【摘要】：衣、食、住、行是人類生存發(fā)展的必要物質(zhì)基礎,隨著21世紀的到來,中國經(jīng)濟蓬勃發(fā)展,各項指數(shù)欣欣向榮。現(xiàn)今的中國基本解決了溫飽問題,人們更多的把目光聚集到了住房問題上。目前,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)已成為我國國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)能否健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,既關系到國民生產(chǎn)指數(shù)的穩(wěn)步提高,同時也關系到人民的幸福生活指數(shù)的上升,所以分析影響房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的因素主次,為市場準確定位房價就顯得至關重要。在我國伴隨著改革開放經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)市場也隨之迅猛發(fā)展,房價的上漲與下跌涉及到如此多群體的利益,以至于越來越多的人從不同的角度對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的發(fā)展及價格走勢進行分析。研究房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響因素有利于中國房地產(chǎn)市場持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定、健康的發(fā)展。因此研究房價的走勢和影響房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文第一章前言,介紹了本文的寫作背景,國內(nèi)外文獻綜述,目的以及意義,研究方法和結構安排。第二章,理論基礎,介紹了房地產(chǎn)價格的定義,房地產(chǎn)價格的構成要素,以及影響房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響因素。第三章,時間序列ARIMA模型的介紹。第四章,因子分析的介紹。第五章是文章的主要部分,即基于我國房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,對我國房地產(chǎn)價格數(shù)據(jù)以及對影響房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的諸多因子進行了實際分析,先以時間序列分析方法,對2010年1月至2013年12月的我國房地產(chǎn)價格進行分析,利用了Eviews軟件作出擬合模型并進行趨勢分析,然后再對2013年全國14個城市的房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)影響因素通過運用SPSS軟件作因子分析。 最后通過對房價趨勢發(fā)展以及影響房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素的分析研究,為房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展以及市場經(jīng)濟的宏觀調(diào)控給予一些個人建議。
[Abstract]:Clothing, food, shelter and transportation are the essential material basis for human survival and development. With the arrival of the 21st century, China's economy is booming and various indices are flourishing. Today's China has basically solved the problem of food and clothing, people focus more attention on the housing problem. At present, the real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries in the development of our national economy. Whether the real estate industry can develop healthily and stably not only relates to the steady improvement of the national production index, but also to the rise of the people's happy life index. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the factors that affect the development of real estate industry. With the rapid development of China's reform and opening up economy, the real estate market has also developed rapidly. The rise and fall of house prices involve the interests of so many groups. More and more people analyze the development and price trend of real estate industry from different angles. Studying the influencing factors of real estate industry is beneficial to the sustained, stable and healthy development of Chinese real estate market. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the trend of house prices and the factors affecting the development of real estate industry. The first chapter introduces the writing background, domestic and foreign literature review, purpose and significance, research methods and structural arrangements. The second chapter, the theoretical basis, introduces the definition of real estate price, the elements of real estate price, as well as the influence factors of real estate industry. Chapter 3 introduces the time series ARIMA model. Chapter four, introduction of factor analysis. The fifth chapter is the main part of the article, that is, based on the current situation of real estate development in China, the real estate price data and a number of factors affecting the development of real estate industry are analyzed. First, the method of time series analysis is used. This paper analyzes the real estate price of our country from January 2010 to December 2013, and makes use of the Eviews software to make the fitting model and the trend analysis. Then the factors affecting the real estate industry in 14 cities in China in 2013 were analyzed by using SPSS software. Finally, through the analysis and research on the trend of house price and the factors influencing the development of real estate industry, some personal suggestions are given for the healthy development of real estate industry and the macro-control of market economy.
【學位授予單位】：云南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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