本文關(guān)鍵詞： 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 公司債券 財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù) 財(cái)務(wù)比率 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)歷了不到十年的快速發(fā)展之后，，我國公司債券市場于2014年3月出現(xiàn)了首例實(shí)質(zhì)性違約事件。事件的發(fā)生并不是偶然的，其背后蘊(yùn)藏著制度、市場、監(jiān)管者、發(fā)債人、投資者、中介機(jī)構(gòu)等等各方的問題是發(fā)人深思的�？v觀我國近些年金融市場，各種違約事件發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和概率都在增加，例如信貸違約、信托違約頻頻映入人們的眼簾。遠(yuǎn)離這類投資，當(dāng)然可以完全避免風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；然而，面對相對較高的回報(bào)，有很多人理性不足，鋌而走險(xiǎn)，在缺乏對債券市場、法律法規(guī)、與信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有關(guān)信息了解的情況下，沒有完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償?shù)臋C(jī)制下，完全承擔(dān)了信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致的全部損失。 本文利用公開的財(cái)務(wù)信息，從財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和財(cái)務(wù)比率中發(fā)現(xiàn)公司在盈利、經(jīng)營、償債能力的變化，對財(cái)務(wù)狀況進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的分析并且對分析對象的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出判斷，根據(jù)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對公司債券的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定性的識別，從而做出投資決策。雖然財(cái)務(wù)信息、財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和財(cái)務(wù)比率在金融領(lǐng)域內(nèi)常常受到人們的詬病，例如容易造假，受到粉飾等等，但基于市場與學(xué)術(shù)的現(xiàn)狀，目前對與公司債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別最簡單和最有效地方式還是要使用財(cái)務(wù)信息。本文避免了使用受諸多條件限制的復(fù)雜模型及其關(guān)于模型實(shí)用性的問題，而基于財(cái)務(wù)信息的優(yōu)勢，其應(yīng)用更容易被投資者接受，因?yàn)槟Ｐ偷慕⑴c使用通常受到專業(yè)人士的追捧�？紤]到時間、成本與效果，財(cái)務(wù)信息應(yīng)作為首選。而且從實(shí)際的應(yīng)用效果來看，可以對公司債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做到識別。雖然對公司債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別上，無法給出一個準(zhǔn)確的量化的指標(biāo)，但通過判斷，投資者可以根據(jù)自身的情況做出投資決策。
[Abstract]:After less than a decade of rapid development, China's corporate bond market in March 2014 appeared the first substantive default event. The incident is not accidental, behind which there are institutions, markets, regulators, debt issuers. The problems of investors, intermediaries and other parties are thought-provoking. Looking at the financial markets in China in recent years, the risks and probability of various default events are increasing, such as credit default. Trust defaults frequently catch people's eyes. Far from such investments, of course, risks can be completely avoided; however, in the face of relatively high returns, there are many people who are irrational and take risks in the absence of laws and regulations on the bond market. Under the condition of knowing the information about credit risk and without perfect mechanism of risk compensation, it bears all the losses caused by credit risk. This paper makes use of the public financial information to find the change of the company's profitability, operation and solvency from the financial data and the financial ratio, and makes a detailed analysis of the financial situation and makes a judgment on the financial risk of the analyzed object. The credit risk of corporate bonds is identified qualitatively based on financial risks to make investment decisions. Although financial information, financial data and financial ratios are often criticized in the financial world, such as easy fraud, Be whitewashed and so on, but based on market and academic status quo, At present, the simplest and most effective way to identify the credit risk of corporate bonds is to use financial information. Based on the advantages of financial information, its application is more easily accepted by investors, because the establishment and use of models are often sought after by professionals. Financial information should be the first choice. And from the practical application effect, we can identify the corporate bond credit risk. Although the identification of corporate bond credit risk can not give an accurate quantitative index, but through judgment, Investors can make investment decisions according to their own circumstances.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

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