本文選題：銀礦資源　切入點(diǎn)：灰色系統(tǒng)模型　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：礦產(chǎn)資源一直是國家和地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。2000年我國廢除白銀的“統(tǒng)購統(tǒng)銷”政策，白銀市場開放，近年來我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展導(dǎo)致白銀需求旺盛。在白銀需求量保持快速增長趨勢的前提下，未來我國銀礦資源能否支撐高速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長成為重要的科學(xué)和社會問題。因此，在全球化背景下，正確認(rèn)識全球銀礦資源格局，，科學(xué)把握我國的銀礦資源現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展趨勢，有效建立白銀需求定量預(yù)測模型，研究白銀的消費(fèi)需求特點(diǎn)及未來需求量，并對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提出相應(yīng)對策和建議，具有重要的理論和實(shí)際意義。 本文整理了大量數(shù)據(jù)文獻(xiàn)資料，概括了全球銀礦資源格局，及我國銀礦資源的開發(fā)利用現(xiàn)狀；在歷史的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)差分自回歸移動平均法ARIMA(p, d,q)和灰色預(yù)測法GM（1,1），分別對我國制造業(yè)白銀需求進(jìn)行建模和預(yù)測，進(jìn)行對比預(yù)測研究；本文進(jìn)一步采用ARIMA模型和情景分析法對全球白銀制造業(yè)分消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的需求量進(jìn)行了定量預(yù)測，并對我國銀礦資源的發(fā)展提出了建議。 本文主要取得以下成果：（1）全球銀礦資源豐富，儲量較為集中，目前全球白銀供需基本平衡；我國銀礦資源豐富，但以共伴生為主，資源稟賦較差，國內(nèi)白銀供不應(yīng)求，依靠進(jìn)口維持供需平衡。（2）通過對比研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)灰色系統(tǒng)模型GM（1,1）在少量樣本數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測方面優(yōu)于時間序列模型，灰色預(yù)測模型更適合對我國白銀需求作預(yù)測。（3）根據(jù)灰色預(yù)測模型對我國制造業(yè)白銀需求量進(jìn)行研究，結(jié)果顯示，在未來一段時期內(nèi)，白銀需求量仍將保持上升的趨勢；對全球制造業(yè)白銀需求的定量預(yù)測結(jié)果顯示，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)在未來將會逐漸成為全球白銀最大的消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域，而攝影業(yè)受數(shù)碼產(chǎn)品影響會逐漸衰退直到消失。
[Abstract]:Mineral resources have always been the important material basis for national and regional economic development. In 2000, China abolished the "unified purchase and marketing" policy of silver, and the silver market opened up. The rapid development of China's economy in recent years has led to the exuberant demand for silver. On the premise of maintaining the rapid growth trend of silver demand, it is an important scientific and social issue whether the silver resources in China can support the rapid economic growth in the future. Under the background of globalization, we should correctly understand the pattern of silver resources in the world, scientifically grasp the present situation and development trend of silver resources in China, effectively establish a quantitative forecasting model of silver demand, and study the characteristics of consumption demand and future demand of silver. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for sustainable economic development in China. Based on the historical consumption data, this paper summarizes the global pattern of silver resources and the present situation of the development and utilization of silver resources in China. According to the difference autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) method and the grey forecast method (GM1 / 1), the silver demand of manufacturing industry in China is modeled and forecasted, and the comparison and prediction are carried out. In this paper, ARIMA model and scenario analysis method are used to predict the demand of silver manufacturing industry in the field of consumption quantitatively, and some suggestions for the development of silver ore resources in China are put forward. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the world is rich in silver resources, and its reserves are relatively concentrated. At present, the global silver supply and demand are basically balanced; China is rich in silver resources, but mainly associated with them, with poor resource endowment, and domestic silver supply exceeds supply. Through comparative study, it is found that the grey system model GM1 / 1) is superior to the time series model in predicting a small number of sample data. Grey forecasting model is more suitable for forecasting silver demand in China. (3) according to grey forecasting model, the silver demand of manufacturing industry in China will be studied. The result shows that the silver demand will keep rising in the future. Quantitative forecasts of global silver demand in manufacturing suggest that the photovoltaic industry will gradually become the world's largest consumer of silver in the future, while photography will recede from digital products until it disappears.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F416.1

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