本文選題：迎合理論　切入點(diǎn)：股利溢價(jià)　出處：《廈門大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：股利發(fā)放的動(dòng)機(jī)一直是學(xué)術(shù)界爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn)之一。本文選取滬深兩市的A股股票為樣本對(duì)股利發(fā)放進(jìn)行研究,并著重于檢驗(yàn)在中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)中的股利發(fā)放中是否存在迎合行為。本文將著重考慮兩種股利發(fā)放形式,一種是現(xiàn)金股利方式,另一種是送轉(zhuǎn)增股即股票股利。本文選取了5年作為樣本期間,通過(guò)進(jìn)行滾動(dòng)回歸來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的股利支付概率,并用于進(jìn)一步對(duì)迎合理論進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),通過(guò)實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)在現(xiàn)金股利發(fā)放中并不存在迎合行為。本文在考慮股票股利發(fā)放動(dòng)機(jī)時(shí),從股利迎合和股價(jià)迎合兩個(gè)角度進(jìn)行考察,發(fā)現(xiàn)從股利發(fā)放角度出發(fā)時(shí)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)并不存在迎合行為,從投資者存在的非理性的低價(jià)股偏好出發(fā),通過(guò)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)公司一般傾向于迎合投資者這種低價(jià)股偏好。此外,本文在考察周期因子的同時(shí),首次將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子引入中國(guó)股市股利發(fā)放的實(shí)證研究中,通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),加入了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子、周期因子特征變量之后,低股價(jià)迎合理論仍然可以成立。本文從理論方面進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為可能存在的原因是在中國(guó)獨(dú)特的環(huán)境中,這兩項(xiàng)指標(biāo)的衡量不一定很精準(zhǔn),首先是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子的計(jì)算涉及到CAPM模型是否適用于中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)；其次就是周期因子因?yàn)槲覈?guó)公司普遍成立較晚而存在一定的區(qū)分度不高的問(wèn)題。本文通過(guò)迎合理論的檢驗(yàn),提出導(dǎo)致中國(guó)迎合現(xiàn)狀的主要原因有以下兩方面：一是我國(guó)投資者普遍不具備長(zhǎng)期投資意識(shí),對(duì)股利重視程度不足,并熱衷短期投資,具有非理性的價(jià)格幻覺(jué)偏好；二是我國(guó)公司法人治理結(jié)構(gòu)不完善,導(dǎo)致持有流通股的中小投資者的股利偏好沒(méi)有得到合理滿足。
[Abstract]:The motivation of dividend payment has always been one of the focal points in academic circles. This paper selects A-share stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as samples to study dividend payment. This paper will focus on the consideration of two forms of dividend payment, one is cash dividend, and the other is cash dividend. The other is the stock dividend. This paper selects 5 years as the sample period to predict the future dividend payout probability through rolling regression, and further tests the pandering theory. Through the empirical study, we find that there is no pandering behavior in cash dividend payment. When considering the motivation of stock dividend payment, this paper investigates from two angles of dividend pandering and stock price pandering. It is found that there is no pandering behavior in China's stock market from the perspective of dividend distribution. Based on the irrational low price stock preference of investors, it is found that companies generally tend to cater to investors' low price stock preference through empirical tests. At the same time, this paper introduces the risk factor into the empirical study of dividend distribution in Chinese stock market for the first time. It is found that the risk factor and the characteristic variable of the periodic factor are added to the empirical study. The theory of low stock price pandering can still be established. This paper makes a theoretical analysis and thinks that the possible reason is that in the unique environment of China, the measurement of these two indicators is not necessarily accurate. First, the calculation of the risk factor involves whether the CAPM model is applicable to the Chinese stock market, and the second is the problem that the periodic factor has a certain degree of differentiation because of the late establishment of Chinese companies. The main reasons for China to cater to the current situation are as follows: first, Chinese investors generally do not have long-term investment awareness, pay less attention to dividends, and are keen on short-term investment, with irrational price illusion preference; Second, the corporate governance structure of our country is not perfect, which leads to the lack of reasonable satisfaction of dividend preference of small and medium-sized investors who hold tradable shares.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51

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