本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)企業(yè) 財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警 因子分析　出處：《哈爾濱理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自2003年我國經(jīng)濟開始大幅度增長以來，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)隨著宏觀經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)迅猛的發(fā)展態(tài)勢，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)也如雨后春筍般誕生。但是自2008年開始，國家針對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)過熱的問題進行了一系列的宏觀調(diào)控，從“國五條”到“國八條”再到“新國五條”，每一項政策的施行，都對過熱的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)起到降溫的作用。國家在對房地產(chǎn)市場降溫的同時，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險也隨之加大。因此，在宏觀經(jīng)濟形勢不斷波動及國家調(diào)控政策不斷出臺的背景下，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)若想在行業(yè)中立于不敗之地，對于自身所處的環(huán)境要有清晰認(rèn)識的基礎(chǔ)上，更要對企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險進行有效的預(yù)警和防控，這不僅是房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)能夠保持穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的前提，，更是對投資者、政府管理當(dāng)局和銀行等金融機構(gòu)得到準(zhǔn)確的財務(wù)信息的重要保障。 以往關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的文獻中，大部分學(xué)者都是站在企業(yè)內(nèi)部的角度，針對企業(yè)內(nèi)部可能對財務(wù)風(fēng)險產(chǎn)生的因素進行風(fēng)險預(yù)警及防控，沒有充分考慮外部因素的波動對企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險的影響。因此，本文在總結(jié)了前人們的研究基礎(chǔ)上從分析房地產(chǎn)業(yè)行業(yè)特征和房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務(wù)特征入手，著重分析出導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險的重要因素，并結(jié)合外部環(huán)境的變遷對財務(wù)風(fēng)險形成的機理進行詳細(xì)的剖析。依據(jù)財務(wù)指標(biāo)和非財務(wù)指標(biāo)設(shè)計出是否與企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況同步波動的先導(dǎo)指標(biāo)、同步指標(biāo)和滯后指標(biāo)。運用因子分析方法對先導(dǎo)指標(biāo)、同步指標(biāo)、滯后指標(biāo)和綜合預(yù)警指標(biāo)進行篩選和計算，依據(jù)綜合預(yù)警指標(biāo)的數(shù)值判斷企業(yè)所屬的警度大小。最后根據(jù)風(fēng)險雷達定位圖定位出企業(yè)具體的風(fēng)險來源及影響因子較大的變量，有側(cè)重性的對產(chǎn)生財務(wù)風(fēng)險的因素進行風(fēng)險防控，選取相應(yīng)的防控措施。
[Abstract]:Since 2003, when the economy of our country began to grow by a large margin, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly with the development of the macro economy, and the real estate enterprises have been springing up. But since 2008, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly. The state has carried out a series of macro-control measures against the overheating of the real estate industry, from "National five" to "State eight" to "New State five". Both play a role in cooling the overheated real estate industry. While the state is cooling down the real estate market, the financial risks of real estate enterprises also increase. Under the background of the constant fluctuation of the macroeconomic situation and the continuous promulgation of the national regulation and control policies, if the real estate enterprises want to be invincible in the industry, they should have a clear understanding of their own environment. More importantly, it is necessary to carry out effective early warning and prevention and control of the financial risks of enterprises. This is not only a prerequisite for the stable development of real estate enterprises, but also a prerequisite for investors. Government authorities and banks and other financial institutions to obtain accurate financial information an important guarantee. In the previous literature on financial risk early warning of real estate industry, most scholars are from the angle of enterprise interior, and carry out risk warning and prevention and control to the factors that may produce financial risk in the enterprise. The influence of the fluctuation of external factors on the financial risk of the enterprise is not fully considered. Therefore, this paper begins with the analysis of the industry characteristics of the real estate industry and the financial characteristics of the real estate enterprise on the basis of summarizing the previous studies. Focusing on the analysis of the important factors leading to the financial risks of real estate enterprises, Combined with the change of external environment, the mechanism of financial risk formation is analyzed in detail. According to the financial index and non-financial index, the pilot index is designed to synchronize with the enterprise's financial situation. Factor analysis is used to screen and calculate the leading index, synchronization index, lag index and comprehensive early warning index. Finally, according to the risk radar positioning map, the specific risk sources of the enterprise and the variables with large influence factors are identified. Focus on the risk prevention and control of the financial risk factors, select the corresponding prevention and control measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 葉永其;;企業(yè)合同管理中房地產(chǎn)財務(wù)的重要作用[J];財經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2016年23期

2 卞曉燕;;基于房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險與管理的研究[J];財會學(xué)習(xí);2016年21期

3 楊露露;;房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險問題研究[J];品牌;2015年11期

4 吳婷;;調(diào)控政策下房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務(wù)預(yù)警探討[J];商;2015年43期

5 高宇;;保險財務(wù)風(fēng)險形成的原因危害及對策[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟信息;2015年09期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 趙媛;LW房地產(chǎn)公司籌資優(yōu)化研究[D];吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué);2015年

2 趙偉;基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電力企業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險管理研究[D];華北電力大學(xué);2015年

本文編號：1546364