本文選題：國際資本流動(dòng) + 商業(yè)銀行　； 參考：《鄭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：國際資本流動(dòng)在危機(jī)后出現(xiàn)逐漸恢復(fù)增長的趨勢,并且越來越多的國際資本流入發(fā)展中國家。2012年外商直接投資流入發(fā)展中國家第一次超過發(fā)達(dá)國家。中國作為新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體,由于良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展前景和匯率長期升值的預(yù)期,吸引了大量國際資本流入,但我國國際資本流入總量波動(dòng)較大。隨著我國銀行業(yè)對外開放步伐的逐步加快,國際資本進(jìn)出我國會(huì)更加活躍。銀行在一國金融體系中居于重要地位,銀行業(yè)的穩(wěn)定關(guān)系著整個(gè)金融經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定。因此,積極研究國際資本流動(dòng)和銀行穩(wěn)定性之間的關(guān)系,對于確保銀行體系的穩(wěn)定、防范和化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 國際資本流動(dòng)對商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性的影響有直接影響,間接影響和繼發(fā)性影響。直接影響包括直接投資、間接投資、外幣存款變動(dòng)和外資銀行進(jìn)入對銀行穩(wěn)定性的影響。間接影響包括利率、匯率和貨幣供給量變動(dòng)對銀行穩(wěn)定性的影響。繼發(fā)性影響指不同的傳染路徑對銀行穩(wěn)定性的影響。中國主要表現(xiàn)為直接影響和間接影響,由于我國商業(yè)銀行的退出機(jī)制尚不健全,某個(gè)銀行一旦發(fā)生危機(jī),國家政府部門會(huì)積極援助,國際資本流動(dòng)的繼發(fā)影響文章將不再研究。 銀行穩(wěn)定性的測算指標(biāo)和方法有很多,國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者采取了不同方法來測算銀行的穩(wěn)定性。在總結(jié)以往研究的基礎(chǔ)上,我選取了宏觀、金融和銀行微觀三大類指標(biāo)來檢測近20年來我國銀行的穩(wěn)定性狀況。從銀行穩(wěn)定性指數(shù)曲線走勢圖可以看出,1993年至2012年我國商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性指數(shù)有波動(dòng)下降的趨勢,這說明銀行業(yè)加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管和整頓成效顯現(xiàn),商業(yè)銀行的穩(wěn)定性增強(qiáng)。之后,選取6個(gè)變量為解釋變量,以銀行穩(wěn)定性綜合指數(shù)為被解釋變量,通過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),分析哪些國際資本流動(dòng)變量影響銀行穩(wěn)定性以及影響程度的大小。選取外商直接投資增長率、海外證券投資增長率、中長期外債增長率和短期外債增長率4個(gè)指標(biāo)反映國際資本流動(dòng)對商業(yè)銀行的直接影響。選取M2與外匯儲(chǔ)備的比例和匯率變動(dòng)率2個(gè)指標(biāo)反映國際資本流動(dòng)對商業(yè)銀行的間接影響。基于我國實(shí)際,國際資本流動(dòng)的繼發(fā)影響文章將不再研究。分析得出,匯率變動(dòng)率、M2占外匯儲(chǔ)備比率、海外證券投資增長率、短期外債增長率與銀行穩(wěn)定性綜合指數(shù)呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,中長期外債增長率、外商直接投資增長率與銀行穩(wěn)定性綜合指數(shù)呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。匯率變動(dòng)率、海外證券投資增長率、M2占外匯儲(chǔ)備比率和短期外債增長率對銀行穩(wěn)定性影響較小,外商直接投資增長率和短期外債增長率對我國商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定性的影響較為顯著。 在資本賬戶自由化發(fā)展趨勢下,中國應(yīng)從對國際資本實(shí)施分類管理、建立存款保險(xiǎn)制度、建立早期監(jiān)測預(yù)警體系、加強(qiáng)對銀行的監(jiān)管、推動(dòng)金融工具多樣化和加強(qiáng)銀行內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制等方面增強(qiáng)銀行穩(wěn)定性。
[Abstract]:The trend of international capital flow has been gradually restored after the crisis, and more and more international capital flows into developing countries in developing countries for the first time over developed countries in.2012. As emerging economies, China has attracted a great deal due to the good prospect of economic development and the long-term appreciation of the exchange rate. The volume of international capital inflows, but the total amount of international capital inflows in China fluctuates greatly. With the gradual acceleration of China's banking opening to the outside world, the import and export of international capital is more active. The bank is in an important position in the financial system of a country. The stability of the banking industry is related to the stability of the whole financial economy. Therefore, the international capital is actively studied. The relationship between liquidity and bank stability is of great theoretical and practical significance to ensure the stability of the banking system, to prevent and dissolve financial risks and to promote the healthy development of the economy.
The impact of international capital flows on the stability of commercial banks has direct, indirect and secondary effects. It directly affects the impact of direct investment, indirect investment, changes in foreign currency deposits and the entry of foreign banks on the stability of banks. The indirect impact on the stability of banks, including interest rates, exchange rates and changes in the supply of goods, is secondary. The effect of sexual impact refers to the impact of different routes of infection on bank stability. China's main performance is the direct and indirect effects. As the exit mechanism of the commercial banks in China is not yet sound, the state government departments will be actively assisted, and the secondary impact of international capital flows will no longer be studied.
There are many calculation indexes and methods of bank stability. Experts and scholars at home and abroad have taken different methods to measure the stability of banks. On the basis of summarizing the previous research, I have selected three major categories of macro, financial and banking microscopical indicators to detect the stability of China's banks in the last 20 years. It can be seen that the stability index of commercial banks in China from 1993 to 2012 has a trend of fluctuation, which indicates that the banking industry has strengthened supervision and consolidation effect, and the stability of commercial banks is enhanced. After that, 6 variables are selected as explanatory variables and the bank stability comprehensive index is interpreted as the explanatory variable, and through unit root test, cointegration analysis and lattice. Lan Jie causality test, which analyzes which international capital flow variables affect bank stability and the size of its impact. The direct impact of international capital flows on commercial banks is reflected by 4 indicators: the growth rate of foreign direct investment, the growth rate of overseas securities investment, the growth rate of medium and long term foreign debt and the growth rate of short-term external debt. The proportion of foreign exchange reserves and the rate of exchange rate change 2 indicators reflect the indirect impact of international capital flows on commercial banks. Based on China's reality, the secondary impact of international capital flows will no longer be studied. Analysis shows that the rate of exchange rate, M2 account for foreign exchange reserve ratio, the growth rate of overseas securities investment, short-term external debt growth rate and the stability of the bank. There is a negative correlation between the growth rate of foreign direct investment and the comprehensive index of bank stability. The rate of exchange rate, the growth rate of foreign securities investment, the ratio of M2 to the foreign exchange reserve ratio and the growth rate of short-term foreign debt have little effect on the stability of the bank, the growth rate of foreign direct investment and the growth of short-term foreign debt. The rate has a significant impact on the stability of China's commercial banks.
Under the trend of capital account liberalization, China should carry out classified management of international capital, establish deposit insurance system, establish early monitoring and early warning system, strengthen the supervision of banks, promote the diversification of financial instruments and strengthen bank internal risk control to enhance the stability of banking.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.33;F831.5

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