本文選題：城投債 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)　； 參考：《財(cái)政研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：本文研究地方政府城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)問(wèn)題。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示:(1)隨著時(shí)間的推移,金融市場(chǎng)并非認(rèn)同中央政府對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)負(fù)有無(wú)限責(zé)任的看法。雖然2009-2015年中國(guó)城投債整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)未表現(xiàn)出明顯上升,但不同地方政府的城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)逐步發(fā)生了差異化。(2)在城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)的影響因素中,地方債務(wù)率越高、財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)率越低、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資占比越高、房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資占比和房?jī)r(jià)越低,城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)越高。GDP增長(zhǎng)率上升會(huì)提高省級(jí)城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià),但是會(huì)降低市級(jí)城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。這些因素的影響到2012年以后才逐步體現(xiàn)出來(lái),而在之前的年份沒(méi)有影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。(3)城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)與城投公司流動(dòng)性負(fù)相關(guān),說(shuō)明城投公司本質(zhì)上并非單純市場(chǎng)意義下的公司,而體現(xiàn)了其背后地方政府的信用和債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the risk premium of local government city investment debt. Empirical results show that over time, financial markets do not agree with the central government's view of unlimited responsibility for local government debt. Although the overall risk premium of Chinatown bond investment did not show a significant increase in 2009-2015, but the risk premium of different local governments gradually changed. (2) among the factors affecting the risk premium of urban investment debt, the higher the local debt rate, the higher the local debt rate. The lower the growth rate of fiscal revenue, the higher the proportion of infrastructure investment, the lower the investment in real estate development and the lower the housing price, the higher the risk premium of city investment and debt. The higher the growth rate of GDP is, the higher the risk premium of investment in debt in provincial cities will be. But it will reduce the risk premium on city debt. The impact of these factors was gradually reflected after 2012, but in the previous year, there was no risk premium.) the risk premium of city investment debt was negatively correlated with the liquidity of the city investment company, indicating that the city investment company is not essentially a company in the sense of market. It reflects the credit and debt risk of the local government.
【作者單位】： 清華大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.5

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