本文關鍵詞：中國私募股權投資估值不確定性問題的研究　出處：《廈門大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 私募股權投資 黑箱理論 估值不確定

【摘要】：本文針對私募股權投資過程估值不確定問題展開研究。考慮到私募股權投資不愿披露信息的特性,筆者在研究方法上引入控制論分析黑箱時所用黑箱理論的原理,將私募股權估值作為一個估值黑箱來研究估值不確定性問題。 在分析了私募股權投資整個投資循環(huán)的基礎上,全文基于創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司歷史數(shù)據,運用因素分析法、統(tǒng)計分析法、例證法等方法,圍繞投資前與退出前兩個環(huán)節(jié)對估值不確定性機理展開一系列研究。研究得出：1、投資前的估值不確定性是因現(xiàn)有的估值方案中沒把博弈雙方完整納入估值對象,PE的缺失導致估值黑箱不完整、不穩(wěn)定引起的。事實上,PE的無形資產對獲得投資后的目標企業(yè)這個估值黑箱的成長影響很大,這是前人研究中沒注意到的一個基礎性問題,其根源來自中西方的文化差異。正是PE無形資產的投入改變了估值黑箱的成長軌跡,使之表現(xiàn)出不同的估值特性。2、退出前的估值不確定性與退出市場的不確定息息相關,由于目前不同退出方式收益懸殊太大,導致PE一旦未能實現(xiàn)IPO退出則對估值不確定造成巨大的影響,鑒于每種退出方式的收益與不同退出市場間的交易成本息息相關,為縮小退出前估值不確定程度,建議在不同交易成本設計下構建多層次資本市場來最終降低估值不確定性。 根據研究的結果針對目前實際存在的問題提出以下建議：1、對PE而言,從創(chuàng)業(yè)板數(shù)據的多項指標表明過去PE在投資前估值所采用的市盈率倍數(shù)偏高,今后應該要適度調低投資前市盈率的倍數(shù),以避免退出時一二級市場“估值倒掛”帶來的風險導致的估值不確定；2、鑒于PE個體能力不同表現(xiàn)出的估值差異不是估值不確定性的表現(xiàn),PE應該通過選擇不同的目標企業(yè)來實現(xiàn)自己應有的價值。3、對監(jiān)管層而言,可以在不同交易成本設計下構建多層次資本市場來最終降低估值不確定程度。
[Abstract]:According to the process of private equity investment valuation uncertainty research. Considering the characteristics of private equity investment to disclosure of information, the author introduces the control principle of black box theory for analysis of the black box in the research method, the valuation of private equity valuations as a black box to study the valuation uncertainty problem.
Based on the analysis of the whole investment investment cycle of private equity, the GEM listed companies based on historical data, using factor analysis method, statistical analysis method, example method, focus on investment and exit before the first two aspects to launch a series of research on the mechanism of valuation uncertainty. The results are: 1, investment valuation uncertainty is the result of the valuation of the existing scheme in the two sides of the game did not put into the valuation object, the loss of PE causes the valuation of black box is not complete, due to instability. In fact, great influence the growth of PE intangible assets of the target enterprise investment after the valuation of the black box, this is a basic problem in previous studies pay no attention to the cultural differences, with its roots in the West. It is the PE input of intangible assets has changed the growth trajectory of the black box of the valuation, showing.2 valuation characteristics, exit before. The value of uncertainty and the uncertainty of the market exit is due to the different ways to withdraw the income gap is too large, resulting in PE once failed to achieve IPO exit of valuation uncertainty caused by the huge impact, in view of each form of benefits and different exit transaction costs between markets are closely related, in order to reduce the exit before the valuation of the degree of uncertainty. In different transaction cost design under the construction of multi-level capital market to ultimately reduce the valuation uncertainty.
According to the results of the study aiming at the practical problems and put forward the following suggestions: 1, for PE, from a number of indicators of the gem data shows that in the past PE before investment valuation the price earning ratio is high, the future should be a modest reduction in multiple investment earnings, in order to avoid the risk of exit one or two market valuation the resulting upside down "valuation uncertainty; 2, the difference between the valuation of PE individual ability is not shown in different valuation uncertainty, PE should by choosing different target companies to achieve their expected value.3, as for the government, can the construction of multi-level capital market in different transaction costs to the final design reduce the valuation of the degree of uncertainty.

【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.51

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 屠崢嶸;風險企業(yè)與風險投資的博弈分析[J];財經科學;2005年03期

2 應瑞瑤,趙永清;風險投資中激勵機制與代理成本分析[J];財經研究;2004年06期

3 蔣大富;梅雨;;高新技術企業(yè)價值評估的方法選擇[J];財會月刊;2011年23期

4 許藝峰;饒育蕾;鄭磊;洪清華;何志聰;;對賭協(xié)議:天使還是邪魔[J];董事會;2011年11期

5 高正平;張興巍;;私募股權投資基金價值實現(xiàn)的機制設計——基于行業(yè)典型特征的研究綜述[J];經濟與管理研究;2011年02期

6 魏兵;周孝華;;我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板IPO定價研究——基于層次分析法[J];技術經濟;2011年02期

7 譚英雙;;基于不確定性的企業(yè)風險投資項目價值評估方法分析[J];技術經濟與管理研究;2009年05期

8 田增瑞,司春林;中美創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)價值評估方法的比較與分析[J];科技導報;2004年03期

9 武曉玲;陳正飛;王艷欣;;論我國成熟期企業(yè)海外上市的增值機會——以中國與新加坡企業(yè)估值間的差異為例[J];科學·經濟·社會;2006年04期

10 劉松;;杠桿收購的投資增值機制——價值放大與價值創(chuàng)造[J];科學管理研究;2011年01期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 常忠義;中國私募股權投資中的估值問題研究[D];中國科學技術大學;2008年

，

本文編號：1385892