本文選題：模糊影響圖　切入點：模糊綜合評價　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：港口建設(shè)工程投資規(guī)模大、周期長,港口建設(shè)環(huán)境具有不確定性,港口建設(shè)工程信息滯后性,港口建設(shè)工程施工復(fù)雜性以及港口建設(shè)工程潛在影響因素呈現(xiàn)多樣化,這些都是港口建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險來源。目前存在的建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評價技術(shù),比如故障樹分析、事件樹分析、蒙特卡洛分析法、PERT分析技術(shù)等,大都對工程項目的某些風(fēng)險因素進行識別和評價,這些方法難以有效地解決港口建設(shè)工程中不同階段的不確定性風(fēng)險因素的評價。因而,如何量化港口建設(shè)工程中產(chǎn)生的不確定或難以度量的風(fēng)險因素,從而提供相應(yīng)的評價方法是港口建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險評價亟待解決的問題。 本文以模糊評價方法為理論依據(jù),借鑒國內(nèi)外港口建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險評價的成功實踐,系統(tǒng)地研究了港口建設(shè)工程全過程風(fēng)險因素的模糊風(fēng)險評價。首先,研究了有關(guān)港口建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險因素評價現(xiàn)狀,將港口建設(shè)工程全過程劃分為決策期、施工期和運營期三個不同階段,并分析了港口建設(shè)工程不同階段的風(fēng)險因素特征。其次,針對決策期風(fēng)險因素的特點,通過對政策風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險、技術(shù)風(fēng)險和管理風(fēng)險因素的分析,對決策期風(fēng)險進行了單因素模糊風(fēng)險評價。進而,利用模糊影響圖方法,建立了施工期風(fēng)險因素的模糊影響圖模型,并提供了風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果分析。接著,基于模糊綜合風(fēng)險評價方法,建立了運營期風(fēng)險因素的多級層次結(jié)構(gòu),對運營期風(fēng)險因素進行模糊綜合評判。最后,提供了廈門港龍�？瓦\站建設(shè)工程風(fēng)險模糊評判的案例研究。 本文研究特色和創(chuàng)新之處主要表現(xiàn)在：①利用模糊評判、模糊影響圖和模糊綜合評判方法,提供了決策期風(fēng)險的單因素模糊風(fēng)險評價、施工期風(fēng)險因素的模糊影響圖評價、運營期風(fēng)險因素的模糊綜合評價；②根據(jù)港口建設(shè)工程的生命周期理論,將港口建設(shè)工程全過程風(fēng)險劃分為決策期、施工期和運營期分別進行風(fēng)險評價；③采用港口建設(shè)工程全過程風(fēng)險模糊評價方法體系,對廈門港龍海客運站建設(shè)工程進行實證研究。本文的研究不僅為港口建設(shè)工程全過程風(fēng)險因素提供了一套可操作的模糊評價方法,而且為其他建設(shè)工程提供了理論分析依據(jù)和實施途徑。
[Abstract]:The investment of port construction project is large, the period is long, the environment of port construction is uncertain, the information of port construction project is lagging behind, the construction complexity of port construction project and the potential influencing factors of port construction project are diversified. These are the risk sources of port construction projects. The existing risk assessment techniques for construction projects, such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, Monte Carlo analysis and Pert analysis, etc. Most of the risk factors of engineering projects are identified and evaluated. These methods are difficult to effectively solve the evaluation of uncertain risk factors in different stages of port construction projects. How to quantify the uncertain or difficult to measure the risk factors in the port construction project, so as to provide the corresponding evaluation method is an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the theory of fuzzy evaluation method and the successful practice of risk assessment of port construction engineering at home and abroad, this paper systematically studies the fuzzy risk assessment of risk factors in the whole process of port construction engineering. This paper studies the present situation of risk factors evaluation of port construction engineering, divides the whole process of port construction engineering into three different stages: decision-making period, construction period and operation period, and analyzes the characteristics of risk factors in different stages of port construction engineering. According to the characteristics of the risk factors in the decision-making period, through the analysis of the policy risk, the market risk, the technical risk and the management risk factor, the single factor fuzzy risk evaluation of the decision-making period risk is carried out. The fuzzy influence graph model of risk factors during construction period is established, and the analysis of risk evaluation results is provided. Then, based on the fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation method, the multilevel hierarchical structure of risk factors in operation period is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk factors in operation period is carried out. Finally, a case study on fuzzy evaluation of risk in construction project of Longhai passenger Station in Xiamen Port is provided. In this paper, the main research features and innovations are as follows: by using fuzzy judgment, fuzzy influence map and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper provides a single factor fuzzy risk evaluation for decision-making period risk, and a fuzzy influence chart evaluation for construction period risk factor. According to the life cycle theory of port construction project, the risk in the whole process of port construction project is divided into decision-making period. Risk assessment during construction period and operation period respectively adopts the fuzzy evaluation method system of risk in the whole process of port construction project. An empirical study on the construction of Longhai passenger Station in Xiamen Port is carried out. The research in this paper not only provides a set of operational fuzzy evaluation methods for the risk factors in the whole process of the port construction project. It also provides theoretical analysis basis and implementation approach for other construction projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F552;F224

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 王東梅;電力智能小區(qū)建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評估指標體系研究[D];華北電力大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號：1678859