本文選題：中國(guó)平安 + 股東權(quán)益價(jià)值評(píng)估�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著改革的深入,越來(lái)越多的企業(yè)開(kāi)始兼并重組,走上了多元化經(jīng)營(yíng)之路,并且開(kāi)始傾向于集團(tuán)整體上市。本文主要針對(duì)多元化金融服務(wù)集團(tuán)企業(yè)——中國(guó)平安進(jìn)行股東權(quán)益價(jià)值評(píng)估研究,以期對(duì)投資者進(jìn)行價(jià)值投資、上市公司市值管理以及對(duì)其他多元化經(jīng)營(yíng)集團(tuán)企業(yè)的估值研究具有一定的借鑒意義。目前針對(duì)多元化企業(yè)的評(píng)估研究主要是采用分部估值,即針對(duì)不同業(yè)務(wù)單元進(jìn)行分別評(píng)估,然后加總作為多元化企業(yè)的股東權(quán)益價(jià)值。通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)平安這類(lèi)多元化金融服務(wù)集團(tuán)企業(yè)進(jìn)行深入研究,認(rèn)為分部估值存在著諸多爭(zhēng)議:信息的可得性制約著分部估值能否順利實(shí)施;同時(shí),分部估值也忽略了整體性資產(chǎn)對(duì)不同子公司之間的協(xié)同價(jià)值、大額的集中性成本、持股結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜及關(guān)聯(lián)內(nèi)部交易等問(wèn)題,從而影響評(píng)估結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性。所以,本文提出針對(duì)諸如中國(guó)平安這類(lèi)多元化金融服務(wù)集團(tuán)企業(yè),應(yīng)該把其看成一個(gè)聚合的整體,基于聚合估值的理念,直接采用FCFE模型對(duì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行股東權(quán)益價(jià)值評(píng)估,然后用P/B估值模型作為輔助驗(yàn)證。同時(shí),針對(duì)中國(guó)平安業(yè)務(wù)多元化和A股及H股市場(chǎng)兩地上市的特點(diǎn),對(duì)其可比公司選取的特殊性進(jìn)行了深入分析,提出采用各業(yè)務(wù)單元所處行業(yè)貝塔系數(shù)來(lái)取代單個(gè)公司的回歸貝塔,然后根據(jù)業(yè)務(wù)權(quán)重加權(quán)平均分別求得中國(guó)平安在A股市場(chǎng)和H股市場(chǎng)的貝塔值。除此之外,對(duì)無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性”進(jìn)行了分析,提出了基于國(guó)債利率下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及國(guó)家信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)的無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率。本文在聚合估值的理念下,基于FCFE模型對(duì)中國(guó)平安在A股及H股市場(chǎng)分別進(jìn)行了股東權(quán)益價(jià)值評(píng)估,基于P/B估值模型同樣給出了評(píng)估價(jià)值,對(duì)其評(píng)估結(jié)果進(jìn)行了深入分析,驗(yàn)證了估值的合理性,并針對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外投資者進(jìn)行投資決策、管理者進(jìn)行經(jīng)營(yíng)管理決策以及評(píng)估師進(jìn)行多元化企業(yè)評(píng)估方法的選擇給出了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the reform, more and more enterprises begin to merge and reorganize, take the road of diversified management, and begin to tend to the group as a whole.This article mainly aims at the diversified financial services group enterprise-China Ping an to carry on the shareholder equity value appraisal research, in order to carry on the value investment to the investor,Market value management of listed companies and valuation of other diversified groups have some reference significance.At present, the research on the evaluation of diversified enterprises is mainly based on the divisional valuation, that is, to evaluate the different business units separately, and then add up the value of shareholders' rights and interests as a diversified enterprise.Through the in-depth study of the diversified financial services group enterprises such as Ping an of China, it is concluded that there are many controversies in the division valuation: the availability of information restricts the smooth implementation of the division valuation; at the same time,Division valuation also ignores the synergetic value of global assets to different subsidiaries, the large centralized cost, the complexity of shareholding structure and related party internal transactions, which affects the accuracy of the evaluation results.Therefore, this paper puts forward that the diversified financial services group enterprises such as Ping an of China should be regarded as an integrated whole. Based on the concept of aggregate valuation, the FCFE model is directly used to evaluate the equity value of shareholders.Then the P-P-B valuation model is used as the auxiliary verification.At the same time, in view of the characteristics of China Ping an business diversification and the dual listing of A-share and H-share markets, the particularity of the selection of comparable companies is deeply analyzed.The Beta coefficient of each business unit is proposed to replace the return beta of a single company, and then the beta value of China Ping an in A share market and H share market is obtained according to the weighted average of business weight.In addition, the "risk" of risk-free interest rate is analyzed, and the risk-free interest rate based on the downward risk of national debt interest rate and the premium of national credit risk is put forward.Based on the idea of aggregate valuation, this paper evaluates the shareholder's equity value of China Ping an in A-share and H-share markets based on FCFE model, and gives the evaluation value based on the P / B valuation model, and analyzes the evaluation results deeply.The rationality of valuation is verified, and some suggestions are given for investors at home and abroad to make investment decisions, managers for management decisions and appraisers for the selection of diversified enterprise evaluation methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F842.3;F832.51;F840.4

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