【摘要】：中國(guó)勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額變動(dòng)情況、影響因素以及提升水平一直是眾多學(xué)者研究的重點(diǎn)。大多數(shù)學(xué)者都認(rèn)為中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額處于低水平穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài)，并且受經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、資本深化、對(duì)外開放、教育水平、國(guó)有化、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、政府干預(yù)等多方面因素的影響，但是對(duì)于勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額提升的適度水平卻鮮有測(cè)算。 本文通過(guò)建立向量誤差修正（VEC）模型，從長(zhǎng)期角度考察勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額與各影響因素之間的關(guān)系。在對(duì)模型進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、滯后結(jié)構(gòu)檢驗(yàn)以及平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)之后，結(jié)合對(duì)中國(guó)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)變化趨勢(shì)的研究以及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況，測(cè)算勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額提升的適度水平。 研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額受以人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值所代表的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平及其平方項(xiàng)、以進(jìn)出口總額占GDP比重所代表的對(duì)外開放水平、以平均受教育年限所代表的教育水平、以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值占GDP比重所代表的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及以財(cái)政支出占GDP比重等諸多因素的影響，以上影響因素能解釋勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額89.82%的變動(dòng)原因；模型的F統(tǒng)計(jì)量較小，模型整體的AIC值和SC值分別為-33.21和-25.19，也都較小，說(shuō)明模型整體效果較為理想。 在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額受產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響最大。其中第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值所占比重每增加1%，會(huì)引起勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額減少約4%。誤差修正項(xiàng)的系數(shù)反映了長(zhǎng)期均衡對(duì)短期偏離的調(diào)整力度，在本模型中為-1.3117，變動(dòng)方向符合模型收斂的要求，同時(shí)也是較大的調(diào)整力度。本文將Verhulst模型對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值比重的預(yù)測(cè)作為基準(zhǔn)，，得到2020和2025年我國(guó)勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額分別提升至52.48%和56.46%。該適度水平既與其他國(guó)家和地區(qū)在相同階段的發(fā)展情況相吻合，又與中國(guó)的實(shí)際情況、政策綱領(lǐng)相一致。 最后，本文在理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上，基于經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究對(duì)中國(guó)勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬份額提升的實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑進(jìn)行了分析，主要從工業(yè)化進(jìn)程、二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)以及制度因素等角度提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The change of labor compensation share, influencing factors and upgrading level have been the focus of many scholars in China. Most scholars believe that China's share of labor compensation is at a low level and stable, and is affected by economic growth, deepening capital, opening up to the outside world, education, nationalization, industrial structure, government intervention, and so on. However, the moderate level of the increase in the share of labor compensation is rarely measured. In this paper, the (VEC) model of vector error correction is established to investigate the relationship between the share of labor compensation and the influencing factors from a long-term perspective. After the cointegration test, lag structure test and stability test of the model, combined with the research on the change trend of China's secondary industry and the actual situation of economic development, the moderate level of the increase of labor compensation share is calculated. The study found that China's share of labor remuneration is represented by the level of economic development represented by the per capita gross domestic product and its square term, and by the level of opening up represented by the proportion of total imports and exports to GDP. The influence of many factors, such as the educational level represented by the average number of years of education, the industrial structure represented by the proportion of added value of secondary industry to GDP, and the proportion of financial expenditure to GDP, etc. The above factors can explain the change of labor compensation share 89.82%, the F statistic of the model is small, the AIC value and SC value of the whole model are -33.21 and -25.19, respectively, which indicate that the overall effect of the model is better. In the long-term, China's share of labor compensation is most affected by the industrial structure. Each increase in the proportion of added value of the secondary industry will cause the share of labor compensation to decrease by about 4%. The coefficient of the error correction item reflects the adjustment strength of the long term equilibrium to the short term deviation. In this model, the change direction is-1. 3117, and the change direction accords with the requirement of model convergence, and it is also a great adjustment force. In this paper, the Verhulst model is used as the benchmark to predict the proportion of added value in the second industry, and the share of labor compensation in China in 2020 and 2025 is raised to 52.48% and 56.46%, respectively. The moderate level is not only consistent with the development of other countries and regions at the same stage, but also with the actual situation of China and the policy program. Finally, based on the theoretical model and empirical research, this paper analyzes the path to increase the share of labor compensation in China, mainly from the process of industrialization, dual economic structure, Industrial structure transformation and upgrading as well as institutional factors and other angles to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F249.24

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