依據(jù)天津市統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒數(shù)據(jù)，推算出XZ客運(yùn)站建成后日平均旅客發(fā)送量，從而推算出該客運(yùn)站建成后的經(jīng)濟(jì)收益，并以此為依據(jù)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析。同時(shí)依據(jù)該項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn)，結(jié)合天津市的自然環(huán)境和社會(huì)環(huán)境，嘗試性地給出該項(xiàng)目的社會(huì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)及方法，研究了對(duì)項(xiàng)目投資進(jìn)行決策的評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和依據(jù)。同時(shí)以點(diǎn)帶面，科學(xué)地識(shí)別出項(xiàng)目的各種影響因素并建立完整的指標(biāo)體系，力爭(zhēng)構(gòu)建出一個(gè)最佳前期經(jīng)濟(jì)效益及社會(huì)效益分析指標(biāo)，希望對(duì)今后天津及東部地區(qū)其他省市公路客運(yùn)站建設(shè)提供有價(jià)值的參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the main artery of national economic development. The demand for labor force and resources and the market-oriented allocation of the market economy will inevitably lead to a surge in the volume of road passenger traffic, but the current passenger station construction cannot meet the needs of social development. The reasons for this situation are, of course, insufficient transportation capacity, but the bottleneck is still modernization and the lack of construction of green and environmentally friendly passenger transport hub stations along with the rapid pace of the national railway construction. The Tianjin Municipal Government has proposed to promote the development of the western urban area of Tianjin through the construction of the XZ passenger terminal station on Tianjin Highway. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out the technical and economic evaluation of the XZ passenger station project, which is a leading development project, on the basis of management. This has greatly promoted the scientific planning of Tianjin's infrastructure construction. It also provides technical support to standardize the reasonable development of transportation. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the current operation of Tianjin passenger station, taking the XZ passenger station construction project as the specific research object and combining the regional economic characteristics of Tianjin, the relevant theories of economic evaluation and social evaluation are used rationally. The project is analyzed from the aspects of passenger flow prediction, financial evaluation and social evaluation by combining qualitative and quantitative methods, macro and micro methods. By using the method of linear regression analysis, the highway passenger flow of Tianjin in the next 10 years is forecasted. The mathematical model is established. According to the data of Tianjin statistical yearbook, the average daily passenger transport capacity of XZ passenger station is calculated after the completion of the station. The economic benefits of the station are calculated, and the economic benefits are analyzed. According to the characteristics of the project, the natural environment and social environment of Tianjin are combined. This paper tries to give the social evaluation index and method of the project, and studies the evaluation criteria and basis for the project investment decision. At the same time, it scientifically identifies the various influencing factors of the project and establishes a complete index system. It is hoped that it will provide valuable reference for the future construction of highway passenger stations in Tianjin and other provinces and cities in eastern China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F285;U492.4

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