本文關(guān)鍵詞： 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警 模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià) 預(yù)警指標(biāo)　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的不斷增強(qiáng),鐵路事業(yè)也得到了飛速的發(fā)展。但目前在我國鐵路建設(shè)中,施工承包企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識(shí)普遍薄弱,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平差,沒有能夠建立起全面、完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理系統(tǒng),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的研究有待加強(qiáng)。因此,作為施工承包方構(gòu)建鐵路工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),對(duì)在鐵路項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過程中可能出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)采取超前或預(yù)先管理的方式,一旦監(jiān)控到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的征兆,及時(shí)采取校正措施并發(fā)出預(yù)警信號(hào),將損失降低到最低程度就顯得尤為重要。 本文首先研究了鐵路工程項(xiàng)目及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn),較深入地識(shí)別分析了該項(xiàng)目在實(shí)施過程中可能遇到和潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,這是進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的前提；采用了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分解結(jié)構(gòu)將影響鐵路工程施工承包項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素按層次關(guān)系進(jìn)行分層、分類。 其次,探討研究了鐵路工程施工承包項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建思路和方法,包括對(duì)該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的概念、特點(diǎn)、功能、框架體系以及其運(yùn)行機(jī)理進(jìn)行了研究。本文提出該系統(tǒng)的框架體系由風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警信息子系統(tǒng)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別子系統(tǒng)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)子系統(tǒng)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警判別子系統(tǒng)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警對(duì)策子系統(tǒng)這五個(gè)方面組成。在建立的鐵路工程施工承包項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用基于AHP的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法建立了該系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型,評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況,并對(duì)不同的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果給出不同的預(yù)警信號(hào)。 最后,為了驗(yàn)證建立的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型實(shí)用性、合理性,將模型運(yùn)用到龍廈鐵路象山隧道這一標(biāo)段進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)估。研究了針對(duì)鐵路工程施工承包風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的幾種常用防控策略,并提出了對(duì)應(yīng)各等級(jí)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)預(yù)案和主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的應(yīng)對(duì)措施以及動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our national economy and the increasing of economic strength, the railway industry has also been developing rapidly. However, in the railway construction of our country, the risk consciousness of construction contracting enterprises is generally weak and the level of risk management is poor. The research on risk management needs to be strengthened. Therefore, as a construction contractor, a risk early warning system for railway projects can be constructed. In the process of railway project implementation, it is very important to adopt the way of leading or managing the risk in advance or in advance. Once the warning of the risk is monitored and corrected in time and the warning signal is issued, it is very important to reduce the loss to the lowest degree. Firstly, this paper studies the characteristics of railway project and its risk, and identifies and analyzes the possible and potential risk factors in the implementation of the project, which is the premise of risk early warning. Risk decomposition structure is adopted to stratify and classify the risk factors that affect railway construction contracting projects according to the hierarchical relationship. Secondly, the paper discusses the construction ideas and methods of the risk early warning system of the railway construction contract project, including the concept, characteristics and functions of the risk warning system. This paper puts forward that the framework system of the system is composed of risk early warning information subsystem, risk identification subsystem, risk evaluation subsystem, and so on. On the basis of the risk warning index system of railway construction contract project, the risk early-warning subsystem and the risk early-warning countermeasure subsystem are established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to establish the risk early warning model of the system. The risk situation of the project is evaluated, and different early warning signals are given for different evaluation results. Finally, in order to verify the practicability and rationality of the established risk warning model, the model is applied to the section of Xiangshan Tunnel of Longxia Railway for comprehensive evaluation. Several common prevention and control strategies for railway construction contract risk are studied. At the same time, the coping plan and main risk factors and dynamic risk control measures of each grade project risk are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：U215.1;F532

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本文編號(hào)：1531791