【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)作為一種有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移和社會管理機(jī)制，是市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家扶持農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的通行做法。目前，，國內(nèi)外農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)模式主要有政府主導(dǎo)模式、政府支持下相互會社模式、民辦公助模式和國家重點(diǎn)選擇性扶持模式等四種。本文對贛南臍橙發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率的厘定主要表現(xiàn)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)與數(shù)學(xué)形式表達(dá)。 作為贛州優(yōu)勢發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)之一的贛南臍橙，其發(fā)展過程存在市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、社會風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵御過程中仍存在一定問題�！度舾梢庖姟返恼匠雠_給贛南臍橙發(fā)展迎來新的挑戰(zhàn)與機(jī)遇，贛南地區(qū)開始了臍橙保險(xiǎn)的研究。 本文以贛南臍橙農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)為研究對象，基于贛南臍橙發(fā)展中的歷史單產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，采用直線滑動平均法構(gòu)建單產(chǎn)隨機(jī)波動百分比；再通過直接正態(tài)概率分布法和偏態(tài)分布正態(tài)化的概率分布，分別得出其單產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失概率密度函數(shù)；最后通過單產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失概率密度函數(shù)進(jìn)行贛南臍橙的農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率厘定。將兩種模型估算的費(fèi)率同贛南臍橙現(xiàn)行試點(diǎn)費(fèi)率進(jìn)行分析比較，表明贛南臍橙農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率的厘定同本文確定的模型之一存在很好的契合關(guān)系，說明了用偏態(tài)分布正態(tài)化的概率分布模型進(jìn)行贛南臍橙費(fèi)率厘定的方法是可行的。
[Abstract]:As an effective risk transfer and social management mechanism, agricultural insurance is a way to support the development of agriculture in the market economy. At present, the domestic and foreign agricultural insurance model mainly has the government-led mode, and the government supports the following four modes, such as the mutual development mode, the people's office support mode and the national key selective support mode. In this paper, the determination of the rate of the development of the agricultural insurance rate in the navel orange of the southern Jiangxi is mainly shown in the number of risk losses and the expression in the form of mathematics. As one of the dominant developing industry of Ganzhou, the navel orange of the south of Jiangxi, its development process has the market risk, the social risk, the natural risk, and the risk protection process still has a certain question The paper discusses the new challenges and opportunities for the development of the navel orange in the southern part of the Gannan area, and the research of the navel orange insurance in the southern part of the Gannan area. In this paper, based on the historical single-production data in the development of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi, the single-production random fluctuation percentage is constructed by the linear sliding average method based on the historical single-production data in the development of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi. The probability density function of the single production risk is derived from the distribution of rate, and the agricultural insurance premium of the navel orange of the southern Jiangxi province is finally made through the probability density function of the single production risk. The rate is determined. The rates of the two models are compared with the current pilot rate of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi province. It is shown that the determination of the agricultural insurance rate of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi is a good deed with one of the models determined in this paper. In this paper, the method for determining the rate of the navel orange in the south of the Gannan by using the probability distribution model of the partial-state distribution is described.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.66;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 黃正軍;;基于博弈理論視角下農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)政策性解讀[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2010年28期

2 高春玲;;中西部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展互動關(guān)系實(shí)證研究[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2011年24期

3 王秀芬;李茂松;;農(nóng)村合作經(jīng)濟(jì)組織推動農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展研究[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2011年30期

4 吳剛;農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展的國際比較及啟示與借鑒[J];商業(yè)研究;2001年02期

5 胡秋明;論我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展的制度創(chuàng)新[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2004年05期

6 張祖榮;;當(dāng)前我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展的主要問題及對策建議[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2006年10期

7 楊桂云;;“農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)+涉農(nóng)信貸”貸款定價(jià)研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)理論與實(shí)踐;2011年05期

8 肖俊斌;;財(cái)政支持農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)問題探討[J];調(diào)研世界;2009年10期

9 馮文麗,林寶清;我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)短缺的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析[J];福建論壇(經(jīng)濟(jì)社會版);2003年06期

10 馮文麗;蘇曉鵬;;我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)“高補(bǔ)貼低覆蓋”問題分析[J];南方金融;2012年03期

本文編號：2508476