基于代際疊代模型的經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-10 11:53
【摘要】： 經(jīng)濟增長作為社會發(fā)展的核心內(nèi)容,已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出了日益復(fù)雜的態(tài)勢。一是各經(jīng)濟實體在經(jīng)濟互動的過程中表現(xiàn)出了由碰撞、融合進而走向統(tǒng)一的趨勢；二是雖然經(jīng)濟一體化的趨勢明顯,但各經(jīng)濟實體之間甚至各經(jīng)濟體內(nèi)部仍然存在著發(fā)展的不平衡,比如巨大的貧富差距；三是當前的世界經(jīng)濟還表現(xiàn)出一些巨大的波動以及其對未來經(jīng)濟的影響充滿了不可預(yù)知性和復(fù)雜性。 如何解釋經(jīng)濟增長的復(fù)雜性,就成為當前宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)需要解決的主要問題之一。經(jīng)典的增長理論多集中于對系統(tǒng)的唯一平衡點即經(jīng)濟中唯一增長路線的分析,這顯然不能有效解釋現(xiàn)實社會經(jīng)濟中復(fù)雜多變的增長現(xiàn)象。這些理論傾向于研究外生因素和外生的復(fù)雜性可能對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生的影響,但是可能更需要關(guān)注系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)生因素對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響。這也契合了當前我國以啟動內(nèi)需為著力點,抵御惡劣的世界經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的現(xiàn)實背景。 如何應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟增長的復(fù)雜性,尤其是如何應(yīng)對類似金融危機等極端的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象的考驗,是擺在經(jīng)濟學(xué)者及政策決策者面前的又一個共同課題。而控制論的最新進展,為研究如何控制經(jīng)濟增長的復(fù)雜性,如何尋求新的更有效的制度和政策提供了新的方法和理論。所以,系統(tǒng)而深入地研究經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的主要來源以及如何控制這種復(fù)雜性具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義和理論價值。 本文闡述了經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的含義,分析了其主要來源,同時指出了增長的復(fù)雜性實際上是源于經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性。本文選取人力資本投資、社會保障(養(yǎng)老保險),環(huán)境污染以及經(jīng)濟泡沫四個影響經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的因素進行研究。 首先,探討了人力資本投資對經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)影響。信息成本影響人們作出準確的人力資本投資決策。因此,信息成本的變動會傳導(dǎo)到經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出層面,最終造成經(jīng)濟增長的波動。在對應(yīng)的動態(tài)系統(tǒng)中將出現(xiàn)分岔現(xiàn)象。 其次,本文將社會保障中的重要項目養(yǎng)老保險引入代際疊代模型,分析了在新的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)下,養(yǎng)老保險率對經(jīng)濟增長的波動作用,證明了選擇合適的養(yǎng)老保險率對維持經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定的重要作用。 再次,本文將環(huán)境因素引入代際疊代模型,分析了非線性累積的環(huán)境污染對經(jīng)濟的動態(tài)影響機制,并求解了對應(yīng)的系統(tǒng)中出現(xiàn)波動的新條件。人類與環(huán)境之間存在著相互作用的關(guān)系。社會的發(fā)展離不開環(huán)境因素的作用,而人類的生產(chǎn)活動又引起日益嚴重的環(huán)境問題。如果不協(xié)調(diào)好兩者的關(guān)系,就可能加劇經(jīng)濟增長的不穩(wěn)定性、加大經(jīng)濟增長的復(fù)雜性程度。 最后,經(jīng)濟泡沫是經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的又一主要來源。經(jīng)濟泡沫的存在性是泡沫研究的核心議題。本文從理論和實證兩方面進行了研究：一方面,將經(jīng)濟泡沫引入代際疊代模型,研究了了帶有經(jīng)濟泡沫的三部門代際疊代模型中泡沫的存在唯一性問題；另一方面,通過中國股市的最新時間序列數(shù)據(jù)從實證方面論證了泡沫的存在性。 基于上述動態(tài)分析的結(jié)果,本文試圖利用現(xiàn)代控制理論的最新研究成果探討經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的控制問題。在上述模型中,引入了外部控制器,使得控制系統(tǒng)具有了較為理想的動力學(xué)性態(tài)：一般來說控制系統(tǒng)是漸近穩(wěn)定的,甚至在某些區(qū)域內(nèi)具有比原系統(tǒng)還要高的效用水平。對控制器可以解釋如下：一方面,可以視其為市場的內(nèi)在監(jiān)控機制,能夠避免復(fù)雜的波動；另一方面,可視其為政府的政策干預(yù)手段,例如政府可通過諸如稅收或者工資補貼等政策穩(wěn)定市場的波動。 這說明：第一,雖然在經(jīng)濟和金融領(lǐng)域?qū)?jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的認識還存在很大爭議,但是本文證明了人力資本投資、社會保障(養(yǎng)老保險)、環(huán)境污染和經(jīng)濟泡沫是經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)內(nèi)生復(fù)雜性的主要來源。第二,本文證明了對系統(tǒng)內(nèi)生復(fù)雜性控制在邏輯以及數(shù)理上是可行的�？刂七^程沒有改變系統(tǒng)的初始狀態(tài),平衡點保持不變。控制方法對原系統(tǒng)的依賴程度要求較低,不要求精確認識經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的性狀,所以我們可以較易求得外部控制器。對經(jīng)濟增長復(fù)雜性的控制研究為政策制定提供了定量的分析基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:As the core of social development, economic growth has shown an increasingly complex situation. One is the tendency of the economic entity to show the trend of the unity in the course of economic interaction; 2 is the trend of economic integration, but there is still an imbalance of development among the economic entities and even in the economy, such as the huge gap between the rich and the poor; III. The current world economy also shows some great fluctuations and its impact on the future economy is full of unpredictability and complexity. How to explain the complexity of economic growth becomes the main problem that needs to be solved in the current macro-economics One of the problems is that the classical growth theory is focused on the only equilibrium point of the system, that is, the analysis of the only growth route in the economy, which is obviously not effective in explaining the complex and changeable in the real social economy Growth is a phenomenon. These theories tend to study the effects of external and external factors on economic growth, but it may be more important to focus on the system's endogenous factors for economic growth The influence of the sample is also in agreement with the current China to start the domestic demand as the point of focus, to resist the bad world economic environment Background: How to deal with the complexity of economic growth, especially the test of how to deal with extreme economic phenomena such as the financial crisis, is an economic scholar and policy decision-maker The latest development of cybernetics is how to control the complexity of economic growth