本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城鎮(zhèn)化 房地產(chǎn)業(yè) VAR模型 面板數(shù)據(jù) 聚類(lèi)分析　出處：《上海師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：B前，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中發(fā)揮著越來(lái)越重要的作用，我國(guó)的城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)也正處于快速發(fā)展階段。在過(guò)去的幾十年中，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)中發(fā)揮著重要的支持作用，而城鎮(zhèn)化速度的加快又帶動(dòng)了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程給房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展規(guī)模化帶來(lái)了機(jī)遇同時(shí)也帶來(lái)了挑戰(zhàn)。隨著房地產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大，住房供應(yīng)量不斷增加，也出現(xiàn)了比如房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快上漲，各地區(qū)發(fā)展不均衡等很多M題。因此，在我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化快速度發(fā)展的背景下，，對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化水平與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模之問(wèn)的相關(guān)性分析，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)未來(lái)發(fā)展的定位以及如何更加有效的控制和優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模的研究顯得尤為重要。本文主要采用定性.分析和定量分析和結(jié)合的方法，從城鎮(zhèn)化視角對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模進(jìn)行研究，通過(guò)建立城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模作用的理論體系，對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程屮房地產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析，探討城鎮(zhèn)化水平與我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模的影響關(guān)系，關(guān)注城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模的影響程度，最后通過(guò)對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析提出合理的對(duì)策和建議。 本文共分為五個(gè)部分一：第部分為緒論，主要包括論文研宄背景，研究目的和意義，研宄內(nèi)容、方法及研究結(jié)構(gòu)，以及本文的主要貢獻(xiàn)。第二部分為相關(guān)理論及文獻(xiàn)綜述,首先是對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模的涵義和特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行概述，并進(jìn)一步分析了其影響因素及測(cè)度指標(biāo)。其次是對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的研宄狀況進(jìn)行了綜述。第三部分為理論分析部分，在對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述的基礎(chǔ)上,從定量和定性的角度分析了城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模的影響作用。第四部分為實(shí)證部分，首先基于向量自回歸(VAR)模型，分析了城鎮(zhèn)化水平與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系。其次運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型分區(qū)域分層次對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化水平對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模的影響進(jìn)行了分析。分析結(jié)果表明：我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化水平對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模足有正|nj的影響關(guān)系，并且影響的程度在不同的區(qū)域和城市M是有一定差異的。最后，針對(duì)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果提出了政策性建議。第五部為木文的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Before B, the real estate industry plays a more and more important role in the national economy, the urbanization construction of our country is also in the rapid development stage. The real estate industry plays an important supporting role in the urbanization construction of our country. The acceleration of urbanization has led to the development of the real estate industry. The urbanization process has brought opportunities and challenges to the development of the real estate industry. With the expansion of the real estate industry scale. Housing supply continues to increase, such as the rapid rise in housing prices, uneven development in various regions and many other M problems. Therefore, in the context of rapid urbanization in China. The correlation analysis of urbanization level and real estate industry development scale. The orientation of the future development of the real estate industry and how to control and optimize the scale of the development of the real estate industry is particularly important. This paper mainly adopts the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and combination. This paper studies the scale of real estate industry development from the perspective of urbanization, and analyzes the current situation of the development of real estate industry scale through the establishment of a theoretical system of the effect of urbanization on the scale of real estate industry. This paper discusses the relationship between the urbanization level and the development scale of real estate industry in China, and pays attention to the influence degree of the increase of urbanization level on the development scale of real estate industry. Finally, through the analysis of the empirical results, reasonable countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. This paper is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, mainly including the research background, research purpose and significance, research content, methods and research structure. And the main contributions of this paper. The second part is related theory and literature review, first of all, the meaning and characteristics of urbanization and real estate scale are summarized. And further analysis of its impact factors and measurement indicators. Secondly, the research situation at home and abroad is summarized. The third part is the theoretical analysis part. On the basis of describing the process of urbanization and the development of real estate industry in China, this paper analyzes the impact of urbanization on the development of real estate industry in China from the perspective of quantitative and qualitative analysis. Part 4th is the empirical part. First of all, it is based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The interaction between urbanization level and real estate industry development scale is analyzed. Secondly, the influence of urbanization level on real estate industry development scale is analyzed by using panel data model. The results show that:. The level of urbanization in china has a positive impact on the development of real estate industry. And the degree of influence is different in different regions and cities. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations. 5th parts of the conclusions are in the paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.21;F299.23

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