本文關鍵詞： 上市銀行 經濟增加值 企業(yè)價值　出處：《安徽大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：作為國民經濟的重要組成部分,銀行業(yè)關系著國家金融體系的安全與穩(wěn)定。與此同時,上市銀行股也是整個股市的重中之重,決定著證券市場的發(fā)展方向。隨著我國金融改革步伐的加快,銀行類上市公司的估值問題已經引起越來越多的關注。因此,本文旨在選用科學的評估方法估計出我國所有上市銀行的價值進而指導投資者理性投資。 本文首先對上市銀行價值評估的研究背景及意義進行了簡要的概述,并簡單闡述了本文的研究內容和結構,然后回顧了國內外學者關于EVA指標的研究現(xiàn)狀,并對其進行了總結評價,接著分別指出了本文的創(chuàng)新點和不足之處；其次,對傳統(tǒng)的價值評估方法進行了考察,分析了現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法、相對估值法、期權定價法和EVA估值法的優(yōu)缺點,并將EVA估值法與其他三種方法進行比較得出EVA估值法在評估企業(yè)價值上更具有科學性和合理性；再次,對EVA估值模型進行分類介紹,選擇出適用于上市銀行的EVA兩階段估值模型,并詳細介紹了上市銀行EVA值計算過程中各個項目的確定以及相關會計科目的會計調整。在此基礎上,本文對所有上市銀行進行基于EVA模型的實證分析：首先計算了所有上市銀行2012年的EVA和REVA指標,并據此分析各上市銀行的經營績效,結果表明在我國上市的所有銀行中,股份制商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)績表現(xiàn)最好,國有商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力處于中等水平,城市商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)績表現(xiàn)參差不齊；然后利用各上市銀行2010-2012年年報中的相關數(shù)據,預測出上市銀行2013-2015年的EVA值,再根據EVA兩階段估值模型,計算出2012年末各上市銀行的企業(yè)價值及每股價值,并與滬深股市中的各上市銀行的現(xiàn)實股價進行對比分析。最后,基于實證分析結果,從規(guī)模性和成長性兩個方面入手,發(fā)掘出中國農業(yè)銀行、興業(yè)銀行、中國民生銀行、招商銀行和寧波銀行這五家銀行更加具有投資價值,進而為投資者提供投資建議。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the national economy, the banking industry is related to the security and stability of the national financial system. At the same time, the listed bank shares are also the most important part of the whole stock market. With the acceleration of the pace of financial reform in China, the valuation of bank listed companies has attracted more and more attention. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the value of all listed banks in China by using scientific evaluation methods and to guide investors to invest rationally. Firstly, this paper briefly summarizes the research background and significance of the valuation of listed banks, and briefly describes the research content and structure of this paper. Then review the domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of EVA indicators, and evaluate it, and then point out the innovation and shortcomings of this paper; Secondly, the traditional valuation methods are investigated, and the advantages and disadvantages of discounted cash flow method, relative valuation method, option pricing method and EVA valuation method are analyzed. Comparing the EVA valuation method with the other three methods, it is concluded that the EVA valuation method is more scientific and reasonable in evaluating the enterprise value. Thirdly, the EVA valuation model is classified and introduced, and the two-stage EVA valuation model suitable for listed banks is selected. And detailed introduction of listed banks in the process of calculating the EVA value of each project and accounting adjustments related to the accounting. On this basis. This paper carries on the empirical analysis of all listed banks based on EVA model: firstly, the EVA and REVA indexes of all listed banks in 2012 are calculated, and the operating performance of each listed bank is analyzed accordingly. The results show that among all the banks listed in China, the performance of joint-stock commercial banks is the best, the profitability of state-owned commercial banks is at a medium level, and the performance of urban commercial banks is uneven. Then using the relevant data of the 2010-2012 annual report of each listed bank, the EVA value of the listed bank in 2013-2015 is forecasted, and then according to the two-stage valuation model of EVA. The enterprise value and the value per share of each listed bank in end of 2012 are calculated and compared with the real stock price of each listed bank in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market. Finally, based on the empirical analysis results. From the two aspects of scale and growth, find out the Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial Bank, Minsheng Bank of China, China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, these five banks have more investment value. In turn, investors to provide investment advice.
【學位授予單位】：安徽大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.33

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本文編號：1450850