and how to seek new and more effective systems and policies. For new methods and theories, the main source of the complexity of economic growth and how to control the complexity of the system is certain The present paper expounds the meaning of the complexity of economic growth, analyzes its main source, and points out the complexity of growth In fact, it comes from the complexity of the economic system. This paper selects the four effects of human capital investment, social security (old-age insurance), environmental pollution and economic bubble Research on the factors of the complexity of economic growth. First of all, The dynamic effect of human capital investment on economic growth is discussed. The cost affects people to make an accurate human capital investment decision. Therefore, the change of information cost will be conducted At the level of economic output, economic growth is ultimately caused In this paper, the bifurcation phenomenon will appear in the corresponding dynamic system. Secondly, this paper introduces the important project old-age insurance in the social security into the generation-generation-generation model, and analyzes the effect of the endowment insurance rate on the economic growth under the new production function. In this paper, the important role of choosing the proper old-age insurance rate to maintain the stability of the economy is discussed. The environmental factors are introduced into the generation of generation-generation model, and the environmental pollution of the non-linear accumulation is analyzed. The dynamic impact mechanism of the economy and the corresponding solution are solved. A new condition of fluctuation in the system. There is a relationship between human and the environment. The development of society is not the same as that of the environment. The role of environmental factors, and the human production activity has caused a growing environmental problem. If not, the close of the two is not coordinated. It is possible to increase the instability of economic growth and to increase economic growth The degree of complexity. Finally, the economic bubble It is another main source of the complexity of the economic growth. The existence of the economic bubble is the core issue of the research of the bubble. The existence and uniqueness of the foam in the three-sector inter-generational model with economic bubble are solved. On the other hand, through the latest time-series data of the Chinese stock market, the existence of the foam is demonstrated from the positive aspects. As a result of the analysis, this paper attempts to explore the control of the complexity of economic growth with the latest research results of the modern control theory. In the above model, the external controller is introduced, so that the control system has the ideal dynamics. State: In general, the control system is asymptotically stable, and even in some areas has a higher utility level than the original system. The controller can be explained as follows: On the one hand, it can be seen as the intrinsic monitoring mechanism of the market, so as to avoid complex fluctuations; on the other hand, visual It serves as a means of government policy intervention, such as the government's ability to stabilize the market by policy such as taxation or wage subsidies. This means that, first, while the recognition of the complexity of economic growth in the economic and financial fields is still very controversial, this paper The investment of human capital, social security (old-age insurance), environmental pollution and economic bubble are the following: The main source of endogenous complexity in the economic system. The control of endogenous complexity of the system is logical and mathematical. The control process does not change the initial state of the system and the equilibrium point remains the same. The control method the dependency degree of the original system is required to be low, the character of the economic system is not required to be accurately recognized,
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F224;F061.2
本文編號：2322401
[Abstract]:As the core of social development, economic growth has shown an increasingly complex situation. One is the tendency of the economic entity to show the trend of the unity in the course of economic interaction; 2 is the trend of economic integration, but there is still an imbalance of development among the economic entities and even in the economy, such as the huge gap between the rich and the poor; III. The current world economy also shows some great fluctuations and its impact on the future economy is full of unpredictability and complexity. How to explain the complexity of economic growth becomes the main problem that needs to be solved in the current macro-economics One of the problems is that the classical growth theory is focused on the only equilibrium point of the system, that is, the analysis of the only growth