本文關鍵詞： 利率市場化 信貸歧視 經(jīng)濟增長 CGE模型　出處：《湖南大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國積極地調(diào)整利率總體水平以及利率結(jié)構，改善利率管理體制為利率的自由化奠定扎實的基礎。1993年黨的第十四屆三種全會第一次提出利率市場化，截止2014年我國的市場化進程已經(jīng)走過約20個年頭，期間內(nèi)我國的利率市場化取得了巨大的成就。首先放開了銀行間同業(yè)拆借利率，并于1996年和2007年分別構建了Chibor和Shibor，逐步構建了市場化的利率體系；隨后通過放開債券利率管制，使得包括國債、銀行間現(xiàn)券交易以及銀行間回購交易在內(nèi)的多種債券實現(xiàn)了市場化；最后逐漸放松存貸款率的管制，到2014年初為止，我國僅對存款利率存在上限管制，基本形成了以Shibor為短期、國債為長期的市場化利率體系。改革雖已取得了顯著的成效，但面臨的問題仍然嚴峻，存款利率上限管制造就了實際利率低于均衡水平、信貸歧視現(xiàn)象顯著以及金融業(yè)投資效率不高的問題。 隨著金融改革的推進，存款利率的管制放松將成為必然選擇，而利率市場化意味著利率競爭格局逐步形成，并將對實體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深刻影響。 進而本文基于利率市場化（存款利率上限管制放松）對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機理，首先使用1990-2010年，我國24個工業(yè)行業(yè)的面板數(shù)據(jù)通過廣義最小二乘法檢驗了利率歧視的分行業(yè)特征，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國信貸歧視現(xiàn)象確實由于國有企業(yè)的行業(yè)分布的越位和缺位特征存在于行業(yè)間。繼而，基于中國動態(tài)可計算一般均衡模型（Chinagem）的基礎上，基于投資行為的視角構建了信貸歧視的動態(tài)CGE模型，刻畫了當前利率市場化改革的影響特征，分別模擬整體利率水平提高、分行業(yè)利率歧視消除、以及金融服務增效此三條路徑的動態(tài)影響及綜合影響。研究結(jié)果表明，盡管整體利率水平提高不利于中國經(jīng)濟長期增長，但隨著利率歧視的消除，，行業(yè)結(jié)構在長期進一步優(yōu)化，減緩了投資規(guī)模和經(jīng)濟增長的下降程度，并帶來了較為顯著的就業(yè)效應。長期而言，改革更多的福利源于金融行業(yè)挖掘增長潛力后帶來的對其他行業(yè)的服務增效，最終為中國長期經(jīng)濟增長帶來了較大的空間。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has actively adjusted the overall level of interest rates and the structure of interest rates, and improved the interest rate management system to lay a solid foundation for the liberalization of interest rates. In 1993, the third Plenary session of the 14th CPC Congress proposed the marketization of interest rates for the first time. As of 2014, the marketization process of our country has gone through about 20 years. During this period, great achievements have been made in the marketization of interest rates in our country. In 1996 and 2007, respectively, Chibor and Shiborestablished a market-oriented interest rate system. Many kinds of bonds, such as inter-bank bond trading and inter-bank repo transaction, have been marketized. Finally, the regulation of deposit and loan rate has been gradually relaxed. Until early 2014, China only has the upper limit control on deposit interest rate, which basically takes Shibor as the short-term. National debt is a long-term market-oriented interest rate system. Although the reform has achieved remarkable results, the problems facing it are still severe. The upper limit control of deposit interest rates has resulted in the actual interest rate being below the equilibrium level. The phenomenon of credit discrimination is obvious and the investment efficiency of financial industry is not high. With the development of financial reform, the deregulation of deposit interest rate will become an inevitable choice, and the marketization of interest rate means that the pattern of interest rate competition is gradually formed and will have a profound impact on the development of real economy. Then, based on the mechanism of interest rate liberalization (deregulation of the upper limit of deposit interest rate) on economic growth, this paper first uses 1990-2010. The panel data of 24 industries in China tested the subsectoral characteristics of interest rate discrimination by using the generalized least square method, and found that the phenomenon of credit discrimination in China is indeed due to the offside and absence characteristics of the industry distribution of state-owned enterprises. Based on the Chinese dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this paper constructs a dynamic CGE model of credit discrimination from the perspective of investment behavior, depicts the influence characteristics of the current interest rate marketization reform, and simulates the improvement of the overall interest rate level, respectively. Elimination of interest rate discrimination by industry, and dynamic and comprehensive effects of the three paths of increasing interest rates in financial services. The results of the study show that although the overall interest rate level is not conducive to the long-term growth of the Chinese economy, with the elimination of interest rate discrimination, The industry structure has been further optimized in the long run, slowing down the decline in investment size and economic growth, and bringing about a more significant employment effect. In the long run, The reform of more welfare comes from the service efficiency of other industries after the financial industry exploits its growth potential, and finally brings more space for China's long-term economic growth.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F124;F822.0

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