基于全球氣候政策博弈的中國(guó)碳減排戰(zhàn)略研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-20 14:01
【摘要】：以氣候變暖為主要標(biāo)志的氣候變化已經(jīng)成為對(duì)人類(lèi)生存具有十分威脅的全球問(wèn)題。在人類(lèi)文明步入工業(yè)化以來(lái)，經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)快速發(fā)展，化石能源燃燒產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳等溫室氣體超出了自然所能負(fù)荷的范疇，人類(lèi)文明的可持續(xù)發(fā)展受到嚴(yán)重的威脅。自巴西里約熱內(nèi)盧的聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境與發(fā)展大會(huì)以來(lái)，國(guó)際社會(huì)圍繞氣候問(wèn)題歷經(jīng)了多次談判，展開(kāi)了激烈博弈。由于近年來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量與碳排放量不斷增長(zhǎng)居于世界前端，國(guó)際上要求中國(guó)承擔(dān)減排責(zé)任的呼聲越發(fā)強(qiáng)烈。氣候問(wèn)題已經(jīng)超出了單純的科學(xué)范疇而成為一個(gè)全球性的政治問(wèn)題，中國(guó)應(yīng)謹(jǐn)慎面對(duì)氣候問(wèn)題可能帶來(lái)的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)等方面的沖擊。 本文主要從四大方面研究在國(guó)際氣候政策博弈下中國(guó)應(yīng)采取的碳減排戰(zhàn)略。一是對(duì)全球氣候政策博弈的發(fā)展歷史進(jìn)行研究，從而把握氣候博弈中的利益集團(tuán)與氣候博弈發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；二是通過(guò)運(yùn)用IPCC第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告中的碳排放估算方法估算近年中國(guó)碳排放數(shù)據(jù)，并基于KAYA恒等式通過(guò)LMDI因素分解模型對(duì)近年中國(guó)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行測(cè)算，以衡量影響中國(guó)碳排放的因素以及各個(gè)因素的貢獻(xiàn)度，根據(jù)模型結(jié)果以及相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)中國(guó)能源結(jié)構(gòu)、碳排放總量、人均碳排放等指標(biāo)與主要發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家進(jìn)行對(duì)比，分析中國(guó)的碳排放現(xiàn)狀以及碳減排潛力；三是在比較研究各國(guó)碳減排政策的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)中國(guó)的現(xiàn)有碳減排措施進(jìn)行分析對(duì)比，以參考借鑒世界各國(guó)碳減排政策方法的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)；四是根據(jù)中國(guó)的碳排放現(xiàn)狀以及碳減排政策，運(yùn)用博弈模型分析影響中國(guó)氣候博弈的各個(gè)方面以及中國(guó)在全球氣候政策博弈中應(yīng)采取的戰(zhàn)略。 基于以上研究結(jié)果，本文提出中國(guó)在新一輪全球氣候政策博弈中的基本戰(zhàn)略。氣候問(wèn)題關(guān)系整個(gè)人類(lèi)文明的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，中國(guó)在氣候問(wèn)題上應(yīng)維持一貫樹(shù)立的大國(guó)形象，以積極的姿態(tài)參與到全球氣候博弈中。中國(guó)雖然碳排放總量較大，但是人均碳排放水平剛達(dá)到國(guó)際平均水平、遠(yuǎn)低于主要發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，在氣候博弈中應(yīng)堅(jiān)持“共同但有區(qū)別的責(zé)任”原則，團(tuán)結(jié)發(fā)展中國(guó)家，爭(zhēng)取發(fā)展權(quán)。同時(shí)，中國(guó)應(yīng)積極尋求國(guó)際合作與區(qū)域性合作，參與國(guó)際碳交易市場(chǎng)，，并積極推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)低碳發(fā)展路徑，提高發(fā)展質(zhì)量與整體競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，在全球氣候政策博弈中爭(zhēng)取主動(dòng)地位。
[Abstract]:Climate change, marked mainly by climate change, has become a global problem that threatens the survival of human beings. Since the industrialization of human civilization, the rapid development of economy and society, the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide produced by fossil energy combustion have exceeded the scope of natural load, and the sustainable development of human civilization has been seriously threatened. Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the international community has gone through many negotiations on climate and launched a fierce game. As China's economy and carbon emissions continue to grow at the forefront of the world in recent years, international calls for China to assume responsibility for emissions reduction have become more and more intense. Climate problem has become a global political problem beyond pure science. China should be careful to deal with the political and economic impact of climate problems. This paper mainly studies China's carbon emission reduction strategy under the international climate policy game from four aspects. The first is to study the development history of global climate policy game, so as to grasp the development trend of interest group and climate game in climate game. The second is to estimate the carbon emission data of China in recent years by using the carbon emission estimation method in the fourth IPCC Assessment report, and calculate the relevant data of China in recent years by means of the LMDI factor decomposition model based on the KAYA identity. In order to measure the factors that affect China's carbon emissions and the contribution degree of each factor, the energy structure, total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of China are compared with those of the major developed countries according to the results of the model and relevant data. The current situation and potential of carbon emission reduction in China are analyzed. Third, on the basis of comparing and studying the carbon emission reduction policies of various countries, this paper analyzes and compares the existing carbon emission reduction measures in China, in order to refer to the successful experiences of the countries in the world in carbon reduction policies and methods; Fourth, according to the current situation of China's carbon emissions and carbon emission reduction policies, the game model is used to analyze the various aspects of influencing China's climate game and the strategies that China should adopt in the global climate policy game. