【摘要】： 隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展，企業(yè)面臨的競爭日趨激烈，企業(yè)投資活動(dòng)中不確定因素日益增多，，各投資項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施面臨更多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的規(guī)模也越來越大，因此對投資項(xiàng)目而言，除了進(jìn)行可行性研究外，還必須進(jìn)行全面的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。本文從企業(yè)的角度出發(fā)，探討了建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投資中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識別、量化和評估的原則、方法和技術(shù)，并通過武漢市銀行機(jī)具廠“全自動(dòng)捆鈔機(jī)”項(xiàng)目對這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法和技術(shù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。 本文的理論研究部分，剖析了對一個(gè)工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的三個(gè)步驟：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)，介紹了專家調(diào)查法(包括個(gè)人判斷法、頭腦風(fēng)暴法和德爾菲法)、故障樹分析法、幕景分析法、篩選—監(jiān)測—診斷技術(shù)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來源表和核對表等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別常用方法，以及盈虧平衡分析、敏感性分析、主觀評分法、層次分析法、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)酬法、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)當(dāng)量法、決策樹法、外推法、解析法、蒙特卡羅模擬法等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法。 在實(shí)證研究部分，本文對武漢市銀行機(jī)具廠的“全自動(dòng)捆鈔機(jī)”項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了全面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，并提出了對該項(xiàng)目有指導(dǎo)意義的實(shí)施方案。文中首先用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來源表、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)核對表辨識出該項(xiàng)目各個(gè)階段、各個(gè)層面的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和組織風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，然后用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)酬法、決策樹法、解析法和蒙特卡洛模擬法對這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作了分析和評估，并分析了其對項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)評價(jià)指標(biāo)和項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的影響。 本文運(yùn)用工程經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析等多種學(xué)科的知識、理論與方法，采用定量分析與定性分析相結(jié)合，解析法、調(diào)查法與計(jì)算機(jī)模擬技術(shù)相結(jié)合的研究方法，以具體的工程項(xiàng)目為背景，剖析了投資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的全過程，為企業(yè)進(jìn)行投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析、減少項(xiàng)目投資活動(dòng)帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失提供了參考，具有較強(qiáng)的實(shí)用性和可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economic integration, enterprises are facing more and more fierce competition, the uncertain factors in the enterprise investment activities are increasing day by day, the implementation of each investment project faces more and more risks, and the scale of risk loss is becoming larger and larger. Therefore, in addition to the feasibility study, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive project risk analysis for the investment project. This paper discusses the principles, methods and techniques of risk identification, quantification and evaluation in construction project investment from the point of view of enterprise. The risk analysis methods and techniques are studied empirically through the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan bank tool factory. In the part of theoretical research, the paper analyzes three steps of risk analysis for a project: risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation, and introduces the method of expert investigation (including individual judgment method). Brainstorming and Delphi), fault tree analysis, scene analysis, screening-monitoring-diagnosis techniques, risk source lists and checklists, as well as breakeven analysis, sensitivity analysis, subjective scoring, etc. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), risk reward method, risk equivalent method, decision tree method, extrapolation method, analytical method, Monte Carlo simulation and other risk assessment methods. In the part of empirical research, this paper makes a comprehensive risk analysis on the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan City Bank tool Factory, and puts forward a guiding scheme for the project. In this paper, we first use the risk source table and the risk checklist to identify the economic risks and organizational risks at all levels of the project, and then we use the risk reward method and the decision tree method. The analytical method and Monte Carlo simulation analysis and evaluation of these risks and analysis of the impact on the project financial evaluation indicators and project implementation. This paper applies the knowledge, theories and methods of engineering economics, modern management science and risk analysis, and adopts the research method of combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, analytical method, investigation method and computer simulation technology. Taking the concrete project as the background, this paper analyzes the whole process of investment project risk analysis, which provides a reference for enterprises to carry out investment risk analysis and reduces the risk loss caused by project investment activities. It has strong practicability and maneuverability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2002
【分類號】：F062.4

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 雍正韜;KG企業(yè)鈦材加工項(xiàng)目可行性分析[D];云南大學(xué);2010年

本文編號：2244342