本文選題：政策市　切入點：量價關系　出處：《吉林大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國股票市場的不斷發(fā)展壯大，對國民經濟產生了深遠的影響。股票價格的波動性，無論是對投資者關于風險和收益的系統(tǒng)分析、市場監(jiān)管者的有效監(jiān)控、還是對于作為上市公司股東收益最大化的實現(xiàn)，都有著極其深遠的意義。根據股市本身的波動，來分析其深層次的原因，可以為廣大投資者投資、上市公司的日常生產經營活動提供重要的參考依據。 本文側重研究的是我國的股票市場與宏觀經濟因素、交易行為因素、信息披露因素之間的相互影響；首先對上述四個因素之間的相互作用進行分析，在此基礎上提出了應對股票價格波動的主要策略，以及對未來的展望，并且有針對性的提出了一些切實可行的政策和建議。 從邏輯結構上看，本文主要可以分為三部分： 第一部分主要分析了宏觀經濟因素，及其對我國的股票市場產生影響的作用機制；主要包括：宏觀經濟因素、宏觀政策因素和市場因素對我國股票市場產生的影響； 第二部分主要分析了交易行為因素，及其對我國股票市場產生影響的作用機制。主要包括：機構投資者與中小投資者的投資行為特征對我國股票市場產生的影響； 第三部分主要分析了信息披露因素，及其對我國股票市場產生影響的作用機制。主要包括：股票市場信息與內幕交易對我國股票市場波動產生的影響； 在本文的研究過程中，主要使用了理論和實證相結合的分析方法，在研究的過程中還使用了計量經濟學的相關理論和知識；在進行了嚴謹的研究之后，本文得到的結論總結如下： 1、隨著股票市場規(guī)模、結構和運行機制的不斷優(yōu)化、擴大和完善，宏觀政策與宏觀經濟將會受到股票市場愈發(fā)深刻的影響。到那時，政府就將股票價格指數納入我國宏觀經濟政策的輔助監(jiān)測指標中來，并依據適度、合理的標準對股票價格進行調控。 2、我國股票市場的中小投資者，不僅存在自我催眠，，感情用事，啟發(fā)簡化等行為方面的偏差，還存在對政府管理當局高度不信任，盲從于專家，對市場存在過渡性恐慌的心里預期等具有中國特色的認知上的偏差。與此同時，我國股票市場的中小投資者在心理上，存在著盲目自信與極度樂觀的誤區(qū)，他們在投資活動中，過分熱衷于打探有關股票的內幕消息，不重視上市公司的財務報表和表面信息，而且，在對信息進行快速篩選的時，他們總是熱衷于那些可以提高自我投資信心的信息，卻對負面消息采取視而不見的態(tài)度。 3、在研究我國股票市場波動的影響因素的過程中，主要通過研究了信息的披露和傳到機制，得出如下結論：對于我國的股票市場來說，無論是在宏觀上看，還是在微觀上看，它的信息都存在提前泄露的可能性，這就使得信息的披露和傳到機制存在非常嚴重的問題。由于公共信息不斷變得私有化，這就導致在股票市場產生了很多的內幕交易，這些行為的存在使得我國的股票市場的價格被嚴重的扭曲了，繼而使股票市場出現(xiàn)異常的波動。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's stock market, had a profound impact on the national economy. The volatility of stock price, both the analysis of investor system on the risks and benefits of effective monitoring of market regulators, or to achieve profit maximization as the shareholders of listed companies, has a very far-reaching significance. According to the fluctuation of the stock market itself, to analyze the deep-seated reasons, for the majority of investors, provide the important reference for the daily production and business activities of listed companies.
This paper focuses on the research of our country's stock market and macroeconomic factors, trading behavior factors, the mutual influence between information disclosure factors; the interaction between these four factors are analyzed, puts forward the main strategies to deal with the volatility of the stock price and the outlook for the future, and targeted put forward some feasible policies and suggestions.
From the logical structure, this paper can be divided into three parts:
The first part mainly analyzes the macroeconomic factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market, including macroeconomic factors, macro policy factors and market factors, and the impact on China's stock market.
The second part mainly analyzes the trading behavior factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market. It includes: the impact of institutional investors and small investors' investment behavior on China's stock market.
The third part mainly analyzes the information disclosure factors and the mechanism of their impact on China's stock market, including: the influence of stock market information and insider trading on China's stock market volatility.
In the course of this study, we mainly use the theory and empirical analysis method. In the process of research, we also use econometrics theory and knowledge. After rigorous research, the conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:
1, with the stock market scale, optimize the structure and operation mechanism, expand and improve the macro policy and macro economy, will have more profound impact on the stock market. At that time, the government will be included in the stock price index, auxiliary monitoring indicators of China's macro economic policy to moderate and according to the stock price, regulation reasonable standard.
2, China's stock market investors, not only the existence of self hypnosis, emotional and other deviant behavior the simplified heuristic are highly, distrust of the government authorities, experts on the market blindly, there is panic expectation with transitional China characteristics of cognitive bias. At the same time, China's stock market the medium and small investors in the psychology, there are blind confidence and extremely optimistic misunderstanding, they in investment activities, insider news too keen to inquire about the stock, do not pay attention to the listed company's financial statements and surface information, and, in the rapid screening of information, they are always keen to those who can improve their investment the confidence of the information, but to turn a blind eye to negative news.
3, the influence factors in the process of China's stock market volatility, mainly through the research of information disclosure and spread mechanism, draws the following conclusion: for China's stock market, both in the macro perspective, or in the micro perspective, it has provided the possibility of information leak before this. The information disclosure and transmission mechanism, there are very serious problems. As the public information becomes increasingly privatized, it is causing a lot of insider trading in the stock market, the existence of these behavior makes our country's stock market prices has been seriously distorted, and the abnormal volatility of stock market.

【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 鄒楊,林國春;當前股票市場中的政府干預——一種制度經濟學解說[J];財經問題研究;1997年06期

2 張衛(wèi)國,馬文霞,任九泉;中國股價指數與宏觀影響因素的協(xié)整關系研究[J];當代經濟科學;2002年06期

3 鄭江淮,袁國良,胡志乾;中國轉型期股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長關系的實證研究[J];管理世界;2000年06期

4 丁君風,施國慶;貨幣信用與中國股票市場資金供給相關性研究[J];河海大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2004年01期

5 鄒小們;我國證券市場回報率過度反應的實證分析[J];經濟科學;2003年04期

6 談儒勇;中國金融發(fā)展和經濟增長關系的實證研究[J];經濟研究;1999年10期

7 肖軍,徐信忠;中國股市價值反轉投資策略有效性實證研究[J];經濟研究;2004年03期

8 張人驥,朱平方,王懷芳;上海證券市場過度反應的實證檢驗[J];經濟研究;1998年05期

9 沈藝峰,吳世農;我國證券市場過度反應了嗎?[J];經濟研究;1999年02期

10 徐麗娟;;我國股權分置改革研究觀點綜述[J];經濟縱橫;2005年11期

本文編號：1690683