本文關鍵詞：基于風險分析的公路BT項目回購價定價方法研究　出處：《重慶交通大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 公路BT項目 回購價 風險決策 投資回報 蒙特卡羅模擬

【摘要】：我國對公路項目等基礎設施建設投入持續(xù)增長，但有限的政府資金已成為制約基礎設施建設的“瓶頸”。近年來，在公路項目建設中廣泛采用的BT模式在吸引社會資金參與公路項目建設、緩解政府的資金壓力和不斷提高路網(wǎng)水平和服務功能上發(fā)揮了重要作用。在公路項目BT投融資模式中，確定回購價是最核心的內(nèi)容之一。公路BT項目由于其投資金額大，工程技術復雜，參與主體關系復雜，建設和回購周期長等大量不確定因素影響，使BT回購價確定具有風險性。本文從公路BT項目回購價受各種不確定風險因素影響角度，研究公路BT項目回購價定價問題，對于完善公路BT項目回購價定價機制、進而完善BT項目定價理論和促進公路建設投融資持續(xù)發(fā)展，都具有主要現(xiàn)實意義和理論價值。 本文是從投資者的角度分析研究公路BT項目回購價定價問題，研究了現(xiàn)有公路BT項目回購定價相關問題和不足，提出了建立基于風險分析的回購價模型的必要性。首先研究了公路BT模式和回購價定價的不確定風險特征，研究了公路BT模式回購價的組成和影響機理。然后深入研究了影響公路BT項目回購價的風險因素和影響關系，建立了風險因素集；在此基礎上，建立了模糊風險遞階辨識模型。其次根據(jù)公路BT模式回購價的特點，構造了風險影響關系圖，建立了具體的公路BT回購價風險決策模型，并對模型中各風險變量的特征和取值定價方法，與現(xiàn)行的定價模型進行對比研究；本論文從回購成本的角度出發(fā)，采用蒙特卡羅模擬的方法，得到回購成本的波動范圍及概率分布曲線，結(jié)合該曲線投資者可進行回購價風險決策決策，該成果為同時為政府和公路BT項目投資人協(xié)商回購價，提供了合理科學的依據(jù)。最后，通過建立VaR模型確定公路BT項目的投資回報的風險收益，，為BT項目投資人提供了對公路BT項目投資效率評價參考和決策判據(jù)。 本文基于風險分析建立的回購價定價模型在回購價定價方法上是一種新的探索，完善和豐富了公路BT項目回購價定價理論，同時為投資者參與BT融資項目作出合理的風險決策和保障自身的利益提供了借鑒。
[Abstract]:China's highway infrastructure construction projects such as investment continues to grow, but the limited government funds has become the bottleneck of the infrastructure construction of the "bottleneck". In recent years, widely used in highway construction projects of BT pattern to attract social capital to participate in the highway project construction, alleviate the government's financial pressure and continuously improve the network level and service function played an important role. In the mode of investment and financing of highway project in BT, determine the repurchase price is one of the core content. The highway BT project because of its large amount of investment, construction technology is complex, involved in the main complex relationship, construction and repurchase period is long and a lot of uncertain factors, which determine the risk of repurchase price of BT this article from the highway BT project. The repurchase price is affected by many uncertain factors affecting the risk point of view, research of highway BT project repurchase pricing problem, to improve the repurchase price of the pricing mechanism for highway BT project, It is of great practical significance and theoretical value to further improve the BT project pricing theory and promote the sustainable development of highway construction investment and financing.
This paper is the analysis of highway BT project repurchase pricing problem from the perspective of investors, on the problems related to the repurchase pricing of existing highway BT project and the insufficiency, puts forward the necessity of establishing the repurchase price model based on the risk analysis. Firstly studies the uncertain risk characteristics of highway BT model and the repurchase price pricing mechanism, composition and influence study on the highway BT model. The repurchase price risk factors and effect relationship and in-depth study of the impact of highway BT project repurchase price, established risk factors set; on this basis, a hierarchical fuzzy risk identification model. Secondly according to the characteristics of highway repurchase price of BT mode, constructs the risk influence diagram, establish highway BT repurchase price risk decision model of concrete, and the risk variables in the model characteristics and value pricing method, compared with the current pricing model; this paper from the back The purchase cost perspective, by using the method of Monte Carlo simulation, get the fluctuation range of return cost and probability distribution curve, the curve can be combined with investors repurchase price risk decision-making, the results at the same time as the government and highway BT project investor negotiation repurchase price, provide a reasonable scientific basis. Finally, determine the highway BT project return on investment through the establishment of VaR model for BT project risk return, investors provided for highway BT project investment efficiency evaluation reference and decision criterion.
The repurchase pricing model is established to analyze the risk based on the repurchase price pricing method is a new exploration, improve and enrich the highway BT project repurchase pricing theory, and safeguard their own interests and provide reference for investors to participate in the BT project financing risk decision made reasonable.

【學位授予單位】：重慶交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F542;F285

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