本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 因子分析法　出處：《西華大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)也在高速發(fā)展中，許多企業(yè)紛紛擠入房地產(chǎn)投資的行列。在房地產(chǎn)迅猛發(fā)展的背后，同時(shí)出現(xiàn)了房?jī)r(jià)上漲過快、住房結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、空置率高等問題，部分城市已出現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)泡沫。面對(duì)如此形式，國(guó)家不斷出臺(tái)了一系列針對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)宏觀調(diào)控的政策。房地產(chǎn)作為一種特殊的商品，其投資金額大，資金回收期長(zhǎng)，，這就使得房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)在投資過程中必然承受巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在緊縮的宏觀調(diào)控政策下，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)必然加大。準(zhǔn)確分析房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，了解政策調(diào)控動(dòng)向，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行正確的分析評(píng)價(jià)，能為房地產(chǎn)投資企業(yè)提供參考和借鑒，使得房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)對(duì)投資進(jìn)行正確決策，降低房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文針對(duì)目前房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，提出了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容，制定了一套技術(shù)路線，然后對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了綜述，提出目前研究狀況的不合理，期待尋找一種合理的分析方法。 其次，本文對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了闡述，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分類，將其分為系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和非系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。并對(duì)目前房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行了描述，主要包括專家打分法、敏感性分析法、蒙特卡洛法、模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法。 本文重點(diǎn)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)綜合調(diào)控政策、金融政策、稅收政策、土地政策進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，分析了調(diào)控政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的影響，提出一套房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)。并選取成都市相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，采用因子分析法對(duì)成都市的房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，分析出成都市房地產(chǎn)主要投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及影響因素。 最后，根據(jù)分析得出的結(jié)論，為房地產(chǎn)投資企業(yè)降低投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy is in rapid development, many enterprises have to squeeze into the ranks of real estate investment. Behind the rapid development of real estate, at the same time, housing prices rose too fast, the housing structure is unreasonable, the vacancy rate high, has been part of the city real estate bubble. In the face of such a form, the state has introduced a series of macro-control on the real estate market policy. The real estate as a special commodity, the large amount of investment, long payback period, which makes the real estate enterprises in the investment process will bear great risks. In the tightening macro-control policies, the real estate enterprise investment risk will increase. Accurate analysis of the development of the real estate market, understand the policy trends, analysis and evaluation of the right of real estate investment risk for real estate The investment enterprises provide reference and reference to make the real estate enterprises make the correct decision on investment and reduce the risk of real estate investment.
Aiming at the current development of the real estate market, this paper puts forward the research contents of this paper, and develops a set of technology routes. Then, it summarizes the related research on real estate investment risk at home and abroad, and points out that the current research situation is unreasonable, and expects to find a reasonable analysis method.
Secondly, this paper elaborates the related concept of real estate investment risk, the real estate investment risk classification will be divided into system risk and non system risk. The main method of evaluating real estate investment risk are described, including the expert scoring method, sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo method, fuzzy comprehensive the evaluation method.
This paper focuses on the real estate regulation policy, financial policy, tax policy, land policy is summarized, analyzed the impact of regulatory policy on the real estate market, a real estate investment risk evaluation index. And select the data of Chengdu, using the factor analysis method of real estate investment risk in Chengdu city for empirical research. Analysis of the main factors of Chengdu City real estate investment risk and impact.
Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, some suggestions are put forward for the real estate investment enterprises to reduce the investment risk.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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