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward the basic strategy of China in the new round of global climate policy game. The climate problem is related to the sustainable development of the whole human civilization. China should maintain the image of a large country and participate in the global climate game with an active attitude. Although China's total carbon emissions are relatively large, its per capita carbon emissions have just reached the international average level, which is far lower than that of the major developed countries. In the climate game, we should adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," and unite developing countries. Towards the right to development At the same time, China should actively seek international and regional cooperation, participate in the international carbon trading market, actively promote the low-carbon development path of domestic economy, improve the quality of development and overall competitiveness, and strive for an active position in the global climate policy game.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X321;F224.32
[Abstract]:Climate change, marked mainly by climate change, has become a global problem that threatens the survival of human beings. Since the industrialization of human civilization, the rapid development of economy and society, the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide produced by fossil energy combustion have exceeded the scope of natural load, and the sustainable development of human civilization has been seriously threatened. Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the international community has gone through many negotiations on climate and launched a fierce game. As China's economy and carbon emissions continue to grow at the forefront of the world in recent years, international calls for China to assume responsibility for emissions reduction have become more and more intense. Climate problem has become a global political problem beyond pure science. China should be careful to deal with the political and economic impact of climate problems. This paper mainly studies China's carbon emission reduction strategy under the international climate policy game from four aspects. The first is to study the development history of global climate policy game, so as to grasp the development trend of interest group and climate game in climate game. The second is to estimate the carbon emission data of China in recent years by using the carbon emission estimation method in the fourth IPCC Assessment report, and calculate the relevant data of China in recent years by means of the LMDI factor decomposition model based on the KAYA identity. In order to measure the factors that affect China's carbon emissions and the contribution degree of each factor, the energy structure, total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of China are compared with those of the major developed countries according to the results of the model and relevant data. The current situation and potential of carbon emission reduction in China are analyzed. Third, on the basis of comparing and studying the carbon emission reduction policies of various countries, this paper analyzes and compares the existing carbon emission reduction measures in China, in order to refer to the successful experiences of the countries in the world in carbon reduction policies and methods; Fourth, according to the current situation of China's carbon emissions and carbon emission reduction policies, the game model is used to analyze the various aspects of influencing China's climate game and the strategies that China should adopt in the global climate policy game. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward the basic strategy of China in the new round of global climate policy game. The climate problem is related to the sustainable development of the whole human civilization. China should maintain the image of a large country and participate in the global climate game with an active attitude. Although China's total carbon emissions are relatively large, its per capita carbon emissions have just reached the international average level, which is far lower than that of the major developed countries. In the climate game, we should adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," and unite developing countries. Towards the right to development At the same time, China should actively seek international and regional cooperation, participate in the international carbon trading market, actively promote the low-carbon development path of domestic economy, improve the quality of development and overall competitiveness, and strive for an active position in the global climate policy game.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X321;F224.32
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