【摘要】：隨著市場(chǎng)和科學(xué)技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展，消費(fèi)者需求呈現(xiàn)出多樣化和細(xì)分化的趨勢(shì)，制造企業(yè)逐步轉(zhuǎn)化為多品種小批量的生產(chǎn)方式。紡機(jī)企業(yè)面臨著在滿足客戶(hù)多樣化需求的前提下，降低生產(chǎn)成本，減少浪費(fèi)，提高紡機(jī)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量的巨大挑戰(zhàn)，訂單作為客戶(hù)需求的體現(xiàn)和企業(yè)的生命，研究在復(fù)雜多變的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下對(duì)做出準(zhǔn)確的訂單預(yù)測(cè)可以有效的解決上述問(wèn)題。 隨著信息化技術(shù)的發(fā)展，紡織機(jī)械制造企業(yè)通過(guò)采用信息管理系統(tǒng)，在數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中存儲(chǔ)了大量的銷(xiāo)售訂單歷史數(shù)據(jù)，本文依據(jù)企業(yè)的銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)，分析客戶(hù)需求的變化特征和影響因素，以此作為歷史訂單數(shù)據(jù)的研究切點(diǎn)，從而建立訂單預(yù)測(cè)模型。本文主要工作如下： （1）介紹了制造行業(yè)的背景和產(chǎn)品特點(diǎn)，在此基礎(chǔ)上詳細(xì)介紹了訂單預(yù)測(cè)的相關(guān)知識(shí)和研究現(xiàn)狀，，指出了常見(jiàn)訂單預(yù)測(cè)方法的不足，提出了面向客戶(hù)需求建立紡機(jī)企業(yè)的訂單預(yù)測(cè)模型。 （2）闡述了客戶(hù)需求與訂單的辯證關(guān)系，在紡機(jī)行業(yè)的歷史銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)規(guī)范完整的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了客戶(hù)需求對(duì)于訂單預(yù)測(cè)的重要意義，提出了從傳統(tǒng)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)方法轉(zhuǎn)為針對(duì)客戶(hù)需求的訂單預(yù)測(cè)方法。 （3）依據(jù)實(shí)時(shí)銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)，并結(jié)合紡機(jī)市場(chǎng)分析客戶(hù)需求的變動(dòng)特征，提出相關(guān)的客戶(hù)需求模糊影響因子，構(gòu)建一種新的基于客戶(hù)需求模糊影響因子的時(shí)間序列分解訂單預(yù)測(cè)方法，并對(duì)本文所采用的模型建立方法和預(yù)測(cè)原理進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的闡述。與此同時(shí)提出結(jié)合實(shí)際終端客戶(hù)訂單情況進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，在對(duì)比分析的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)訂單預(yù)測(cè)方法作出評(píng)價(jià)。 （4）結(jié)合具體紡機(jī)企業(yè)，對(duì)訂單預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行軟件開(kāi)發(fā)與驗(yàn)證。對(duì)紡機(jī)企業(yè)的訂單管理與預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了需求和目標(biāo)分析，研究系統(tǒng)的框架和開(kāi)發(fā)環(huán)境，并依據(jù)模型原理進(jìn)行功能結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)，最后在案例中對(duì)紡機(jī)企業(yè)的訂單管理與預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行實(shí)例應(yīng)用，為后續(xù)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的開(kāi)展提供有效可靠的訂單信息。 最后對(duì)全文的研究?jī)?nèi)容進(jìn)行總結(jié)，分析其存在的不足，并對(duì)課題的后續(xù)研究進(jìn)行展望。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of market and science and technology, the consumer demand shows a trend of diversification and differentiation. Spinning machine enterprises are faced with the huge challenge of reducing production cost, reducing waste and improving the quality of spinning machine products under the premise of meeting the diversified needs of customers. Order is the embodiment of customer demand and the life of enterprises. The research can solve the above problems effectively by making accurate order forecasting in the complex and changeable market environment. With the development of information technology, textile machinery manufacturing enterprises store a large number of historical data of sales orders in the database by adopting information management system. The changing characteristics and influencing factors of customer demand are analyzed, which is used as the research point of historical order data, and then the order prediction model is established. The main work of this paper is as follows: (1) the background and product characteristics of manufacturing industry are introduced. On this basis, the related knowledge and research status of order forecasting are introduced in detail, and the shortcomings of common order forecasting methods are pointed out. In this paper, the order forecasting model of spinning machine enterprises is proposed to meet customer demand. (2) the dialectical relationship between customer demand and order is expounded. On the basis of the standardization and integrity of historical sales data of spinning machine industry, This paper analyzes the importance of customer demand to order forecasting, and puts forward an order forecasting method from traditional time series forecasting method to customer demand forecasting method. (3) according to the real time sales data, Based on the analysis of changing characteristics of customer demand in spinning machine market, a new forecasting method of time series decomposing order based on fuzzy influence factor of customer demand is proposed. The modeling method and prediction principle used in this paper are also expounded. At the same time, the paper puts forward a comparative analysis of the actual end-customer order, and evaluates the forecasting method of the order on the basis of the comparative analysis. (4) combined with the specific spinning machine enterprise, The order prediction model is developed and validated. The requirements and objectives of the order management and prediction system of spinning machine enterprises are analyzed, the framework and development environment of the system are studied, and the functional structure is designed according to the principle of the model. Finally, an example is given to the order management and prediction system of spinning machine enterprises, which provides effective and reliable order information for the subsequent production activities. Finally, the paper summarizes the research content, analyzes its shortcomings, and looks forward to the future research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F426.81

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