route in the economy, which is obviously not effective in explaining the complex and changeable in the real social economy Growth is a phenomenon. These theories tend to study the effects of external and external factors on economic growth, but it may be more important to focus on the system's endogenous factors for economic growth The influence of the sample is also in agreement with the current China to start the domestic demand as the point of focus, to resist the bad world economic environment Background: How to deal with the complexity of economic growth, especially the test of how to deal with extreme economic phenomena such as the financial crisis, is an economic scholar and policy decision-maker The latest development of cybernetics is how to control the complexity of economic growth and how to seek new and more effective systems and policies. For new methods and theories, the main source of the complexity of economic growth and how to control the complexity of the system is certain The present paper expounds the meaning of the complexity of economic growth, analyzes its main source, and points out the complexity of growth In fact, it comes from the complexity of the economic system. This paper selects the four effects of human capital investment, social security (old-age insurance), environmental pollution and economic bubble Research on the factors of the complexity of economic growth. First of all, The dynamic effect of human capital investment on economic growth is discussed. The cost affects people to make an accurate human capital investment decision. Therefore, the change of information cost will be conducted At the level of economic output, economic growth is ultimately caused In this paper, the bifurcation phenomenon will appear in the corresponding dynamic system. Secondly, this paper introduces the important project old-age insurance in the social security into the generation-generation-generation model, and analyzes the effect of the endowment insurance rate on the economic growth under the new production function. In this paper, the important role of choosing the proper old-age insurance rate to maintain the stability of the economy is discussed. The environmental factors are introduced into the generation of generation-generation model, and the environmental pollution of the non-linear accumulation is analyzed. The dynamic impact mechanism of the economy and the corresponding solution are solved. A new condition of fluctuation in the system. There is a relationship between human and the environment. The development of society is not the same as that of the environment. The role of environmental factors, and the human production activity has caused a growing environmental problem. If not, the close of the two is not coordinated. It is possible to increase the instability of economic growth and to increase economic growth The degree of complexity. Finally, the economic bubble It is another main source of the complexity of the economic growth. The existence of the economic bubble is the core issue of the research of the bubble. The existence and uniqueness of the foam in the three-sector inter-generational model with economic bubble are solved. On the other hand, through the latest time-series data of the Chinese stock market, the existence of the foam is demonstrated from the positive aspects. As a result of the analysis, this paper attempts to explore the control of the complexity of economic growth with the latest research results of the modern control theory. In the above model, the external controller is introduced, so that the control system has the ideal dynamics. State: In general, the control system is asymptotically stable, and even in some areas has a higher utility level than the original system. The controller can be explained as follows: On the one hand, it can be seen as the intrinsic monitoring mechanism of the market, so as to avoid complex fluctuations; on the other hand, visual It serves as a means of government policy intervention, such as the government's ability to stabilize the market by policy such as taxation or wage subsidies. This means that, first, while the recognition of the complexity of economic growth in the economic and financial fields is still very controversial, this paper The investment of human capital, social security (old-age insurance), environmental pollution and economic bubble are the following: The main source of endogenous complexity in the economic system. The control of endogenous complexity of the system is logical and mathematical. The control process does not change the initial state of the system and the equilibrium point remains the same. The control method the dependency degree of the original system is required to be low, the character of the economic system is not required to be accurately recognized,
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F224;F061.2
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